Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
Several sets of “teams” in the western world have held intensive meetings in these days, including the EU summit, the G7 summit, the NATO summit, and various small circles. The United States, Japan and Australia are members of the “four sided dialogue mechanism”, the United States, Britain, Australia and New Zealand are members of the “five eye alliance”, and the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are components of the “Indian Pacific economic framework”.
These circles are simply dazzling, but people who can see clearly at a glance know that the main conspirators behind them are the United States, and the goal of building circles like a lantern is only one, that is, to maintain the unilateralist international order dominated by American hegemony. To put it bluntly, big brother can only recognize the United States. If a country challenges this hegemony, these large and small circles gathered by the United States will collectively “besiege” to maintain the authority of the “big brother”.
China and Russia, including Iran, are undoubtedly their thorns and thorns. They are challengers to the old international order and the targets they want to contain and suppress.
The NATO summit just held regards “confronting the rise of China” as a new strategy for the next decade, because the strategy is adjusted once a decade, which also means that the daily work of NATO will be carried out around this goal in the future.
After the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war, NATO not only found the value of its continued existence (against Russia), but also extended its life for a decade (against the rise of China).
The latest move to serve this strategy is that NATO not only agreed to Finland and Sweden, but also invited non member countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand to participate for the first time. The motivation of NATO’s eastward expansion and Asia Pacific integration is very obvious.
So how does China face the containment of Western circles?
The West seems to have set up a “bucket array” for China, but not every board in this bucket is generally long and unbreakable.
The focus of these circles mentioned above and the degree of “loyalty” to the United States are different, so there are three, six, nine, and so on. The core circle is the Anglo Saxon alliance of the United States, Britain and Australia, followed by the G7, the European Union and NATO, followed by the “four sided dialogue mechanism” and “five eye alliance” of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, and finally the Indo Pacific framework.
These circles cover political, economic, military and other types. On the surface, they all seem to serve the United States, but in fact, there are many people who are at the helm of the times, and the hole of “breaking the circle” is here.
Because the enemy’s fortress is not monolithic, China can completely sing a counter plan. Moreover, Oriental wisdom is unfathomable. If we follow the strategy left by our ancestors, the east wind will overwhelm the west wind.
First of all, catch the king before catching the thief. How to get along with the United States is undoubtedly the key to breaking the circle.
The United States regards China as its No. 1 strategic competitor, and its goal is to curb China’s rise and maintain its No. 1 hegemony in the world. Therefore, the United States is always hostile to China, which is the purpose of building circles around the world.
However, if the United States wants to kill a thousand enemies, it will certainly lose 800 of its own.
Because China US trade has long been a relationship between you and me. If the United States wants to decouple from China, it must promote the de Sinicization of its domestic goods. And this is a long and difficult process. Now, due to high domestic inflation, the U.S. government is planning to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, but this has caused huge differences within the White House.
Politicians believe that this is a compromise to China and a big gift to China, which will destroy the previous efforts of the trade war; Economists believe that high tariffs are one of the sources of high inflation, and only tariff reduction can alleviate the situation of high inflation.
This huge difference actually reflects the contradiction of the United States in dealing with China, the number one strategic competitor. If China is recklessly sanctioned and blocked, the United States itself will be greatly backfired.
At present, the fundamental reason for the high inflation in the United States is that the Federal Reserve misprints money for the United States to rush to buy goods everywhere. It can be said that it is “white whoring”. The huge amount of dollar liquidity has impacted on global energy, resources and agricultural products. The superposition of the Russian Ukrainian war has caused the imbalance between supply and demand, global inflation, and high tariffs have also increased the price of goods imported from China, which is finally reflected in the prices faced by American consumers.
The United States wants to openly “whore for nothing” and quietly suppress inflation. There are only two options, either to find a substitute country for the production and marketing of Chinese goods, or to submit to China and cancel the tariffs previously imposed. Because the former is far from enough to quench thirst, neither Vietnam nor India has the ability to quickly and completely replace made in China. Obviously, the latter is the best choice for both emergency and poverty.
However, the U.S. government is obviously unwilling to be so soft. As politicians worry, the abolition of tariffs means that the U.S. trade war between China and the United States will end in failure, and its dependence on Chinese goods will continue to deepen, which is obviously not conducive to the United States to suppress China as a strategic competitor in an all-round way.
For China, the contradictory mentality of the United States can be used to deal with the unpredictable diplomatic tricks of the Biden administration.
The purpose of the United States’ adherence to change is to make China disorderly. The price of China’s self chaos is the obstruction of economic development, so the global capital and commodities will continue to flow to the United States, a safe haven. This not only solves the difficulties of high inflation, but also solves the worries of economic crisis.
In the Asia Pacific, whether the United States plays Taiwan, Japan, South Korea or India, it is to harass and irritate China and make us disorderly. If there is military friction or even conflict in the Asia Pacific region, the United States can reap the benefits.
The United States wants us to mess up, but we have to be as stable as a rock.
So, how to do this?
I think we must use both kindness and coercion. Adopt different strategies for different countries and regions.
Secondly, according to the closeness of different countries to the United States, we should adopt the strategy of breaking one by one.
The countries in the first circle of the United States are Britain, Australia and Japan. These three people are kneeling and licking the American masters, basically because the United States is playing wherever it refers, ignoring its own economic interests.
For such American lackeys, we should give priority to military deterrence to shock their courage, and then economic sanctions to make them feel the pain of cutting flesh.
Now China has three aircraft carriers, second only to the United States, and has the capability of ocean deterrence. These three countries dared to be demons, so they drove the aircraft carrier formation around them.
Economically, tit for tat.
Australia’s minerals and fruits have been under embargo for more than a day or two, and good substitutes have been found in Africa, the Americas and ASEAN. And it may not find a buyer as big as China.
As for the UK, China’s counterattack against the UK is progressing steadily, from canceling the legitimacy of BNO passports to banning the BBC from landing. China is one of the largest investors in the UK. The deterioration of Sino British relations has undoubtedly shaken the development of Chinese enterprises in the UK.
Japan is the best dancer now. Fumio Kishida is a lobbyist for the United States everywhere, and he is also an active advocate of NATO’s “pacification”. But the Japanese government should also know that if there is a military conflict in the Asia Pacific, who will be the biggest battlefield? When the United States leaves, every inch of Japan will be within the range of Chinese weapons.
Japan believes that made in China is the biggest threat to its industrial chain, but without China’s huge market, Japanese goods will lose their biggest way out. Japan, South Korea and Australia huddle inside RCEP, isn’t it for the huge market of China and ASEAN?
If you want to fight a trade war with China, first consider how much weight your tiny place has!
The countries in the second circle of the United States are the European Union, South Korea and India. Although these three have the goal of curbing China, they still pursue a diplomatic strategy of self-interest compared with the shameless kneeling and licking of Britain, Japan and Australia.
Especially in India, he made use of the Russian Ukrainian war and the United States’ intention to win over, which was like a duck to water, and ripped off his experience.
On the one hand, India imports a large amount of discounted oil from Russia, on the other hand, despite the warning of the United States and Russia, India also uses RMB to settle accounts to please China, which really plays the practical speculative diplomacy to the extreme.
Although there are territorial disputes between China and India, for India, although it is not a friend, it is not a sworn enemy. We can just take advantage of India’s speculative mentality to ease the relationship with India with economic interests and avoid its side falling in favor of the United States. And it is not a simple thing for the United States to completely win over India.
Although the EU is the region with the deepest penetration of values by the United States, and most European politicians also choose to follow the United States to sanction Russia and support Ukraine, Russia holds the energy lifeline of the EU, and the EU has to buy Russian oil and gas at a high price through various channels.
As for China, the largest trading partner, the EU has the same ambivalence as the United States, but its diplomatic strategy cannot be as capricious as the United States.
If China is condemned because of a Ukrainian war or the so-called “forced labor” problem, the EU will lose more than it gains.
More importantly, the European Union can no longer afford such a toss. Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, international oil and natural gas prices have soared, greatly pushing up the production and living costs of European countries, and many countries have experienced an inflation crisis.
In this case, if it continues to decouple from the Chinese market, the EU is likely to fall into a serious economic recession. You know, the EU does not have as deep a foundation as the United States. If it continues to struggle, it will seriously damage the vitality of the EU, and the realization of economic or political independence will become elusive.
Therefore, for China, the EU’s strategy is contradictory and cannot be unified. EU member states may adjust their strategies towards China according to their own interests.
Although South Korean President Yoon sik Yueh was invited to attend the NATO summit, his courtesy caused verbal and written criticism from South Korean netizens. Whether it was Biden’s no look handshake, the eye contact with Kishida Fumio, or the 25 minute meeting between the United States, Japan and South Korea, it showed that the pro american president of South Korea was snubbed.
This is like the embarrassment of South Korea’s diplomatic strategy. It can be seen from several details at the summit that the relationship between the United States, Japan and South Korea is not as close as it seems.
From the interaction between Biden and Yin Xiyue, it clearly reflects the basic nature of the relationship of “the United States dominating and South Korea following”, and the United States pays more attention to Japan, which will inevitably impact South Korea’s diplomatic strategy.
Compared with Japan’s positioning of aiming at NATO’s Asia Pacific “anchor” and the gunpowder of Kishida’s statement in NATO, Yin Xiyue’s statement was slightly mild. Yin Xiyue emphasized at the NATO summit that he hoped to cooperate closely with NATO allies in the fields of economic security and cyber security. Moreover, after Yin Xiyue took office, the expression of relations with China tended to be cautious. This shows that South Korea is a swing between China and the United States.
For South Korea, we can give priority to kindness and give priority to prestige.
The economy in the third circle of the United States is ASEAN. ASEAN and the United States have no natural close relationship, but are closely linked with China. The most important thing is that China and ASEAN are each other’s largest trading partners, and ASEAN is China’s strategic fulcrum in the Asia Pacific economy.
It can be said that as long as China catches the ASEAN, it can be in an invincible position in the global economy. The markets of China and ASEAN are highly complementary, and the world’s largest free trade area can be formed within RCEP. ASEAN will become an important focus of China’s economic double cycle.
In other words, once there are uncontrollable risk events in global geopolitics, and China and ASEAN depend on each other, they will be able to stand out from the crisis.
Although ASEAN to China and South America to the United States are fundamentally different, both ASEAN and South America have become the rear of the economic development of China and the United States. However, ASEAN and China will not have the “Exploitation” situation that the United States erodes the economy of South America, but will have a helping relationship with each other.
We can see that Biden was frequently beaten in the face at the South American summit, which shows that the South American countries have been complaining about the “colonization” of the United States, and the rear of the United States has been shaken.
The bilateral relations between China and ASEAN have experienced ups and downs, including the Asian financial crisis provoked by relevant western countries, the international financial crisis, and a series of provocations by the United States in the South China Sea. However, based on the concept of respect and win-win results first laid down at the Bandung meeting, the two sides finally overcame the provocation of relevant countries based on trust and win-win results, and banned verbal and empty talks with substantive cooperation, presenting a typical example of international cooperation.
Therefore, only cooperation between China and ASEAN can win more. ASEAN is China’s economic anchor in the Asia Pacific region.
Finally, join Russia and Iran to build an economic and trade alliance with the BRICs countries as the main body, and extend it to diplomatic, military and other fields.
Russia’s military action in Ukraine is actually a stress test of the global political and economic pattern. It not only reflects the hypocrisy and double standards of western countries and values, but also has a great impact on the global unilateral order.
At the same time, it can also be seen that the West draws a line with ideology and pursues the true face of the cold war, while the new economic forces in China, Russia, Iran, including Brazil, have always been unable to integrate into the western world and are regarded as opposing camps.
Therefore, only by uniting these rising stars who do not succumb to U.S. hegemony, forming Strategic Complementarities in the economy, and creating an independent cycle that does not depend on the western economy, can we seize the right to speak in the international order dominated by Western forces, and then break the old situation of U.S. hegemony.
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
No matter how many circles the United States has, it cannot change its historical trend of declining national power and declining hegemony. Even the military alliance represented by NATO seems to be expanding and powerful in the short term, but it can’t stop the decline of the United States.
The Russo Ukrainian war gave NATO reasons to continue to exist and expand. China’s “threat” made NATO readjust its strategic competitors, Sweden and Finland joined, and Japan advocated the so-called pacification of NATO. These are seemingly powerful historical countercurrent.
NATO’s eastward expansion and reaching out to the Asia Pacific are the embodiment of the hegemonic will of the United States and the West. Although these circles now seem crazy and powerful, dominated by the United States and surrounded by China, as long as we can maintain strategic concentration, respond to it with differentiated strategies and crack it, we will be able to stand out from the siege.
Because the rise of China is an irreversible objective process, and whoever blocks it will pay a painful price. The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation cannot be stopped by a few seemingly powerful stumbling blocks.