On the conflict between Russia and Ukraine: an inevitable war to save the nation from subjugation and ensure its survival!

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Source: wechat ID of governor of Dashu Town: dashuzhenzhang

Even though we are tired, the Russian Ukrainian war still dominates the headlines of international news.

In those years, we media, who spoke of “quick victory” and “quick defeat”, simply watched this war become a protracted war.

The United States and Europe, which are deeply involved in inflation, have failed to shake the battlefield even though they manoeuvre, so that the economic data continue to deteriorate and the image of “paper tiger” has been punctured;

On the other hand, the Russian army, which has been shaped as a “torrent of steel”, is still stuck in the face of Ukraine, which is far inferior to itself.

The United States and European countries can transfer contradictions by sucking blood, such as bankrupt Sri Lanka, Brazil and other countries, and even exert pressure and provocation on on China in an attempt to cheat some benefits. By contrast, Russia can only burn itself.

It has been 175 days since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began. Has Russia, struggling in the mud of war and winning or losing, ever regretted all this?

Today, let’s change our perspective, jump out of the opposition between geopolitics and ideology, and once again deeply understand the Russian Ukrainian conflict stirring the world from the economic perspective.

01

First, let’s get to the point.

Compared with such general terms as “geographical change” and “continuation of the cold war”, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may be more like a system dispute between a country producing resources (raw materials) and a country producing industrial products.

Let me give you another example before making sense.

Just two months ago, a total of eight warships of China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning went to sea.

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At that time, many media interpreted this incident as “linkage”, that is, Russia was making trouble in Ukraine and China was exerting pressure in East Asia.

However, in the author’s opinion, what this incident shows is not linkage, but gap.

Similarly, Russia and Ukraine are basically supported by Soviet style old equipment (several hypersonic missiles are still several dozen), and high-tech weapons are not good (this is contrary to the continuous appearance of high-tech weapons by the United States and the United States during the Gulf War).

On the Chinese side, one aircraft carrier is equipped with five drives, one protection and one supply. There is no third aircraft carrier fleet of this size on the earth.

Compared with China’s lineup, the lineup of Russia and Ukraine is precisely the gap between resource (raw material) producing countries and industrial products producing countries.

Only from this point can we deeply understand why Russia attacked Ukraine.

Because, in the future, the gap will be greater. If we don’t fight now, we won’t be able to fight in the future.

It is not the widening gap between Russia and Ukraine, but the gap between a large number of resource producing countries (such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Brazil, Argentina, etc.) represented by Russia and industrial finished products producing countries (most typically, China, the United States and Europe).

We can make a careful comparison, and you will be surprised to find that Russia is the most powerful country in this large number of resource selling countries.

Well, this actually foreshadows a very cruel Prospect:

When the gap is large to a certain extent, different resource producing countries will be unable to protect their own countries, unable to be independent of the world, and then divided by different industrial camps.

02

In the past two years, I knew that there was a very hot question, asking whether the comprehensive national strength of the Republic of Korea far exceeded that of Russia.

The background of the problem is that the total GDP of South Korea exceeds that of Russia.

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This problem is not only a joke back then, but also a joke now.

Even if Russia continues to pull across and hit Ukraine, no matter how bumpy, at least it still has a certain military production capacity and military offensive capacity, which is much higher than that of South Korea.

But after laughing?

In ten, twenty, fifty years?

What about South Korea? I don’t know. What about Russia? The total GDP of Russia is not as good as that of Guangdong Province.

Although I am also unhappy with the GDP theory, and feel that it is not enough to truly reflect the strength of a country, it can not be coincidence that the GDP of those who can compete with China and the United States is not low?

In other words, if you really have some strength, you can also push me higher.

This is just like in the game, the blood strip of the top mage can be longer than that of the low-level warrior. Although we all know that the blood strip is not the core index for investigating mages, others are strong, and longer is longer. This is an objective comparison.

Russia is eating the legacy of the Soviet Union. At the time of disintegration, the legacy was still new and of good quality. When we enter the 21st century after a decade, we will be somewhat backward.

In another ten or twenty years, by 2022, the best legacy will be rusted. What about the future?

If it can not be produced and supplemented, no matter how bad the legacy is, it will be rotten sooner or later.

At that time, where can Russia still have its old roots to eat? Now the gap between Russia and the industrial producing countries is shocking.

The Russian navy was sunk by a large warship, which was really a heavy loss. It felt that the main force was going to be destroyed, as if it was a sign of national subjugation.

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And China took out eight warships (and the vast majority of them are new and cutting-edge warships) at one go, and there was a third aircraft carrier on the berth to enter the countdown to launch.

In addition, the number of new warships launched by the Chinese navy in a year is equivalent to the total number of navies of some countries with medium international ranking.

The drones sold as toys on Taobao are used as weapons in some countries. A few days ago, Dajiang made a public opinion:

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At present, there is no evidence that the su-57, which Russia has boasted, is more advanced and more numerous than the j-20.

Our j-20 is visible to the naked eye, and it has long been a large part more than su-57. There were 18 sorties in more than 20 batches, and they can also deliver goods to Serbia.

During the confrontation between China and India last year, the troops from Hubei were transported to the Qinghai Tibet Plateau in only one day. This is the power of the industrial countries (though not yet complete and strong).

I would also like to add that there are more than 300 million people in the United States. The epidemic has infected more than 80 million people and killed more than 1 million people. Russia has a population of more than 100 million, infected more than 30 million people and died hundreds of thousands. Two sick men (hands off)!

The United States can still rely on the globalized Empire to forcibly suck blood and win respect. What does Russia rely on?

What if the gap between the United States and Russia is further widened? What can resource producing countries do against industrial producing countries? By the neck of the resource card?

Well, let’s think about it. How long has it been since we bought Russian clothes, shoes, mobile phones, TVs, computers, cars, medicine, etc? What else do they have on the market?

Now I can brush my sense of existence with my arms. What about the future? Who’s stuck in whose neck?

In particular, as a big country like China and the United States, you have to use resources to block our necks, forcing us into a hurry. The big deal is to do something by yourself.

There is no shale oil in the United States? Can’t find oil and combustible ice in the South China Sea?

The resources are there, and they won’t run away. If they are forced to do so, there may be another scientific and technological revolution.

Is it not that the gap is getting wider and wider when the opposition reaches the rear?

Therefore, for resource countries, their fate is to integrate into the industrial chain of industrial countries, become substitutable vassals, and eventually fall into a weakened downward spiral.

As for which camp is involved, whether the process of integration is happy or sad is another matter.

03

If you were a Russian, how would you view this prospect?

Is it really big Saudi Arabia? Is it really a gas station (grain station, fertilizer Station) with nuclear bombs?

Can you accept this fate?

If you don’t take advantage of the fact that you still have some strength, do you really want to wait until the strength gap further widens in the future?

Russia just wants to fight Ukraine? In fact, it aims to disrupt the industrial chain deployment of industrial countries by taking advantage of the opportunity to fight against Ukraine, to play an independent and advantageous position of resource countries, and even to create an alliance of resource countries.

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Brazil, Argentina and Australia, under the control (suppression) of the United States, are currently unable to explode.

If a guy like Ukraine joins NATO, it is bound to integrate into the European and American industrial chain.

Although the oil producing countries in the Middle East are dissatisfied with the United States, do they have the strength to resist? How can we hope that even the tiny state of Israel can not beat it?

This is somewhat similar to Southeast Asia’s attitude toward China, which is obviously disrespectful of integrity, but it has to be broken one by one by China.

What’s more, China has two major weapons to kill in the world: first, its superb diplomatic skills. While the five eye alliance is blowing its beard and glaring, it still has to work hard to do business and is not willing to turn the corner. Second, self-reliance——

Our “magic work of nature” has planted various islands in the South China Sea, and has played a real-time strategy game into a tower defense game. Now we are still studying the lunar vegetable planting, carbon dioxide synthesis of starch, fatty acids

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Now, what will Russia do in the future without China’s diplomatic skills and China’s own technological advantages?

Russia’s position is very awkward. On the shelf of its ancestral power lies a resource country.

You’re too old to be taken to play with others – others don’t trust you, and you’re not willing.

Even if I take you to play, you sell resources, and you support the second-class rich households, you can never relive the old dream of a first-class power.

That is why Russia has to put all its eggs in one basket at this juncture. Although the strength has been weakened and the fight has been stumbling, it will not be reduced to the time of being hit by the press.

At present, Russia’s own military is military, and its resources are also resources. There are at least two cards.

After the delay, the military will shrink even more, and there will be only one card left.

Now, if we fight well and the price of resources rises, it can also draw back blood, enhance its own strength (at the same time, increase the cost of the opponent), and narrow the strength gap.

If we have better luck, such as the collapse of several weak links in the European and American industrial chain, it can also pick up some foreign losses.

If the ancestral tombs smoke and loosen the control of the world industrial chain, and Russia takes the lead to form a camp with a circle of resource countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Ukraine, it will stand out and prosper.

If we don’t fight now, when South America runs away from the United States, the Middle East is scattered, Ukraine runs away from Europe and America (mainly Europe), and China uses the South China Sea as a springboard to collude with Southeast Asia and do business with the whole world, it will have to wait for death.

Although I failed to reach Kiev in 1 hour and 22 minutes, I became a laughing stock of netizens. But what if I continue to fight?

If he has withstood the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States, will he be a laughing stock if he can not last for a month?

If we can beat him for three months, six months, a year, or even longer, can we still laugh? Are you still so afraid of Europe, America and NATO? Still licking Europe, America and NATO?

Now, if the fight is well done and the myth of the invincibility of industrial countries is broken, it may be possible that the above-mentioned resources will be close to Russia, right?

From this point of view, can we better understand why Russia fought this inexplicable war?

What the United States, what NATO, that is the ancestral excuse. The real goal is to turn over and become bigger and stronger.

Judging from the current agitation of the global situation, although Russia’s move is not a great victory, it is by no means a failure.

04

Moreover, based on this point, we can understand China’s attitude.

Because China, like Russia, is also in an awkward position.

As Russia said earlier, there is a resource country lying on the shelf of its ancestral power.

The embarrassment of China is that we are a part of the industrial camp that conflicts with the industrial chain dominated by Europe and the United States.

Because we are also oppressed by Europe and the United States, we understand Russia’s feelings, and even secretly hope that he will hit Europe and the United States in the face, break the myth of the invincibility of Europe and the United States, break the superstition of Europe and the United States, break the situation of Europe and the United States covering the sky with one hand, and strive for space for the growth of our industrial chain.

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It can be said that this is one of the fundamental reasons why we have never openly opposed Russia.

But!

On the other hand, from the perspective that we are, after all, a producer of industrial manufactured products, we do not want resource producers to be all over us, because this will greatly increase the cost of our industry.

Therefore, it is impossible for us to firmly support Russia to fight Ukraine, and it is impossible for us to watch it integrate global resources.

This state of “entanglement” makes us not easily roll up our sleeves and end up. Instead, as an offshore balancing party, we coldly observe the chaos.

Unless they hit the back and play off the line, endangering our survival, or if we are confident that we can easily play ten, we will take advantage of this opportunity to gain prestige.

Otherwise, hasty exit will not only damage the strength, but also disrupt the rhythm, and become the target of global jealousy.

Therefore, our attitude must only be to say something like this, which was the case before and is still the case today. Being in a hurry is not our style, nor is it in line with our interest orientation.

In the end, no one knows what this game will be like. When soldiers come to block us, water and earth cover us, there are always more ways than difficulties.

We are still waiting and waiting, and the country is not so?

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