Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu
Lithuania claims that in order to implement EU sanctions against Russia, Russia has been prohibited from transporting steel, concrete, alcohol and other goods to Kaliningrad, the Russian “enclave” through Lithuania.
In the future, with the gradual implementation of the EU’s upgraded sanctions against Russia, Lithuania will also prohibit Russia from transporting coal and oil to Kaliningrad through Lithuania.
Russia believes that Lithuania’s move is a very dangerous “hostile action”.
Some people in Russia even suggested that if Lithuania refused to correct its mistakes, Russia could occupy the “suwauki corridor” on the border between Lithuania and Poland by military means and forcibly open up the road transport channel between Russia and Kaliningrad.
When the Russia Ukraine conflict is about to enter its fifth month, the biggest geopolitical event in Europe in the 21st century has shown a trend of further expansion:
——Will Russia attack Lithuania?
——Will NATO led by the United States end up directly because of the dispute between Lithuania and Russia?
——Is the Third World War getting closer to us?
To answer these questions, we need to first smooth out the complicated relations between Russia and Lithuania.
Historically, Lithuania was one of the largest countries in Europe. Before the rise of the Russian Empire, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania once occupied a large area of today’s Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.
With the rise of the Russian Empire, Ukraine and Poland, two countries in the west of Russia, have been abused by Russia for hundreds of years, thus forming a very complex historical contradiction and emotional entanglement between the two countries and Russia.
Throughout the 20th century, the relationship between Lithuania and Russia became more complicated through major historical events such as World War II, the cold war and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In August of 1939, Nazi Germany, which hoped to stabilize the eastern front, signed the Soviet German non aggression treaty with the Soviet Union, which hoped to prevent Britain, France and other countries from diverting the scourge of Nazism to the East. Stalin also knew that this treaty could not guarantee the security of the Soviet Union for a long time, because once Nazi Germany freed up its hand on the western front, the Soviet Union and Germany would have a war sooner or later. Therefore, Stalin took advantage of the respite period brought about by the treaty to establish a buffer zone in the western part of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union not only occupied a large part of Finland, but also merged Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania into the Soviet Union in july1940. However, the Soviet Union’s move has not been recognized by western countries. Within the three Baltic States, there has always been a nationalist tendency to seek national independence and break away from the control of the Soviet Union. On december25,1991, the Soviet Union disintegrated, but before that, the three Baltic countries had taken the lead and declared their independence from the Soviet Union on September 6. After independence, Lithuania plunged into the arms of the West. In 2004, it joined NATO first and then the European Union, and completely parted ways with Russia.
Kaliningrad, the key to this dispute between Russia and Lithuania, was originally the prosperous place of Prussia, called konisburg. It is also the hometown of Kant, the great philosopher in German history. In the Second World War, the Soviet Union occupied the region and named it Kaliningrad with Soviet characteristics.
In the Soviet era, Kaliningrad, Lithuania and Belarus were all Soviet territories, so there was no problem. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kaliningrad suddenly became an “enclave” of Russia. Russia needs to pass through Belarus and Lithuania to maintain land contact with Kaliningrad. Belarus is happy to say that it has always been Pro Moscow, but Lithuania, which early embraced the west, is very hostile to Russia.
It can be seen from the map that although Kaliningrad has a small area, it has important strategic value. Russia has deployed advanced Iskander missiles here, which can directly threaten NATO countries.
These historical grievances constitute the background of the current debate between Russia and Lithuania on the traffic and transportation issues on Kaliningrad road.
For Lithuania, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it embraced the United States and other western countries wholeheartedly, and was extremely hostile to the Soviet Union and later Russia. After the end of the cold war, many Eastern European countries denied the history of their own socialism and hated the Soviet Union, which once controlled them. This anti Communist sentiment in Eastern European countries even spread to China.
After the end of the cold war, Russia was once in turmoil. The national economy was on the verge of collapse. There were numerous social problems. Terrorist attacks triggered by the Chechen War continued. Russia was too busy. Then President Yeltsin adopted a pro western policy and was at peace with Lithuania and other Eastern European countries.
However, over the past two decades, Russia has embarked on the road of recovery under the leadership of Putin, and its relations with western countries led by the United States have become worse and worse. Lithuania and Ukraine, the former Soviet republics, gradually evolved into the front line of anti Russian and anti Russian with the support and encouragement of the United States. It is inevitable that Russia has bad relations with these countries.
Unlike Ukraine, Lithuania, as a member of NATO, can enjoy the protection umbrella of NATO collective defense. It is on this point that Lithuania has been unscrupulous in anti Russia.
At present, the dispute over Kaliningrad has evolved into a big competition of willpower between Russia and Lithuania, as well as the United States and the European Union behind Lithuania.
If not handled properly, it may become the second tipping point of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, and may even drag the United States and the European Union into a direct military conflict with Russia.
Why did Lithuania dare to do so?
From the perspective of Lithuania, it has long been unhappy with Russia. The outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reinforced Lithuania’s perception that Russia is an “evil neighbor”. Lithuania has been very active in the extreme sanctions launched by the United States and the European Union against Russia.
Lithuania “blockaded” Kaliningrad, ostensibly only in the implementation of EU sanctions against Russia, but in fact, this is Lithuania disgusting and tossing Russia under the banner of the EU. Lithuania, relying on its membership in NATO, concluded that Russia did not dare to attack itself, so it also dared to take the lead.
Lithuania dares to challenge Russia alone, and the United States is also an important factor.
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for five months. Ukraine is becoming more and more difficult on the battlefield. Its destiny as a chess piece is moving towards a phased tragic end. However, the United States will never let Russia win easily. At a time when Ukraine is running out of money, the United States may already be looking for the next Russian battlefield to be consumed.
At this time, Lithuania, which has complex historical grievances with Russia and a large number of politicians with one mind, is expected to become another perfect chess piece against Russia for the United States.
From the perspective of the United States, the clear card of “using Ukraine to control Russia” has been played very well and is easy to use. It can completely duplicate the card of “using Ukraine to control Russia” and continue to bleed Russia.
By encouraging Lithuania to confront Russia, the United States can kill two birds with one stone: on the one hand, the United States can open up a second front outside Ukraine that consumes Russia; On the other hand, the United States can further pull the EU into the water and jointly contain Russia by provoking Lithuania, as a member of the EU, to fight with Russia.
Through this event, we can find again:
First, the United States has indeed “blackened”. It simply does not want to stop the current conflict. In order to consume Russia and pull the EU into the water, it does not care about turning Lithuania into a consumable after sacrificing Ukraine;
Second, the EU is really a “big Japan”, which seriously lacks strategic autonomy. If the front of Lithuania is opened, the EU will be further dragged into a war of attrition with Russia by the United States;
Third, Lithuania is really a “fool”. It underestimates the fighting will and determination of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Maybe Lithuania will become the second anti Russian pawn of the United States after Ukraine.
As we all know, Putin’s personality is very tough, and he always “has resentment and revenge”. No matter how weak the West thinks Russia is today, and how frustrated the Russian army is on the battlefield in Ukraine, Putin will never tolerate a small country like Lithuania riding on Russia to shit.
Before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, I predicted that Putin would never go empty, so I concluded that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would break out.
This time, I also concluded that Putin would never give up his provocation against Lithuania.
For Putin, the US led NATO has repeatedly expanded eastward after the cold war, and Russia can no longer give in. Previously, on the Ukrainian issue, he had chosen to lift the table and settle accounts with the United States. This time, on the Lithuanian issue, he is also likely to launch another Jedi counterattack.
However, Putin is not a reckless man. He also knows Lithuania’s status as a member of NATO. He will try his best to counter Lithuania without starting a direct military conflict with NATO.
Lithuania and the United States have no fear because of NATO’s collective defense clause. According to this clause, if Russia attacks any NATO member state, it is equivalent to attacking all NATO countries, and all NATO countries will go out to fight in groups.
However, this did not scare Putin at all.
From the perspective of Russia, before Lithuania “blocked” Kaliningrad, Russia took any action against Lithuania for the purpose of self-defense. At the same time, Putin will not be foolish enough to directly launch a comprehensive invasion against Lithuania. Russia’s most likely choice is to use political, diplomatic and economic means to punish Lithuania. If it fails, the Russian army may take action to forcibly open the “suwauki corridor”.
At this time, does the United States decide that Russia’s move is an aggression against Lithuania? Should NATO start the collective defense clause?
In fact, Putin is also accurate. After Russia has continuously demonstrated its strong nuclear deterrent and assumed the posture of fighting with NATO, the United States does not want to have a direct military conflict with Russia.
The United States provoked Lithuania to “blockade” Kaliningrad, which is equivalent to “taking” the Russian army. If Russia is afraid of NATO’s collective defense provisions and does not dare to take substantive action against Lithuania, but chooses to swallow the bitter fruit, Russia will not only face the strategic dilemma of isolating Kaliningrad, but also suffer a major humiliation in diplomacy.
However, Russia can also choose to “take” the US Army in turn. If Russia chooses to use the means of infinitely approaching war to counter Lithuania, including forcibly opening up the land channel with Kaliningrad, the United States will face a dilemma. If the United States does not dare to risk a direct military conflict with Russia, Russia will win this game and further shake the credibility of the security commitments made by the United States to its allies. If the United States supports Lithuania to have a military conflict with Russia, the United States will face a huge risk of losing control of the situation and even breaking out a nuclear war with Russia.
For the past six months, I have been studying the history of the first World War. World War I left a great lesson for future generations: when Archduke Ferdinand, crown prince of the Austro Hungarian Empire, was assassinated in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, almost no one expected that this event would trigger a catastrophe in human history in just over a month. Some people say that European countries went to World War I in a sleepwalk.
Will the same thing happen again today?
So far, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine seems to be only a local war, and the United States seems very confident in controlling the scope and scale of this proxy war against Russia. However, if the United States opens up a front that consumes Russia through Lithuania again, in view of Lithuania’s dual status as a member of the EU and NATO, the risk that the United States and the EU will be directly involved in the conflict with Russia will rise sharply.
For Russia, after the cold war, it was bullied by NATO countries led by the United States. This time, it raised the table on the Ukrainian issue and made a Jedi counterattack. It is ready to fight a war, even a nuclear war.
But are the United States and the European Union really ready to go to war directly with Russia? Have they really figured out how to avoid a possible nuclear war with Russia?
Will future historians write: “in 2022, with the connivance and encouragement of ignorant politicians, the Russian Ukrainian war, which was originally only a local conflict, continued to expand, triggering the conflict between Russia and Lithuania, and then a broader conflict between Russia and NATO, leading to the outbreak of the Third World War.”
The world is full of danger, so we must guard against it.