This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
The situation is highly tense, and all parties are making preparations. According to a recent report by the associated press, there is a saying that describes the local situation like this: “almost every day there is no exchange of fire and shelling!”
There are signs that another war is about to break out in this place not too far away from Ukraine.
On the one hand, Turkey, which has recently made a high profile; On the other hand, the Kurdish armed forces, which Turkey regards as a thorn in the side and a thorn in the flesh.
A few updates.
1. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently issued a clear threat: one night, we will suddenly attack them, and we must do so.
2. During the previous telephone conversation with Putin, according to media reports, Erdogan and Putin discussed the actions of the Turkish army. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s recent sudden visit to Turkey is more or less related to this situation.
3. According to the information disclosed by the Turkish government, the Turkish army will complete the tasks that were not completed two years ago, cross the border into Syria, wipe out the Kurdish armed forces, and establish a 30 km wide “safety zone” along the Turkish Syrian border.
4. The Kurdish armed forces in Syria have been mobilized urgently. The Supreme Commander held an emergency meeting, claiming that they are taking the latest threat from Turkey very seriously and are preparing for possible attacks.
5. According to reports, the Syrian government troops in northern Syria, the Russian troops stationed in Syria, and the troops of neighboring Iran have all strengthened their combat readiness to deal with large-scale conflicts that may break out at any time.
It’s true that the trees are quiet but the wind is still blowing. The land of Ukraine in the north is still burning. The heart of the Middle East in the south is full of smoke.
Why should Turkey start at this time?
Based on the analysis of all parties, there are no more than three reasons, but they are also related to the situation in Ukraine.
First of all, Turkey has always regarded the Kurdish armed forces as the number one enemy. Now Russia is busy with the situation in Ukraine and has no time to provide strong support to Syria. Moreover, Russia, which is facing the strangulation of the west, certainly does not want to deteriorate its relations with Turkey. This is the perfect time for Turkey to launch an attack.
Secondly, as for the United States, Turkey believes that the United States now also has more demands on Turkey. Turkey also has key chips in the issue of Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Therefore, even if it attacks the Kurdish allies of the United States in those years, the United States will not have much response.
Thirdly, in addition to once and for all resolving the threat of Kurdish armed forces in Syria and expanding Turkey’s territory, Turkey’s inflation has soared recently, and people’s dissatisfaction has risen. Launching a foreign attack will certainly help to strengthen domestic cohesion and stabilize Erdogan’s position.
So, Russia is busy fighting Ukraine, the United States is busy dealing with China and Russia, and Turkey is going to do it.
Therefore, to some extent, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is definitely not limited to Russia and Ukraine. The influence is constantly spilling over, and a new reshuffle is emerging in the Middle East.
The Kurdish armed forces in Syria were the most reliable allies of the United States in the fight against the Islamic state, and made great contributions to the U.S. military. However, the United States said it would abandon it. The Kurdish armed forces had to change their position and were seeking reconciliation with the Syrian government army, hoping that the latter would help counter the Turkish army attack at that time.
Of course, as a check on the United States, the Kurdish armed forces also claimed that once Turkey launched an attack, the Kurdish armed forces would not be able to effectively control the prison. You know, there are also thousands of Islamic extremists who fought with the United States in the prison, many of whom are foreigners. Once they escape, it will be a bloodbath.
Turkey’s actions have also aroused the vigilance of Russia, Iran and Syria. Therefore, the Russian and Iraqi armies are also deploying. The Syrian government is even more angry. The Turkish army will cross the border if you say it crosses the border. It also needs to establish a 30 kilometer buffer zone. Where is my national sovereignty?
The most embarrassing thing should be the United States. To protect Kurdish allies, we must turn against Turkey; What is the difference between Biden and trump if we abandon the armed forces of cuddle? Don’t forget, when the Turkish army attacked two years ago, there was a beautiful scenery along the road, that is, the angry Kurdish people smashed the potatoes at the American soldiers who bowed their heads and left, scolding: get out, American liar
Finally, three regrets.
First, we have to admire Turkey’s ruthlessness.
With the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Turkey seems to be the first country to mediate, which is impressive. Sweden and Finland want to join NATO, while Turkey insists on not letting up, leaving the United States helpless. Turning around, the Turkish army moved out. Not long ago, it crossed the border into Iraq, and now it is ready to fight in Syria. The Middle Kingdom of Turkey is really amazing. Erdogan is a ruthless man who never stops doing things.
Second, we have to get used to the double standard of the United States and the West.
They are all fighting, but the West seems not very interested in sending troops to Turkey. Seeing that some people really couldn’t stand it, they criticized on western social media: you are completely double standard in the West. Russia sent troops to Ukraine, and you condemned it as “aggression”; When Turkey sends troops, you call it a “cross-border operation” against terrorism. Is it because Turkey is a NATO country? Of course, Turkey is still oppressed. When did you western countries think I was a real ally?
Third, we have to cry for the Kurds.
Among the five major ethnic groups in the Middle East, Arabs, Turks, Persians, Kurds and Jews, the only Kurdish has no country. This is a nation with a glorious history. Saladin is a Kurdish. But in modern times, Kurdish land was divided by various countries, and Turkey often fought. By working hard for the Americans and fighting side by side with the U.S. military, the Kurdish people count on the United States to provide protection. But who knows, the United States will throw away when it runs out. Alas, they think so well of Americans