Lithuania blockades Kaliningrad, and Russia can fight back with one move!

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Author: vertical and horizontal source: Zhonghua city (id:hqsycn)

Lithuania banned the transit of Russian goods and indirectly blocked Kaliningrad, which had at least two impacts on Russia:

First, it directly caused difficulties for the people’s livelihood and material security in Kaliningrad;

Second, Russia indirectly lost an outlet to the sea, because Russian local goods could not be exported from Kaliningrad;

From this point of view, the damage done to Russia is not small.

In response, some Russian experts began to think of counter measures, such as “not recognizing the independence of Lithuania”, “Abolishing the agreement with the EU on Lithuania”, “demanding the return of kleipeda” and “cutting off the power supply of Russia’s rival countries”.

These tactics are all “soft lethality” and do not play an essential role. If the territorial issue can be solved by “lip service”, there will be few wars in the world.

How to solve Lithuania’s blockade of Kaliningrad? The author once put forward an idea.

Lithuania has four weaknesses, namely “political weakness”, “national weakness”, “refugee weakness” and “geographical weakness”.

The “geopolitical weakness” refers to the suwauki corridor and the Baltic Sea.

The suwauki corridor is a section of the border between Lithuania and Poland, with a length of more than 110 kilometers. It is the only land channel between the Baltic three countries and NATO. At its eastern end is Belarus, and at its western end is Kaliningrad, Russia, with heavy troops stationed at both East and West ends.

If Russia can open up this corridor, it will not only allow Russia to directly connect Kaliningrad from the land through Belarus, but also cut off the land links between the three Baltic countries and NATO. It can even use Kaliningrad to blockade the three Baltic countries from the sea. With this move, it can complete the anti war against Lithuania.


? suwauki corridor (drawing: flower planting city)

Here are two points, I have to say:

Although Lithuania is a member of NATO, Ukraine and even the whole Eastern Europe are just the isolation belt used by the old NATO to isolate the threat from Russia, and only use them as pawns to protect their own security. This means that Russia will not fight Ukraine, even if it fights other countries in Eastern Europe and Northern Europe. It is inevitable that Laobei dating will strongly support it, but it may not end up in person. Although they have NATO common defense provisions, in the face of interest calculation, agreements and commitments are often abandoned at any time and unreliable at critical moments.

Another point is that the United States dare not play with Russia. First, Eastern Europe and Northern Europe are not the core interest areas of the United States, but the life and death line of Russia. The United States does not need to compete with Russia; Second, both countries are nuclear powers, and the United States will not gamble on mutual destruction for non core interests; Third, once both sides lose with Russia, the United States will no longer be able to contain China, and at the same time, its hegemony will collapse and become a third rate country.

With these two points, it is feasible for Russia to open up the suwauki corridor.

If this move can be completed, it will not only benefit from the above-mentioned benefits, but also bring two other benefits to Russia, namely, easing / lifting the threat of Eastern Europe and Northern Europe entering the treaty and smashing the NATO system.

Lithuania is a member of NATO. If it is attacked by military forces but NATO does not dare to move, it will make other countries who want to join NATO see that “it is useless to join NATO, or it is unsafe to join NATO”, which will largely break the dream of countries such as Finland and Sweden to join NATO, so as to alleviate Russia’s peripheral threats;

Originally, when Russia attacked Ukraine, NATO dared not come to the end. People have seen that NATO is fierce but weak. If Lithuania is attacked again and NATO remains indifferent, people will see a virtually useless NATO, which will be a change to the world order.

Of course, we should not only look at the positive aspects of everything, but also look at its negative aspects. If NATO wants to play a game with Russia, either Russia retreats from difficulties, resulting in Russia’s image of “soft” in front of NATO, or NATO’s war with Russia, the consequences are unpredictable.

This means that Russia has opened up the suwauki corridor. Although the benefits are great, the risks are also great. The gamble is whether the old NATO dares to come down and play in person.

At the same time, Russia also faces some hidden difficulties. Russia’s CPI in May has reached as high as 17.1%, which is not the only “skin wound” Russia suffered from the Russia Ukraine war as the outside world said; The oil price cannot be so high all the time. After the war, due to the weak demand and the law of the economic cycle, the oil price will fall sooner or later; After the war, Russian energy will lose the European market… These are all potential problems of Russia, but they are covered up by the current Russian Ukrainian war and the strength of the ruble.

Lithuania, a small country, dares to block Kaliningrad and face Russia, but it is only because Russia dares not to gamble. First, ignorance and fearlessness originated from Lithuania, and ignorant people are the most daring; Second, they think that Russia and Ukraine are in a fierce battle and dare not start another one; Third, Russia does not dare to attack itself because it considers itself a NATO member.

In short, in this gamble, Lithuania or the United States has raised money. It depends on whether Russia dares to follow!

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