Original: housha source wechat official account: housha has been authorized to reprint
On the evening of June 21, the Nepalese cabinet held a meeting and reached an agreement not to promote the SPP (the “State Partnership Plan” led by the US National Guard) in Nepal. The US plan to establish a military cooperation mechanism in Nepal through the SPP was “aborted”.
It was not so much the cabinet of Nepal that vetoed the plan as the patriotic political forces in Nepal and the overwhelming opposition from all walks of life forced Prime Minister Deuba and some military leaders to abandon their cooperation with the United States.
This is a struggle between patriotic forces and traitorous forces in Nepal. Fortunately, Nepal has finally taken back the dangerous step of falling into the geopolitical abyss, and is back on its feet!
The originator of the SPP incident was the US intelligence agency and Prime Minister Deuba of Nepal.
After being opposed by President Bandari, two speakers of Congress, the general headquarters of the army, the Minister of the interior and other cabinet members, as well as various parties in the government and the opposition, Deuba and his foreign minister kadeka still insist on semi covert collusion with the United States. Deuba also plans to sign an agreement in the United States next month.
The United States and Deuba want to cut the mess quickly and cook the uncooked rice.
However, in early June, the SPP “draft agreement” was obtained by major Nepalese media. After the content was disclosed, it aroused the anger of all sectors of society.
According to the agreement, Nepalese officers will study in the United States, the army will regularly hold joint exercises with the United States, U.S. military personnel can enter Nepal at any time, and the weapons of the Nepalese Army will be standardized by the United States
Any Nepalese with a little common sense will not believe that this will bring any benefits to this small landlocked country. It will only lead Nepal to a dead end.
However, in order to avoid long dreams, the United States sent Deputy Secretary of state uzrah Zeya to visit Nepal in May.
On June 10, Charles Flynn, commander of the US Pacific army, arrived in Nepal for a four-day official visit, met with Deuba and Sharma, commander in chief of the Nepalese Army, and went to the mountains to further exchange with the Nepalese Army.
The United States has never paid so much attention to Nepal. It is the so-called “no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, no matter what, no matter what.
On the day Flynn left Nepal, on June 14, nine left-wing parties led by the Communist Party of Nepal issued a joint statement, openly opposing the spp. They directly pointed out that the spp is an integral part of the Indo Pacific strategy. The SPP will make the Nepalese Army a vassal of the US military step by step and undermine Nepal’s sovereign independence.
On June 17, the Nigerian parliament asked Deuba to be present to explain the matter, but Deuba chose to be absent.
After all parties strongly questioned Deuba, foreign minister kadeka argued until June 21 that “spp is not a military agreement” and said that it should be signed immediately and take effect immediately.
Isn’t spp a military agreement? The arrival of general Flynn has explained everything. Deuba and kadeka are completely in line with the characteristics of the “road leading Party”: open your eyes and talk nonsense.
How did the United States lead the Nepalese cabinet down this path?
On February 27, the Nepalese parliament approved the draft of the “Millennium Challenge plan” (MCC) agreement signed with American companies, and the assistance provided by the United States was about US $600million.
As MCC is covered by economic assistance and infrastructure investment, some Nepalese have accepted the agreement, but the most powerful promoter is Deuba.
MCC is just a step to remove the psychological defense line of the people in Nepal.
The United States first used MCC to trap Nepal, but Nepal still has to complete the SPP agreement to get the 600million US dollars. The real goal of the United States is the SPP agreement.
Under the cloak of “civilian military organizations”, the SPP can avoid parliamentary approval in many countries in the name of the National Guard, only with the consent of the government.
Deuba took the second step in cooperation with the United States. To put it bluntly, he wanted to use American power to realize his political self-interest – long-term governance.
As Nepal’s political structure is dominated by three parties in turn, Deuba has served as Prime Minister for five times (1995, 2001, 2004, 2017 and 2021), but none of them has completed their term of office. The two communist parties in Nepal have been in power for a longer time.
To talk about spp, let’s first introduce the political structure of Nepal.
Although Nepal is a small country, after the “democratization”, there are actually 181 political parties. Excluding some poorly organized political parties, there are 30 parties that have won seats in Parliament.
There are three major parties that can form a majority party and come to power:
1? Congress party, which has been close to India for a long time, and Deuba is the party chairman. As long as he takes office, he will certainly do something that is not conducive to the development of China Nepal relations. For example, in November 2017, he froze the plan to build a hydropower station on the Budhi Gandaki River (in cooperation with Gezhouba Group).
2? The Communist Party (United Marxist Leninist), whose chairman is oli, resigned in July 2021. He is regarded as a representative of the “pro China faction” and strongly opposes Indian intervention.
3? United Communist Party (Maoist Center), the party chairman is Prachanda. They also tend to be friendly to China and oppose Indian intervention.
No matter which two of the three parties are united, as long as there is a situation of two to one, the other will not be able to take power.
After the adoption of the new constitution in Nepal in 2015, the three parties took turns in power. Oli and other three people each served as Prime Minister for nine months, which is a unique phenomenon in the world. Although this has avoided bloody street conflicts, it is not conducive to the stability of Nepal’s development.
Therefore, in 2018, CPN (United Marxist Leninist) and CPN (Maoist) abandoned their past grievances and announced the merger into a political party alliance, with oli and Prachanda as party chairmen.
Austria was elected as prime minister on February 15, 2018, and the term of office was changed to once every five years. Normally, oli will end his term of office in 2023 and hold parliamentary elections.
However, since the end of 2020, there have been contradictions in the political alliance between the two communist parties. Some people opposed the dual chairman system and asked oli to resign as the party chairman.
In 2021, the coalition broke down, and the oli government was forced to “resign” (the cabinet fell). Prachanda could not become the prime minister, because oli’s faction opposed the formation of a cabinet by him.
This gave Deuba a chance. On July 18, 2021, the Supreme Court of Nepal ruled that Deuba’s Congress Party had the right to form a cabinet, and Deuba became the new prime minister.
However, Deuba has not undergone parliamentary elections, and formal parliamentary elections will be held in November this year. If the two Communists join hands again, the Congress party will never be able to become a majority party.
In this case, Deuba put personal interests above national interests and further colluded with the United States until the SPP incident broke out.
As a pro India political party, the Congress party is very entangled in India’s practice. India neither wants to see its influence weakened in Nepal, nor dare to prevent Deuba from introducing US troops into Nepal.
But for China, Deuba’s practice is quite dangerous. When the SPP content is continuously implemented. The US military will certainly establish a military base in Nepal in the name of the National Guard, eventually bringing Nepal into the military “alliance” and becoming a pawn against China’s Tibet region.
This danger is mainly Nepal’s own:
1? China can never sit idly by and watch the situation develop. Although we do not want to hurt Nepal, we will certainly take countermeasures. How can Nepal carry it?
2? Once the United States fully infiltrates Nepal, there will be civil strife or even a military coup at any time. Imagine the consequences of sending all senior Nepalese officers to the United States for brainwashing.
On the 23rd, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman wangwenbin said at a regular press conference: China appreciates the decision of the Nigerian government. China will, as always, support Nepal in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, support Nepal in adhering to its independent and non aligned foreign policy, and is willing to work with Nepal to jointly safeguard regional security, stability and common prosperity.
Appreciates the decision of the Nigerian government. From another perspective, China opposes the previous “draft agreement” between the Nepalese government and the United States.
The Nepalese saved themselves this time, but the problem is that Deuba will never give up in order to stay in power for a long time. He wants to visit the United States just to show that he has established a “special relationship” with the United States. He has rich “political capital” — the support of the United States and India.
The $600million sent by the United States is a huge sum in the short term. Nepal is very poor. Last year, China invested 32billion Nepalese rupees (about 268million US dollars) in Nepal. Maybe you think this figure is very low for a country, but it has accounted for 71% of the total foreign direct investment in Nepal.
But the money of the United States will never be given in vain. What will Nepal get in return? It must be sovereignty, blood and human life. Just look at the fate of Ukraine.
In the long run, Nepal should develop its economy step by step instead of relying on charity. Moreover, some Nepalese politicians may also have private interest exchanges with the United States.
The fact that the United States is eyeing Nepal just proves that it has reached the point where it is desperate for food. If the national strength does not decline to a certain extent, the United States simply does not need to know what the spp is doing in Nepal.
Although this matter has been thwarted, the United States will take advantage of the opportunity of Deuba’s administration to produce another demon E-Child.
The key is how to resolve the inner-party contradictions between oli and Prachanda?
On June 23 and 24, Liu Jianchao, director of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) and former Prime Minister Prachanda, and oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) and former Prime Minister of the former government, held video calls respectively to exchange views on enhancing inter party exchanges, strengthening the exchange of experience in running the party and the country, and promoting China Nepal cooperation in various fields.
After the SPP incident, China and Nepal had party to Party exchanges, which was meaningful. But what can America say? Can only continue to suffocate.
In short, Nepal’s patriotic forces should unite, otherwise, they will only give Deuba, a politician who is obsessed with profit, an opportunity to push Nepal into danger.
I also advise Deuba and his “Congress party” to face endless hardships and come back!