Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
Every once in a while over the years, Putin delivered a big speech.
This is a speech delivered at the 25th St Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 17.
The St. Petersburg forum is an economic forum held by Russia and is called the Russian version of Davos. Although the forum is nominally a window for Russia to show its economy to the outside world, it is more about international relations and geopolitical games.
In fact, the reason is understandable. The Russian economy is mainly concentrated in the traditional fields such as arms and energy. There is nothing to talk about.
In the frontier new economic field, Russians are not good at it. It is estimated that they have little confidence to say. Even if they say so, few people are willing to listen.
Therefore, it is more practical to talk about international struggle and geopolitical game, and they are also good at it.
Affected by the war in Ukraine, this forum was boycotted by the west, but political and business figures from many countries and regions still attended. Among them, important political figures include but are not limited to: presidents of Kazakhstan and Armenia; Donbas regional leader; Officials from Cuba, Venezuela and Myanmar; Taliban representatives, etc.
The total length of the plenary session was nearly 4 hours, and Putin’s speech was about 1 hour and 15 minutes.
The theme of this St Petersburg Forum: “new world – new opportunities”; There are four topics: global and Russian economy, digitalization, information security, and human resources development.
01 what is “new world – new opportunities”?
Putin stated that an international society based on the “unipolar world doctrine” is unstable. No matter how some people try to protect this order, the era of unipolar world order has come to an end.
This so-called unipolar world refers to the unipolar world that the United States is trying to build and dominate. At the beginning of the Ukrainian war, Russia claimed that the purpose of attacking Ukraine was to “end American hegemony”.
Logic: single
extremely
The end of the world will bring many new opportunities.
Putin said that the ruling elites of western countries still have an illusion that the dominant position of the West in global politics and economy is eternal, but “nothing is eternal”.
So what is the fantasy of the Western elite? Putin described that “they still seem to be thinking in accordance with the thinking of the last century. They are still influenced by their misunderstanding of countries other than the so-called ‘Golden billion’. They think that everything there is backward and regard it as their backyard. They still regard these places as colonies and the people there as second class.”
——In fact, in terms of “old-fashioned thinking”, Russia and the West are half as good as each other. Not long ago, Putin took Peter the great as an example to “recover and consolidate the territory”.
Since the Western elite is so vicious, why don’t other countries in the global village resist? Putin explained that because their vicious means are very sophisticated, “they suck goods from the poorest countries like vacuum cleaners, leaving only leftovers.”
For this reason, it is natural to demonstrate with examples. So Putin specially “named” when he is dissatisfied with someone, he can steal other people’s funds at any time “. The United States is still freezing large amounts of Russian funds.
Putin criticized the United States. “They seem to ignore the fact that in the past few decades, the earth has formed a new strong and increasingly confident center. Each country develops its own political system and public institutions according to its own economic growth model. Naturally, they have the right to protect themselves and ensure national sovereignty.”
Of course, there is still a paradox here. What about Ukraine’s sovereignty? He was too lazy to answer the question.
02 so called economy
As a tough guy commander, Putin certainly will not grow others’ ambition and destroy his authority.
Putin declared that the “economic Blitzkrieg” of the West against Russia was doomed to failure from the beginning. “In recent years, sanctions, as a weapon, have proved to be a double-edged sword and even more harmful to its advocates and designers.”
“We see that the social and economic problems in Europe are worsening. In the United States, the prices of food, electricity and fuel are also rising… The inflation rate in some countries in the euro area has reached 20%. The inflation rate in the United States is also unacceptable, the highest level in the past 40 years.”
According to Putin’s logic, an important reason why Russia dares to light its sword in Ukraine is that “Asia and China have clearly revealed the creation of a new world development center”.
Putin has two understandings:
First, this passage is not a simple formality, but an exposition of the logic of political economy.
Putin said earlier that “a new strong and increasingly confident center” focuses on highlighting China’s role. By the way, Putin’s words made Indian netizens with super combat power very unhappy.
Second, highlight China’s power and let the West focus more on China. In the past two years, Putin has said similar words several times.
However, no matter what level of understanding, China Russia relations have become a focus of Putin’s speech. He said, “our (China Russia) trade volume is 140billion (US dollars) and will continue to increase. This year, it may be more and set a record. It is not because the current political situation forces us to do so. It is because the objective situation in the world is so developed. We are interested in cooperating with China and benefit from it. Especially in the political aspect, we have a stable trust relationship.”
——No matter how the world develops, it is a good thing that China and Russia, as neighbors who cannot move away, can mutually benefit and cooperate.
In fact, what the West really wants is Sino Russian confrontation. The border between China and Russia is too long. Confrontation will benefit the West. When the Sino Soviet relationship broke down, the West was well served.
Fortunately, at this stage, under the aggressive situation of the United States, China and Russia are more pragmatic.
03 Ukraine
Another topic that cannot be avoided is Ukraine.
The reason why the St. Petersburg forum is less lively than in previous years lies in the Ukrainian war.
As one of the most important guests in this round, President Tokayev of Kazakhstan stated his position in the presence of Putin. Kazakhstan believes that the Republic of Lugansk and the Republic of Donetsk are only “quasi states”
”
They do not recognize their independence.
In fact, this is quite straightforward. We should know that Kazakhstan is one of the countries with good relations with Russia. Tokaev’s statement represents the attitude of the international mainstream society in a sense, that is, he does not recognize the independence of the two republics in Eastern Europe.
It is precisely because of the international mainstream attitude that Russia describes its attack on Ukraine as a “special military action” and claims that it does not intend to subvert the Ukrainian regime.
Putin declared publicly this time that he “does not oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU.” He believes that the EU is different from NATO. The EU is not a military organization or military political group. “Whether to join an economic consortium is the sovereign decision of any country, and whether to accept new countries as members is also decided by the economic consortium.”
“What we have always opposed is the military development of Ukrainian territory, because it threatens our security. But in terms of economic integration, it is their own choice.”
As I said in yesterday’s article, Putin’s words are a cover for makron and Schultz, with the intention of resuming Russia Ukraine negotiations and restoring relations between Russia and the EU.
——From the standpoint of Putin and Russia, Russia is moving from one victory to another.
But in the west, the perspective is different.
04 Western Perspective
Some reports of the world economic forum in St. Petersburg by Reuters were very interesting, describing it as a roast conference:
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri bemoaned the backward technology of Russia because he was kicked out of the swift system, and said frankly that “you will compete with companies that have surpassed you for generations”.
The chief executive officer of Sberbank, a Russian bank, said that the current situation was that it could not be bought, sold, paid or supplied.
The head of the European Enterprise Association said bluntly: those who do business with Russia will bear huge losses.
An executive of an industrial company in Russia said: this year, there is obviously no one. Everyone is greeting each other when they meet – “can you withstand the sanctions?” This is so sad.
——Completely described Russia as a loser, and the economic forum became a loser’s roast conference.
Describe this round of St. Petersburg Economic Forum in simple words:
1. The war of public opinion is silent and everywhere. The Russian perspective is totally different from the Western perspective.
2. The Russian economy is still confined to the traditional arms and energy fields, and there is no possibility of breakthrough.
3. Because the new economy cannot break through, Russia may try its best to occupy more energy markets, that is, to seize more territories with high resource value by means of war.
