Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
I’m afraid Lithuania will have bad luck soon!
Why do you say that? There is a sentence in Hanfeizi: “those who are small but not inferior, those who are weak but not afraid of the strong, those who are rude and bully their neighbors, and those who are greedy and clumsy can die.” It means that a weak country can not maintain a humble attitude and a low profile. It is weak and has no awe for a strong country. It even offends a strong neighbor by being extremely rude and insulting him. Under such circumstances, it is enough to subjugate the country by being greedy, arbitrary and clumsy in diplomacy.
Why is Ukraine subjugating? It is precisely because they did not follow Han Feizi’s teachings, did not think clearly about their own country’s geographical position, humiliated their powerful neighbor Russia, and damaged the national security of neighboring countries, which eventually led to the war of annihilation.
Ukraine is being destroyed, and Lithuania, another small country in central and Eastern Europe, is also running on this road!
As we all know, there is an enclave between Russia, Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad, which is not connected with the Russian mainland. Located in the south of the Sambia Peninsula, this place, formerly known as konisburg, was first established by the northern crusader of the Teutonic Knights in 1255, and has been successively designated as the capital or capital by the Teutonic Knights, the Principality of Prussia and East Prussia. Konisburg was once one of the German cultural centers. It was occupied by the Soviet Red Army during World War II. Later, according to the Bostan proclamation, this territory was assigned to the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia inherited this enclave.
In the past, this enclave was mainly supplied by land from Belarus through Lithuania, supplemented by air and sea. However, Lithuania recently announced that the scope of transit transport prohibition in Kaliningrad has been expanded from railway transport to road transport, which means that the land supply line in Kaliningrad has been basically cut off and can only be supplied by sea from a very long distance. The cost will be very high. For example, goods such as iron ore, coal and building materials from other parts of Russia can only be transported to Kaliningrad by long-term sea.
On June 20, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement prohibiting Lithuania from transporting goods to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad via the railway in Lithuania, and warned that if Lithuania did not resume transportation, Russia would retaliate. The Russian side believes that the cubic measures violate international legal obligations, especially the joint statement signed by Russia and the European Union on the transit issue between Kaliningrad and other territories of the Russian Federation. If the goods transportation cannot be resumed in the near future, Russia reserves the right to take action to safeguard its national interests.
Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian President, also warned that Lithuania’s move was unprecedented and illegal, and the Russian side regarded it as part of the blockade of Russia. On the 20th, Lithuanian foreign minister gabrielius lantsbergis responded that the decision to prohibit transhipment of goods through Lithuania to the Russian enclave Kaliningrad was not made by Lithuania, but was made in accordance with the relevant EU sanctions against Russia.
For Russia, in the past, the supply of Kaliningrad mainly relied on railways and natural gas pipelines to obtain goods and energy from other regions of Russia. The only railway between Russia and the region passed through Lithuania. Based on the EU sanctions against Russia, the Lithuanian Railway Department informed Russia to take off and land on June 18 to restrict the transportation of goods between Russia and Kaliningrad. The prohibited goods include coal, metal Building materials and advanced technology related items, etc.
Lithuania’s behavior was regarded as hostile by Russia. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman zaharova responded that this was an “open hostile behavior”. Unless Lithuania immediately lifted these restrictions, Russia reserved the right to “defend its national interests”.
For Russia, Kaliningrad is not only a knife inserted into the EU, but also a worry of its own. Once the contradiction intensifies, such as Lithuania and Poland impose “close door” sanctions on Russia, Kaliningrad will lose the economic support of Russia and its operation will become very difficult. Will Russia abandon this enclave? Of course not, so he must take a series of measures. What measures will Russia take? For example, directly deploying more missiles in Kaliningrad to target Lithuania or EU countries, and blocking the border between Belarus and Lithuania may be Moscow’s counter-measures.
However, the risk of this incident is not such a short-term military deployment, or the blockade of the border of Belarus, or other counter-measures, but a systematic risk. Lithuania is both a member of the EU and a member of NATO. The reason why such a small country dares to provoke Russia is that the contradiction between NATO and Russia and the contradiction between the EU and Russia has fallen into irreconcilability. This irreconcilability means that all major risks are systematic.
At present, the conflict between Russia, NATO and the European Union still erupts in Ukraine, but the war in Ukraine will end one day. Now, we have seen that Russia’s strategic goal is very clear, that is, to “demilitarize” and “de Nazi” Ukraine. It also has a strong will to war. It will not stop until it reaches its goal. In the face of such a Russia, the United States and the West have imposed unprecedented sanctions. However, the overall economic damage of Russia in the past few months has not been significant. It has neither hurt nor moved its bones. On the contrary, it has become braver and braver with more wars. At present, although the war is still in eastern Ukraine, the war in northern Donetsk has come to an end. It is very dangerous to continue to fight in Ukraine, but it is difficult to stop the Russian army from continuing to advance only with the assistance of the West.
As Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) previously analyzed, once Russia really moves to the west of Ukraine, the United States and NATO countries are likely to allow the Polish army to enter Ukraine to block the Russian army in order to prevent the Russian army from further progress. It is almost inevitable for the two sides to break out military conflict in the west of Ukraine in the future.
The outcome of the war is uncertain. It is possible for both sides to strike a regional balance in western Ukraine, and Russia to establish a pro Russian “new Ukraine” puppet regime in central and western Ukraine to form a geopolitical buffer, so that both sides can be stable for a while. However, if the Russian army becomes braver and braver by that time, and directly drives the Polish army back to Poland, and Russia no longer establishes any buffer, and directly deploys the Russian army to the west of Ukraine, it means that Russia and NATO will face-to-face, face-to-face, and the contradiction will become more irreconcilable.
You can take a look at the map above. If Russia directly swallowed Ukraine, what will be the next focus of the competition between the two sides? Moldova buffer exists between Ukraine and Romania. Hungary has good relations with Russia. Slovakia’s relations with Russia in the past were not as intensified as those between Poland and the three Baltic countries. Obviously, Poland and the three Baltic countries will be the main focus.
Who is the most dangerous country among Poland and the three Baltic countries? Poland is the strongest of the above four countries, and if the Russian army and the Polish army have divided the victory stage by stage, Poland will temporarily converge. Among the three Baltic countries, Estonia and Latvia in the north are directly adjacent to Russia and have always been relatively restrained. Only Lithuania, a small country, has always been playing the most provocative country. More importantly, the railway from Russia to Kaliningrad passes through Lithuania, which determines that the contradiction between Russia and Lithuania is easier to intensify. Moreover, once the contradiction is further deepened and intensified, Russia will have the impulse to open up the Kaliningrad supply line.
In this way, what will happen when the contradictions between Russia and NATO are further intensified, and Ukraine is no longer a buffer for both sides? Once there is a direct conflict, Russia will certainly find weak points, and Russia will more advocate the inclusion of Belarus into the system. Belarus can only choose this. In this way, Lithuania will be included in any calculation.
More importantly, if NATO could not hold on to the western part of Ukraine in the face of Russia and watched Ukraine perish, then some countries in central and Eastern Europe would certainly waver in their will and security. At that time, NATO’s cohesion and stability would deteriorate, and the next spear and shield outbreak would likely occur in Lithuania. In particular, it should be pointed out that the United States itself is also on a path of no return. If the United States gradually loses its ability to exercise hegemony in the world after 10 years, and NATO’s protection ability for the former Soviet Union countries in central and Eastern Europe becomes weaker, Lithuania will have the same risk as Ukraine.
At the same time, we should see that Lithuania has completely offended another rising superpower by interfering in China’s internal affairs on the Taiwan issue, which is going farther and farther on the road of death. The trade between China and Lithuania is now basically close to zero, and it will be very difficult to restore neutral trade in the future. Just now, the Lithuanian government once again broke through China’s bottom line, and its vice minister of agriculture gilzhuotis led a delegation to Taiwan for three days on June 22. If you remember, Gaddafi once caused trouble to China by borrowing the nuclear issue from the United Nations, and then provoked China on the Taiwan issue. Now the grass on his grave is more than one person tall. For a bullet country, with the increasingly fierce game among big powers in the future, if there is no support from big powers at the critical moment, the country may be destroyed at any time.
Lithuania is the country that has deeply offended Russia and China, the two great powers of the P5. With the decline of the power of the United States, once one day the energy of the United States cannot effectively cover central and Eastern Europe, it may be Lithuania’s turn to destroy the country again!
There is a saying that if Lithuania does die in the future, it will at least be pushed to the starting point of this round of death in 2022.