The article is reproduced from Niu Danqin (ID: bullpiano) with authorization by Niu Danqin
Data map
(I)
What is the least needed in 2022?
Warfare!
This year is very unusual. We have witnessed too much history and do not want to witness war again.
But another war broke out suddenly, not too far from Ukraine. Neighboring powers, including Russia, Turkey and Iran, have also been involved.
Because the two sides of the conflict are Azerbaijan, which has a very close relationship with Turkey, and Armenia, which has a contractual relationship with Russia.
The conflict is very fierce. Look at the relevant videos. The gunfire is continuous, almost crimson the whole sky. In addition, the conflict is carried out along almost the entire border between the two countries, which is almost a full-scale war.
Comprehensive media coverage.
1. The consequences are quite disastrous. According to Azerbaijan, “50 Azerbaijani soldiers died because of large-scale provocation by Armenia”, while Armenia claimed that at least 49 soldiers died from Azerbaijani artillery fire. This is only a soldier, not including the poor on both sides.
2. Why are we fighting? Azerbaijan accused the Armenian army of provoking and firing at two villages near the border on September 12. Armenia complained that it was the Azerbaijani army who fought fiercely. The Azerbaijani army “tried to advance into Armenia under the cover of artillery and drones”, and the two sides exchanged fire in several areas along the border.
3. The Azerbaijani military issued a statement acknowledging that the Azerbaijani military launched air strikes, but said that the air strikes were “small-scale” and “aimed at ensuring the security of the Azerbaijani border”, while Armenia violated the relevant agreements and used heavy weapons.
4. Under the emergency intervention of Russia, the two sides once held a ceasefire. But the ceasefire lasted only a few hours and was soon interrupted by more large-scale artillery fire. This is also the fiercest conflict that broke out after the end of the Naqqa war between the two countries in 2020.
5. Armenian Prime Minister Pashniyan held an emergency call with Putin, requesting Russia to implement the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance signed in 1997, according to which the two countries will defend each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty when attacked by foreign countries. The Kremlin said Putin “will certainly do everything to help ease border tensions”.
6. Iran also immediately issued a statement urging the two neighbors to “exercise restraint” and “peacefully resolve” the conflict. Turkey, on the other hand, made it clear that it would stand firmly with Azerbaijan. This time, it was Armenia’s provocation. Turkey “will resolutely prevent any action that infringes on Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
This is a deja vu scene.
Two years ago, in 2020, a war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia, killing at least 6500 people. At that time, the Azerbaijani army completely occupied the advantage. Especially in the video, the Azerbaijani army used Turkish UAVs to hit Armenian tanks one by one, which was very impressive.
Azerbaijan regained the strategic position of Naka at one stroke. Finally, with the intervention of Russia, the two sides stopped fire. At present, the Russian army has deployed about 2000 peacekeeping troops on the ground.
To my surprise, the war started again after two years.
As for the reason, it must be Rashomon. But the fuse of the conflict between the two sides is undoubtedly the Nagorno Karabakh region.
Naka is not big, with an area of 4400 square kilometers and a population of about 170000.
The main local population is Armenians who believe in Christianity. But the division of the Soviet Union is very interesting. Naka is mainly Armenian, but belongs to Azerbaijan. In Azerbaijan, the majority believe in Islam.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, all the participating republics became independent. In order to fight for Naka, Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out a fierce war (the first Naka war after the disintegration of the Soviet Union), which resulted in 30000 deaths and 1 million forced to leave their homes.
The Armenian army took the Naka region at that time, although the international community still generally recognized that the region belongs to Azerbaijan. This foreshadowed the second war in 2020 when Azerbaijan regained Naqa.
This is really a sad ending.
During the Soviet period, all ethnic groups lived together and were generally peaceful. However, after the first war and conflict, according to a 2004 Armenian report, only 30 of Armenia’s 3.1 million population at that time were Azerbaijanis; According to the population statistics of Azerbaijan in 2009, there are only 183 Armenians out of the 9.7 million population of Azerbaijan outside the Naka region.
In the Naka region, four fifths were Armenian and one fifth were Azerbaijani in the Soviet period; However, according to the statistics of Naka authorities in 2015, none of the local people are Azerbaijanis.
(II)
From the current situation, Azerbaijan takes the initiative completely.
In addition to asking Putin for help, Armenian Prime Minister also called US Secretary of State Brinken to ask the US side to “fully respond” to what he called “Azerbaijan’s aggression against Armenian sovereign territory”.
For Armenia, Azerbaijan is totally a bully.
Of course, from the perspective of international politics, Azerbaijan and Armenia are small countries:
Azerbaijan has an area of 86000 square kilometers and a population of 9.7 million;
Armenia covers an area of 29000 square kilometers and has a population of 3.1 million.
That is to say, the land area of Azerbaijan is roughly equivalent to our Chongqing; Armenia is a little smaller than Hainan. As for the population and economic scale, it can’t be compared with our two regions.
However, Azerbaijan has oil, and Baku is the oil center of the Caucasus. Therefore, Azerbaijan’s national strength is now much stronger than Armenia’s.
Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey, which has provided a large number of advanced weapons for the little brother; However, although Armenia is small, it is also followed by Russia, and it is also a member of the Collective Security Organization.
When I was working in Jerusalem, I was surprised to find that the old city of Jerusalem was divided into four parts, one of which was an Armenian area. In the West, there are also many Armenians. Armenia and Turkey are feuds. Therefore, from the perspective of religious sentiment, Westerners generally stand on the side of Armenians.
This is also the reason why Armenia immediately asked Putin for help and called the US side.
Therefore, this fierce conflict involves not only territorial disputes, but also ethnic hatred and religious conflicts.
Why did war break out again?
“Challenging” is just an appearance. To tell the truth, we are all tired of listening to it. According to the analysis of the western media, the most fundamental reason is that the negotiations between the two countries have become stalemate. Azerbaijan has taken back the Naka, and now forces Armenia to recognize the reality, but Armenia refuses to recognize it.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has greatly constrained Russia’s energy. Reuters quoted relevant experts as saying, “This (Russian Ukrainian conflict) has created a window of opportunity for Azerbaijan to continue the unfinished work of the second war in 2020.”
At present, the Prime Minister of Armenia is still calling to call on the international community to intervene urgently to stop Azerbaijan’s “aggression” against Armenia. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, hated and blamed the West for double standards, because Naqa was originally Azerbaijani territory.
The international community has called for an immediate ceasefire and peace talks between the two countries. Interestingly, the United States also asked Russia to “use its influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan” to stop the two countries from fighting.
Quite simply, without the strong intervention of external forces, the war will continue, even if it turns into the third large-scale war between the two countries.
(III)
Finally, what do you think?
Very emotional, let’s just say three simple points.
First, another powder barrel is being lit.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia, Islam, Christianity, all kinds of contradictions are intertwined, and behind them are millennia of national hatred, religious conflicts, and territorial disputes. When is it really time to get revenge? It has been a disaster for thousands of years that ethnic and religious conflicts are not handled well.
Second, the most unlucky people are the common people.
The three countries of the Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, as well as the disputed Naka region, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and other places, are small in size, small in population and generally not rich. However, in the past 30 years, there has been constant wars. Why? This is also an important reason for Gorbachev’s death not long ago, various praises and tributes from the West, and mixed feelings in the former Soviet Union.
Third, the consequences of the Russian Ukrainian conflict are spilling over.
It must be noted that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still going on fiercely, and the battlefield situation has changed greatly recently; But what is worse is that the consequences of the conflict are spilling over. As far as the Caucasus is concerned, if Russia’s energy is not constrained, will this conflict break out now? If Russia’s strength is seriously weakened, does it still have enough prestige to restrain and mediate the conflict at home?
Are similar problems only in the Caucasus? Don’t forget that after the upheaval of the Soviet Union and East Asia, the once hidden contradictions suddenly burst out. How many wars broke out and how many people were killed.
We seem to be able to hear the giggle of geopolitical fission.
When I stayed in Afghanistan and the Middle East, one of the most profound feelings was that you did not understand the value of peace without visiting these places. More valuable than gold. The road to peace is vast, and both eyes are bleeding. Alas, what we are used to, indeed, is what many countries most expect!