Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
In fact, Pakistan is under the greatest pressure when India makes trouble in the South Asian continent.
Pakistan is regarded by India as a thorn in the side, a thorn in the flesh, a knot in the heart, a nemesis and a prey in the mouth.
India not only wants Pakistan, but also wants to get rid of it. No matter what strategic means India adopts, the ultimate goal is to rush to Pakistan.
In the face of aggressive India, Pakistan can only stand up and face the difficulties. Fortunately, behind it is China’s firm support and the intermittent assistance of the United States.
01 Millennium entanglement
The ancient Indian civilization on the South Asian continent is one of the oldest civilizations in the world.
India also regards itself as the successor of ancient Indian civilization.
So far, research shows that ancient Indian civilization originated in the Indus River Basin, represented by Harappa and Mohenjo Daro (around 2000 BC).
These two sites, which symbolize ancient Indian civilization, are located on the five river plain in the middle reaches of the Indus River, and are now in Pakistan.
In other words, Pakistan is the source of civilization in the South Asian continent.
Pakistan now believes in Islam and respects Islamic civilization. This makes India very unhappy.
In other words, India’s entanglement with Pakistan can be traced back to thousands of years ago. It is difficult to analyze India Pakistan Relations, which is a test of historical skills and thinking height.
Aryans from Central Asia crossed the Hindu Kush mountains along the direction of Afghanistan and reached the Indus River Basin. They conquered the ancient Indian civilization and built a new order represented by Hinduism and caste system.
Aryans were originally one of the three ancient nomadic peoples in the world (the other two are in East Asia and the Middle East), active in the Central Asian steppe. About the Xia and Shang Dynasties in China, the Aryans went south, destroyed three of the four ancient civilizations (except the Chinese civilization) (Egyptian civilization, Babylonian civilization, Indian civilization), and easily conquered the Iranian Plateau, which can be called the ancient civilization crusher. Because of their toughness, they were even worshipped by Hitler and the Nazi Party thousands of years later.
Then the Aryans conquered the Ganges River basin all the way East. They are still the upper class in South Asia, at the top of the pyramid. The blonde stars in Bollywood you see now are Aryans, and most of India’s white parliamentarians are Aryans.
Indians still respect the historical culture created by Aryans, but this culture was spread to India from Pakistan, which has converted to Muslims. This is another entanglement of India.
Why is Pakistan and India so entangled?
The answer lies in the geographical fatalism that cannot be moved and avoided.
02 geopolitical fate
Opening the map is not difficult to find that the South Asian continent is geographically advantaged.
Backed by the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, facing the Indian Ocean, the Iranian Plateau on the right, and the Indochina Peninsula on the left, the geographical location is excellent;
The Indus and Ganges rivers run through it, and the products are extremely rich. The continent of South Asia is much smaller than that of East Asia, but its population is roughly the same as that of East Asia.
In essence, the Indus River is an international river, flowing from China (called Shiquan River in China) to India, then from India to Pakistan, moistening the Indus River Plain (mostly in Pakistan) and then flowing into the Arabian Sea.
The Indus River binds Pakistan and India firmly, connecting the fates of the two countries.
From the perspective of India, the Indus River, the birthplace of South Asian civilization and the source of Indian history and culture, has now fallen into the hands of Pakistan, which does not believe in Hinduism. Therefore, in the “Indian dream”, we should not only take back Kashmir, but also the five rivers plain.
However, from the perspective of Pakistan, it is completely another picture: the South Asian civilization has been spread from Pakistan to India, and India is ungrateful and reckless, which deceives too much.
Why is the cognitive gap between the two countries so large?
The answer is to look at it from a different angle.
The history of the South Asian continent is a history of invaders.
Aryans were the first invaders to suppress the South Asian continent. Subsequently, Persians, Macedonians, Cypriots, big moons, Turks, Arabs, ghaznis, Afghans, Timur Mongols and so on invaded the South Asian continent in turn. At the same time, these invaders also brought their respective civilizations to spread in South Asia.
All these invaders (except the British colonists who arrived in South Asia from the sea) crossed the Hindu Kush mountains, entered the Indus River Plain in South Asia from Kashmir, and then entered the Ganges River Plain.
In short, both the indigenous civilization and the civilization brought by the invaders spread from Pakistan to India.
But after the Arab invasion, this model presented a huge problem. I call it the Grand Canyon of civilization. The following paragraph may burn your brain, so you can skip it if you are not interested.
03 Grand Canyon of civilization
There is a passage that says:
India: How dare you lie on the side of your couch
Pakistan: shut up! How can I always hear your snoring on the side of my couch?!
In those days, Aryans conquered many places, established Hinduism in South Asia and established Zoroastrianism in the Middle East.
Hinduism has continued to this day, and the worship of fire has long vanished.
The key reason is that Hinduism conquered South Asia, while Zoroastrianism failed to conquer the Middle East.
The Semitic nomads living in the Middle East (mainly Jews and Arabs) are as good at creating religion as the Aryans. Judaism and Christianity founded by Jews are not inferior to the religions founded by Aryans.
Islam, founded by Arabs, is even more powerful, sweeping the Middle East (assimilating Zoroastrianism), and radiating to Africa, Europe, Central Asia and South Asia.
The eastward branch enters the Indus River Basin from the Iranian Plateau and sends Islamic civilization to South Asia.
Hundreds of years later (after several groups of invaders), the Islamic Mongols established the Mughal Dynasty on the South Asian continent, which can be seen as the “sequel” of the Timur Mongolian Empire.
The Mughal dynasty ruled South Asia for more than 300 years from 1526 to 1858; The elite of the Empire believed in Islam, and most people still believed in Hinduism. It is just the intersection of Islamic civilization and Indian civilization.
That is to say, the Mughal Dynasty failed to allow Islamic civilization to conquer the South Asian continent. Islamic civilization took root only in the Indus River Basin in the West and the Ganges River Basin in the northeast, and Hindu forces remained elsewhere.
The confrontation between Hinduism and Islam has created the Grand Canyon of civilization on the South Asian continent.
This leads to such a situation——
From the perspective of Pakistan, Indians are stubborn and do not accept the great Islamic civilization.
From the perspective of India, Pakistan was conquered by Islamic civilization and betrayed the Indian civilization tradition.
After the British colonists came to the South Asian continent, they deliberately created a conflict between Hindus and Muslims; After leaving the South Asian continent, many “political mines” were deliberately planted.
Therefore, the contradiction between India and Pakistan has continued from thousands of years ago to the present, and its complexity is no less than that of the “Balkans” that detonated the first World War.
All these complex past events have evolved into today’s game of life and death.
04 game of life and death
The game between Pakistan and India is everywhere. The most direct, realistic and sharp part is to compete for the water of the Indus River.
The Indus River Plain is a densely populated area in Pakistan, carrying 99% of Pakistan’s grain production areas.
It is no exaggeration to say that the Indus River is Pakistan’s lifeline, but India is upstream! The main stream of the Indus River and five important tributaries (Jhelum River, genab River, Ravi River, satlej River and bias River, which are also known as the “five river plain”, the birthplace of ancient Indian civilization) all flow from India to Pakistan.
Since the “partition of India and Pakistan” in 1947, the two countries began to compete for control of the Indus River.
India in the upper reaches can cut off the main stream and important tributaries of the Indus River at any time, leaving Pakistan in a desperate situation. The war between India and Pakistan can also be understood as the war on water.
With the mediation of all countries in the world, India and Pakistan signed the Indus River water treaty in 1960:
The water of the West Three Rivers (the main stream of Indus River, Jhelum River and genab River) is used by Pakistan;
The water of the three East rivers (Ravi River, Sutlej River and bias River) is used by India.
But this treaty is far from solving the problem. Because the West three rivers in Pakistan account for 80% of the water resources in India, and the East three rivers in India account for only 20%.
If it is an underdeveloped era, it doesn’t matter if there is more water and less water. However, with the development of industry and the improvement of agricultural technology, the demand for water resources in various countries is increasing. Look at the rivers around their cities, especially the cities on the plains. Is there less water flowing?
What’s more, the border between India and Pakistan is a desert.
Northwest India can only rely on the Indus River for 20% of its water.
Pakistan can only rely on the Indus River for 80% of its water.
The more developed the two sides are, the more intense the competition for Indian river resources is, and the more brutal the war is.
Therefore, the competition between India and Pakistan for Kashmir in the upper reaches of the Indus River is also more intense.
Now there are voices on the Internet saying that China, which is more upstream, can control the water source of the Indus River, threaten India and support Pakistan railway. In fact, there is a cognitive misunderstanding. The water flow from Shiquan River (upstream of the main stream of the Indus River) in China accounts for a small proportion of the main stream of the Indus River, which does not play a decisive role. In other words, even if it can control the flow of Indian River, China will not do that, because it means war. What China needs is peace.
So we must recognize the reality: India is making trouble in South Asia and seems to be shouting loudly at China; But the main target is still Pakistan, specifically Kashmir.
05 selection and objectives
I have written so much to explain that India’s troop deployment will be “Xiang Zhuang dances his sword for Peigong (Kashmir)”
If India wins Kashmir through a surprise war, the next step will be to seize the five rivers plain from a commanding position and make Pakistan completely prey. Because——
Taking Kashmir is equivalent to completely locking up Pakistan’s water resources and solving the water supply problem in northwest India.
Take the five rivers plain, the Indus civilization (the origin of South Asian Civilization) will come to India, and India’s historical and cultural heritage will be straightened out.
At the same time, the strategic situation will block the connection between Pakistan and China and cut off the “China Pakistan Economic Corridor”.
——The external fetters of India’s rise have all been lifted!
On the contrary, if Pakistan takes Kashmir, it can completely control the Indus River and take its destiny in its own hands. The whole northwest of India has become a corner. India’s external conditions have deteriorated, making its rise more difficult.
Pakistan will become India’s doomed nemesis.
From the perspective of big power game, China’s strategy in South Asia, in addition to curbing India’s ambitions for Chinese territory, should also help Pakistan defend Kashmir.