Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
“People often ask me why my posts on telegram are so wordy.
I answered, I hate them. They want us to perish in Russia.
As long as I am alive, I will do my best to make them disappear. “
——This is Medvedev’s remarks on June 7.
——Medvedev has changed:
Before the war between Russia and Ukraine, Medvedev was a moderate Pro western;
After the war broke out, he became an anti Western hardliner.
This is Medvedev’s sword!
01 Russian Political Ecology
There are many “ruthless characters” in Russian politics. Most of them are small party leaders or Duma legislators. They speak hard and swallow the whole global village with anger.
The most typical is Zhirinovsky, the founder and chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of the Russian Federation, who can be called the “biggest mouthed politician” in the global village political arena. If the old iron’s tough words are published, they will overshadow all other big mouth politicians.
Zhirinovsky’s old tie died on April 6, 2022, and melon eaters had less fun. However, there are still many tough roles in Russian politics.
Case 1: Poland.
Poland is anti Russian. Russian congressman Oleg Morozov said harshly: Poland’s words and deeds are encouraging Russia to put it at the top of the list of “de nazization” after Ukraine—— It means that after cleaning up Ukraine, it’s Poland’s turn.
Case 2: Lithuania.
Lithuania is anti Russian. Russian congressman Fedorov put forward a draft in the State Duma, proposing to abolish the bill of the State Council of the Soviet Union on “recognizing the independence of the Republic of Lithuania”—— It means that Russia is going to “recover” Lithuania.
Case 3: Kazakhstan.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan played a balance among Russia, the United States, China, India and other big powers, which made some tough talkers in Russian politics very unhappy. On December 10, 2020, Russian congressman Nikonov publicly declared that the territory of Kazakhstan was a gift from the Soviet Union. If it were not for the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan would not exist at all. Fedorov, another member of Parliament who supported Nikonov, said more excessively that “part of Kazakhstan’s territory is rented, and these territories should be returned after leaving the Soviet Union.”
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, Kazakhstan did not support Russia’s territorial claims to Ukraine. Russia’s famous mouthpiece Georg saryan openly declared that Kazakhstan is ungrateful and will face the same fate as Ukraine.
Medvedev was originally an alien in the Russian political arena with such big mouth tough guys everywhere, because he once played a moderate close to the West.
02 once tender
Medvedev and Putin have a special relationship:
They are both alumni of the law department of Leningrad University and fellow townsmen;
Putin is 13 years older than Medvedev, and is Medvedev’s political leader.
Back 20 years ago, on december31,1999, Yeltsin announced his resignation, which shocked the world.
At the age of 47, Putin began to take charge of Russia and announced to the world “give me 20 years and return your powerful Russia”. At that time, Medvedev, who was only 34 years old, was the deputy director of the presidential office.
Since Putin took control of Russia, Medvedev has been a member of Putin’s core circle.
From 2008 to 2012, due to the constraints of the Russian constitution, Putin served as prime minister and Medvedev as president. Later, Putin came to the front stage again as president and Medvedev as prime minister. Therefore, there is a saying in the Russian political arena that there is a “Pu Mei Er Ren Zhuan”. This pair of political combinations has maintained the stability of the Russian political arena.
However, the division of labor between Medvedev and Putin in Russian politics is different.
Putin is a traditional political strongman in Russia, and Medvedev prefers liberals.
What do you mean?
From tsarist Russia to the Soviet Union, they are all traditional political powers, and there is no living space for liberals; But both of them finally fell on the wheel of history. Gorbachev was the only liberal in the Soviet era.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has two threads, tradition and freedom.
In the Yeltsin Era, he tried to advocate liberalization and reconcile with Europe and the United States, but in the end he failed. Yeltsin had to bring up Putin, a traditional political strongman.
Although Putin is very tough, he also understands that traditional hard line is not enough, and liberals need to connect with Europe and the United States. Medvedev is right beside Putin, playing a liberal role.
Only by understanding these can we recall some phenomena of Medvedev when he was president. At that time, US President Barack Obama was very unhappy with the hardline Putin; However, he highly praised Medvedev as a kind and generous Russian leader with a mind and a future.
Obama spoke highly of Medvedev because during his presidency, Medvedev’s policies towards Europe and the United States were very gentle, gentle and even docile.
Medvedev is not exactly Putin’s younger brother. Sometimes he will play against Putin for the sake of the West.
03 strategy and effect
Back on march17,2011, the UN Security Council held closed door consultations again on the situation in Libya and voted on the draft resolution jointly submitted by France, Lebanon, Britain and the United States.
Ten of the 15 members of the Security Council (five permanent members and 10 non permanent members) voted in favour, while two permanent members of China and Russia, as well as three non permanent members of India, Germany and Brazil abstained. The United Nations Security Council resolution 1973 was adopted to establish a “no fly zone” in Libya.
The resolution directly led to the downfall of the Gaddafi government.
For China, India and Brazil, there is no direct interest in Libya.
However, Libya and Russia have always been friendly and are Russia’s strategic fulcrum in North Africa.
Medvedev’s abstention is equivalent to the death of Russia’s traditional allies and strategic fulcrum in North Africa.
Putin said, “if I read it, it is obvious that it authorizes any measures to be taken against a sovereign state. It reminds me of the Crusades in the middle ages.”.
Why did Putin not see the document before the vote? Before the vote, Medvedev fully communicated with Obama, but not with Putin. In fact, Medvedev meant to break the wrist with Putin at that time. This situation is similar to that of liyuanhong, fengguozhang and xushichang who were unwilling to be manipulated by Duan Qirui in the Beiyang era.
Medvedev held a press conference to explain the reasons for his abstention. He also warned Putin that relying on language would not help end the tension, and he could not accept remarks such as the crusade.
At that time, Western media even described that the voting was carried out under “Obama’s instructions”.
In fact, Medvedev’s policy is similar to Yeltsin’s, and both are moderate compromisers. This compromise has resulted in the compression of strategic space.
On december22,2011, Medvedev delivered his state of the Union address at the parliament of the Russian Federation for the last time. He said that despite the war in Libya, he did not think the relationship between Russia and NATO was particularly bad, and declared that “Ukraine has the full right to seek integration with Europe”.
However, Medvedev’s concession on the Libyan issue did not gain goodwill from the West. The West soon launched a new offensive in Syria, trying to overthrow the pro Russian Assad government, thereby pulling out Russia’s strategic fulcrum in the Middle East.
Medvedev was indeed cheated. So Medvedev failed to be re elected in the 2012 general election. After Putin came to power, he immediately sent troops to Syria, preserving Russia’s traditional sphere of influence in the Middle East.
Shortly thereafter, in 2014, Obama and Biden launched a color revolution in Ukraine to overthrow the pro Russian regime. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and Medvedev’s friendly strategy with the West failed completely.
At the beginning of 2020, Medvedev left the position of prime minister and assumed the post of vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation (the chairman is Putin). At that time, the public opinion interpreted that this move meant the end of the “two persons’ revolution between Putin and Medvedev” and Medvedev lost power.
After leaving the position of prime minister, Medvedev kept a low profile for a while. However, after the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war, Medvedev changed his previous Pro western style and became a hardliner in Russia.
04 hard up
Let’s feel Medvedev’s remarks after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine:
On February 24, Medvedev defended the Ukrainian War: “if you think that the masked armed robbers in Kiev are the government, then it is difficult for us to cooperate with such a government.”
On March 25, Medvedev told the United States that “the unipolar world has come to an end, and Americans are no longer the masters of the earth”.
On April 28, Medvedev met Germany, “think about how World War II ended.”
On May 14, Medvedev responded to the G7 sanctions against Russia, “to put it mildly: our country doesn’t care if the G7 doesn’t recognize the new border. The real will of the people there is very important.”
On May 31, Medvedev wrote on social media: “these sanctions are specifically aimed at the Russian people. No matter how American and European policymakers mutter, ‘we just punish your leaders, we love you, ordinary citizens’ – this is pure nonsense.”
On June 2, Medvedev said in response to the U.S. assistance to Ukraine, “if the United States provides Ukraine with weapons to attack Russia, we have no choice. In addition to attacking Kiev, we will also attack the decision-making center of the United States.”
On June 3, Medvedev said in an interview with Al Jazeera television that it was wrong to think that “nuclear war is impossible”, but nuclear war means the end of mankind, and mankind should make every effort to avoid nuclear war.
And so on, there are many more. The cruelest and toughest paragraph is the beginning of the article, “I hate them. They want us to perish in Russia. As long as I am alive, I will do my best to make them disappear.”
From these remarks, it can be seen that even in the Russian political arena where hardliners are everywhere, Medvedev has become one of the hardliners.
So the question is, why did Medvedev change from a pro Western moderate to a hardliner? There are four levels of answers.
05 fourth floor answer
Answer one, forced by the West.
As mentioned above, Medvedev implemented a pro western policy when he was in power, but he did not exchange his sincerity for sincerity. Instead, the West pressed step by step in Libya and Syria.
The second answer is the feelings of family and country.
Whether Putin is tough or Medvedev is moderate, they are all Russian leaders and will first consider issues from the perspective of Russia’s interests.
Medvedev was pro western when he was in power. He hoped to have good relations with the West so as to strive for better development opportunities for Russia; But this does not mean that we should bow down to the West.
If the West insists on making Russia bow, it can only fight.
Answer 3: survival needs.
At present, Russia’s political ecology has no room for moderates.
As a former moderate spokesman, Medvedev can easily become a target of hardliners. If he wants to survive in Russian politics, he must degenerate into the toughest hardliners, more ruthless than all hardliners.
If he continues to be moderate, all he has to wait for is the end of his political life. So at this time, in order to save himself, he must show his strongest attitude.
The fourth answer is to prepare for the succession of Putin.
Putin is old, and the question of his successor is imminent. The Russian people must be very clear about the historical lesson of national unrest caused by Peter the great and Stalin’s failure to succeed him.
So who can be Putin’s successor?
Lavrov is a choice. His advantage is that he is popular and his style of acting is rigid, which is more consistent with the Russian style. But he is obviously impossible because he is older than Putin.
Sauigu, a soldier, is another option. After all, in extraordinary times, soldiers can understand when they come to power. But Shoigu also has two shortcomings: first, he is only 3 years younger than Putin; Second, he is a Tuwa (formerly Tangnuwu LIANGHAI) and an ethnic minority (with an oriental face), so it is difficult to take over.
Another popular person is Kadyrov. Although he is young enough and tough enough, he has three weaknesses: first, ethnic minorities; Second, Muslims; Third, lack of political literacy, so the probability of succeeding Putin is very low.
Among Putin’s potential successors, Medvedev is more suitable. Medvedev is a suitable candidate regardless of his age or political foundation.
In 2020, Russia amended the constitution to clear the previous presidential term. Public opinion believes that this is to pave the way for Putin to continue to participate in the general election in 2024. In fact, Medvedev is also the beneficiary. His previous presidential term was also cleared with the new constitution, clearing the way for Putin to succeed him.
Of course, in Russia’s current political environment, if Medvedev is still moderate, the probability of succession is very low. But after he became a hardliner, there were no obstacles.
In short, Medvedev’s transformation will kill many birds with one arrow.
