Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
After the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia was surrounded by a circle of “hostile countries”. Former allies and brotherhood have defected to the side of their opponents. Among them, Poland and Lithuania are the most representative. They insist on the anti Russian cause as both faith and business.
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, Poland and Lithuania raised their anti Russian cause to an unprecedented height.
Today, let’s take a look at Lithuania’s latest anti Russian performance.
01 small country performance
On June 18, Lithuanian authorities announced that a ban had come into effect: Forbidding Russian Railways to transport goods subject to EU sanctions to Kaliningrad.
The sanctions list mainly includes coal, metals, building materials, etc., involving about 50% of Kaliningrad’s imported goods.
——The problem is serious. Because Kaliningrad is heavily dependent on Lithuanian transportation lines for material supply.
To add fuel to the fire, by June 21, Lithuania had expanded the scope of transit transport prohibition in Kaliningrad state from railway transport to road transport.
After the railway and road embargoes, Kaliningrad was blockaded on land.
This should be the most naked land blockade Russia has encountered since World War II. This made Russia furious. Because these routines of Lithuania are more provocative than the so-called Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
In the past, Russia always bullied others. This time, Lithuania bullied them. Who can bear it. Russia is angry:
First of all, he expressed strong protest, said that this was an “unprecedented” hostile act of Lithuania, and demanded that Lithuania immediately lift the restrictions.
Secondly, it gave a stern warning that it would take necessary measures to “make the Baltic countries feel pain” in response to the actions of the parties.
Many gourd eaters began to imagine:
How will Russia retaliate against Lithuania?
If Russia engages in Lithuania, how will the North date react?
Will NATO go to war with Russia to trigger the third world war?
Before analyzing this issue, let’s look at the title. I used the word “flirting”.
Kaliningrad covers an area of only 15000 square kilometers and has a permanent population of about 1million. Compared with the vast territory of Russia, this area looks like a corner of a bullet; But it is extremely important to Russia. Let’s first look at a picture:
Although Kaliningrad is now a Russian territory, it does not border on Russia.
Geographically, Kaliningrad has only two neighbors:
Bordering Poland to the South; To the west is the Baltic Sea;
It borders Lithuania in the northeast and East.
The pipeline transporting energy to Kaliningrad shall pass through Lithuania; The railway transporting materials also needs to pass through Lithuania.
There is only one railway between Russia and Kaliningrad, and Lithuania is the only place; As for road transport, it also needs to transit through Lithuania.
Kaliningrad’s importance to Russia is reflected in the following aspects:
1. Economic importance.
Kaliningrad is within the European Union. Compared with most regions of Russia, Kaliningrad is relatively good economically.
Once Lithuania blockades the land, Russia’s supplies to Kaliningrad can only be transported by sea. From the Gulf of Finland near St. Petersburg to the southernmost end of the Baltic Sea, the cost will also rise sharply after a long circle.
2. Military importance.
Baltisk port in Kaliningrad is one of the few ice free ports in Russia and the base of the Baltic Fleet, one of the four major Russian fleets.
When the color revolution in Ukraine turned to the west, the most direct evil result was to threaten the Crimea Black Sea fleet. So Russia did not hesitate to take away Crimea. If Kaliningrad loses control, the Baltic Fleet will also become rootless duckweeds. Russia will never allow that to happen.
3. Geographical importance.
Historically, the land route for western countries (Sweden, France and Germany) to attack Russia is the Bode plain, while Kaliningrad can guard the land and sea route from central and Western Europe to Russia at the same time.
Kaliningrad guards the Baltic Sea and Bode plain, and is close to Warsaw (400 km away), Berlin, Copenhagen, Stockholm (all about 600 km away) and many other famous European cities.
In peacetime, Kaliningrad is an important window for Russia to communicate with the West.
In the war years, Kaliningrad was a fortress, especially a threat to Poland and Lithuania.
Thus, Kaliningrad can be regarded as the heart of Russia. In doing so, Lithuania is tantamount to using the most rogue means to tease sensitive spots in Russia, similar to Agui bullying little nuns.
The difference is that there is no consequence for Agui to bully the little nun; Lithuania bullies Russia and is likely to suffer destruction.
So in the face of what Lithuania has done, Russia is very angry.
03 Lithuanian routine
Slotsky, an official of the Russian State Duma, strongly criticized that the blockade of Kaliningrad was “shameless and hypocritical”.
Klimov, chairman of the Committee for the protection of sovereignty of the Russian Federal Council, warned that the blockade of Kaliningrad was regarded as “direct aggression” and would force Russia to “resort to self-defense” and “let go of its hands and feet to solve the problem by any means”.
In the face of Russian anger, Lithuania’s small heart is also shaking. Although Ukraine has resisted Russia for so long, Lithuania’s size and combat effectiveness cannot be compared with Ukraine.
However, Lithuania also has an advantage, that is, it has a backer to throw the pot.
Lithuania is both an EU member and a NATO member, backed by the EU and NATO.
The first move is to pull out the backing of the EU.
Lithuanian foreign minister ranzbergis explained, “this decision was made after consultation with the European Commission.”
In other words, Lithuania is “acting on the orders of the (EU)”, throwing Russia’s angry cauldron to the EU, saying that it is innocent. This is a blatant gesture of green tea.
Second, Lithuania emphasizes that it has no omni-directional blockade, and passengers and goods without sanctions pass through as usual. This explanation made Russia more angry.
Lithuania does not have a blind corner blockade. For example, the oil urgently needed in Europe is not sealed. This is a selective blockade, which is beneficial to Europe; Specially seal the materials needed by Kaliningrad.
This is an unbridled flirtation with Russia.
Third, rely on NATO for support.
Although Lithuania is small in size, its ancestors were once broad. In the middle of the 16th century, Lithuania and Poland (the two most frequently partitioned countries in Europe) established the Polish Lithuanian Federation. In their heyday, the land area reached an astonishing 1million square kilometers, which can be called one of the largest countries in Europe.
The Polish Lithuanian Federation once defeated the Teutonic Knights; Moscow Grand Duchy, which was established with the Slavs, had many wars and even occupied Moscow for a time.
However, the geomancy took turns. Lithuania soon declined under the strangulation of Sweden, tsarist Russia, Prussia and Austria, and was divided one after another.
In the first World War, Lithuania was annexed by Germany and became independent after the war.
During World War II (1940), the Soviet Union took advantage of the situation and annexed the three Baltic countries including Lithuania.
In 1941, Germany launched the Barbarosa plan to attack the Soviet Union; Soon the Baltic Sea was annexed.
At the end of World War II, the Soviet Union pushed against Germany and annexed Lithuania again.
In half a century, Lithuania was repeatedly annexed by Germany and the Soviet Union four times, leaving a huge psychological shadow. Although annexed by the Soviet Union, Lithuania is very exclusive and has always excluded the Slavs.
Even in the Soviet era, the proportion of Slavs in Lithuania was very low (from 1939 to 1989, the proportion of Russians in Lithuania’s total population never exceeded 10%), and separatism was very serious. At that time in 1990, Lithuania took the lead in becoming independent, marking the beginning of the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
After independence, Lithuania became the most anti Russian country in Europe. In fact, too many annexations have left too much psychological shadow. We should tell the world through anti Russia that Lithuania is different from Russia.
Anti Russia has become the belief of Lithuania.
It is precisely because of this extreme sense of insecurity that Lithuania has decided to cling to the thighs of extraterritorial powers.
Of course, the thickest thigh is the United States. Lithuania has become an anti Russian country holding the thigh of the United States.
When NATO expanded eastward, George W. Bush said, “Whoever invades Lithuania is the enemy of the US Army”. Lithuania immediately inscribed this on the outer wall of the city hall of Vilnius, the capital. It’s OK to be obsequious to this extent.
Lithuania’s dare to flirt with Russia in this way depends on its status as a member of NATO.
Seeing this, many melon eaters may wonder that Russia’s anger can drown Lithuania. Why use the word flirtation?
04 Russian counterattack
According to Russia’s character, two thunderbolt means can be used to counterattack.
First, they sent troops directly to destroy Lithuania.
Of course, the result is a direct conflict with NATO.
If Russia and NATO let go of fighting, it may end up in a nuclear war, and no one can afford it.
At present, this situation is unlikely to occur.
Second, send troops, but do not fight, but build a safe passage to ensure the safety of Russia’s cargo road to Kaliningrad. But this operation is very difficult.
Since Russia and Lithuania have no direct territorial border, it is likely to pass through Belarus. So it virtually brought Belarus in.
When Belarus was involved, NATO countries hostile to Russia, such as Lithuania and Poland, could borrow Belarus to make trouble. Then from Belarus to Lithuania, it may become another local battlefield.
The front line of Russia will be lengthened and it will face the situation of two front operations.
In addition, at this stage, Russia also wants to ease relations with the EU through Germany and France. It is unlikely that Lithuania will fight against EU members because of this move.
So at present, Russia is unlikely to do so.
In other words, although Lithuania is very annoying, the consequences of this deep flirtation with Russia will not be too serious.
But those who come out will have to pay back sooner or later. Russia will fight back sooner or later.