Pelosi, are you coming or not?

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Source: jingsiyouwo666 (id:jingsiyouwo666)

Many friends asked me to talk about the possible visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Pelosi. I feel unwell and in bad condition these two days. I don’t think I can say anything insightful, so I’ll simply introduce the information I collected and my superficial understanding to my friends.

First of all, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is a major event. Why?

Pelosi has a high level in the U.S. government. Specifically, she is the third ranking American figure. In the U.S. government, the first ranking is the president, the second ranking is the vice president and President of the Senate, and the third ranking is Pelosi’s identity: speaker of the house of Representatives.

There is one thing that can directly indicate this sort. In case the president of the United States cannot become president due to any special circumstances, the vice president and Senate speaker will succeed him. If something happens to the vice president and the president of the Senate and he cannot perform the presidency, then a speaker of the house of Representatives like Pelosi will succeed him.

Due to the high level of this person, it is rare for such a person to visit Taiwan. The last time this happened was in 1997 when Gingrich, then speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taiwan.

However, the situation at that time was a little different from that at present. At that time, U.S. President Clinton belonged to the Democratic Party, while House Speaker Gingrich belonged to the Republican Party. Therefore, public opinion believes that Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan to a certain extent was against Democratic President Clinton.

At present, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Biden are both Democrats. Therefore, if Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visits Taiwan this time, the nature will be extremely bad. In short, it’s really a big deal.

Since it is a major event, China is also a big response this time.

How did China respond? We can clearly feel from the statements made by the spokesmen of the Ministry of foreign affairs and the Ministry of national defense.

On July 19, just after the news of Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan was revealed by the media, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian expressed China’s solemn position. In addition to the words of principle, the most critical specific statement was: “Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan shall not be arranged”.

For this sentence, people who don’t often pay attention to factual politics may not have a very obvious feeling, but if we make a slight comparison, we can find the difference in tone here. Let’s take the statement made by the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of foreign affairs when Pelosi said for the first time in April this year that he was going to visit Taiwan.

On April 7, the news of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has just been revealed by the media. After a series of principled statements, Zhao Lijian, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of foreign affairs, said the most critical sentence was: “the United States… Should immediately cancel Pelosi’s plan to visit Taiwan”.

Let’s have a good experience.

If you want to do something, the boss knows, and the boss tells you, “you should cancel this plan.”. This is a situation.

In the second case, when you want to do something, the boss knows and says to you, “you can’t do it.”.

We need to have a good experience of the taste.

After Zhao Lijian said this, after a few days of public opinion fermentation, on July 25, Zhao Lijian once again expressed China’s solemn position, in which a new word was used, called “stand ready”.

The original intention of the word “stand ready” is to be used for military affairs. Does Zhao Lijian use “stand ready” here, in the end, mean military affairs, or is it a metaphor? I prefer that he used the original meaning of the word, which refers to military.

During this period, some media broke the news that a US military figure said that the US military was formulating a plan and might send aircraft carriers and fighter planes to protect Pelosi’s fleeing visit to Taiwan.

So I think the word “stand ready” used by Zhao Lijian here is related to military. What’s more, this is originally a public opinion battle. How the enemy wants to understand it is his business. At least he can’t rule out this option.

In fact, Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan this time. From the beginning, the focus of public opinion has shifted to the military. In response to a reporter’s question on July 20, US President Biden said: “the (US) military doesn’t think this is a good idea.”

This shows that both sides have a problem in mind: the army. This means that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this time will probably lead to military conflict.

These are indirect analyses. Subsequently, Tan Kefei, spokesman of the Ministry of national defense of China, made such a statement in response to a reporter’s question. I won’t repeat the principled words. The key words are: “if the United States insists on going its own way, the Chinese army will never sit idly by.”

This means that if Pelosi rushes to Taiwan, the PLA will definitely go out.

In the words of ordinary people, if Pelosi really visits Taiwan this time, there is a great possibility of war. Of course, it’s hard to say how big the war will be.

How big a battle will it be? The official didn’t say. So people are speculating. There are various kinds of folk speculations. I am willing to introduce to my friends a guess that I think is relatively reliable, that is Hu Xijin’s guess.

I analyzed in April this year that Hu Xijin has a special identity.

On the one hand, he retired from the post of editor in chief of the global times at the end of last year, so he is an ordinary people, like me, an ordinary Chinese netizen. But on the other hand, he is a former editor in chief of the global times, so he won’t talk nonsense. In April, I joked that he would not go overboard when excited like me. Also, he must have some information. Unlike me, he doesn’t even have an acquaintance in Beijing. Think about it yourself.

Therefore, his analysis of these things is more reliable than others. I’m not saying that his words are absolutely reliable, I’m saying that his reliability is relatively high.

At the same time, in the field of international public opinion, there is a practice that some official words that are inconvenient to say should be said through some media or media people with special identities.

Take the news that Pelosi may visit Taiwan this time. In fact, it is just the wind released by a so-called source quoted by the British media “Financial Times”. If we mechanically think that this is not an official announcement, it can be ignored.

However, the whole world pays attention, and China pays more attention, or everyone takes it seriously, because this is the routine and practice of public opinion warfare.

For the United States, he did not officially announce, left room, and deliberately let some media release, is to test China’s attitude, so this situation, the official language called it “ventilation”.

Therefore, we can’t take what Hu Xijin said at the critical moment as the words of ordinary Chinese netizens like me.

Let’s see what Hu Xijin said.

Hu Xijin said on the wechat official account “Hu Xijin observation” on July 25: “the most direct and effective way is to block the airspace in and out of Taiwan, or send PLA warplanes to fly over Taiwan Island.”

Hu Xijin also said:

“If the Taiwan Army dares to open fire on the PLA warplanes that fly with Pelosi’s aircraft or fly into the airspace over Taiwan island alone, it will inevitably encounter overwhelming retaliation from our side, which will mean the early arrival of the war in the Taiwan Strait. If the U.S. aircraft carrier provocatively approaches the Taiwan island at this time, the people’s Liberation Army will definitely send enough military forces to confront it. Shore based missiles will also aim at the U.S. warships. Once there is a maritime conflict between China and the United States, the U.S. aircraft carrier will be deployed The team will be destroyed. “

Of course, I understand Hu Xijin’s meaning. Even if Pelosi visits Taiwan, we are not taking the initiative to launch the war of reunification in advance. Instead, when we block Taiwan’s airspace or send PLA warplanes over Taiwan Island, the Taiwan army or the US military can only admit counsellors and not resist. As long as he resists, we will further escalate. If he doesn’t resist and he confesses to counseling, then we will generally stop here.

This reminds me of a famous saying by Pang Guoxing, the war hero of China’s counterattack against India in 1962. In the battle report written by pangguoxing, there is such a sentence: “the enemy not only does not surrender, but also dares to fight back at me.”

This time, I’m afraid we’ll have to follow the routine of pangguoxing, the war hero in 1962. Repeat the famous saying of Pang Guoxing, the combat hero of that year: “the enemy not only does not surrender, but also dares to fight back at me.”

In this way, it depends on whether Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, has the courage to take two steps in China’s airspace this time.

At present, Pelosi’s position to the outside world is like this. She told the media: “based on security factors, I will not discuss any trip.”

In other words, she doesn’t tell others whether she goes out or not.

However, she thought that she might be in danger, because Biden had told the media that the military did not think it was a good idea, so she responded, “I think the president meant that the military might be worried that my plane would be shot down, or something like that.”

This shows that Pelosi, who has passed her 82nd birthday this year and is now 83 years old, is still clear-minded. She thought of her possible risks this time.

This is the current situation.

Well, guess the future. Please note, I’m just guessing.

To be honest, I personally think that it is more likely that Pelosi will not dare to come this time.

Why? Now the situation is that the brave will win if they meet on a narrow road. So who is the brave in this game between China and the United States?

I think it’s China.

Because, the so-called brave, is about a state of mind, that is, to see who doesn’t want to die. As the Chinese saying goes, “the soft is afraid of the hard, the hard is afraid of the Leng, and the Leng is afraid of the fatal.” In this game, who is the loser between China and the United States?

Please note that this time it is a game between two countries, not a fight between ordinary people. There is a very important feature of national game, which is rationality. That is, we should make a good calculation, make a good account, carefully consider the pros and cons, and finally come to a serious and rational choice.

Well, a very important factor is that Taiwan is the meat of the heart for China. For the United States, Taiwan is just a pawn.

I have repeatedly said before that the United States does not care about the life or death of Taiwan in essence, and even whether Taiwan will be reunified. What the United States cares about is the rise of China, and Taiwan is just a pawn for the United States to curb China’s rise.

To illustrate my argument, I raised two bold hypothetical questions in the previous article.

First, if the Taiwan Island sinks into the sea, but it can contain China’s rise, do you think the United States will love the sinking of the Taiwan Island and not let it sink? The United States must be happy to see the sinking of Taiwan Island, as long as it can contain the rise of China.

My second question is even more ridiculous. This question is, if Taiwan’s reunification can curb China’s rise, will the United States care about Taiwan’s reunification? My answer is that as long as China’s rise can be contained, the United States does not care whether Taiwan will be reunified.

In the final analysis, the United States does not care about Taiwan’s future, whether it is good or bad, whether it is unified or not, it does not care. It cares about containing China’s rise, so Taiwan is just a pawn of the United States.

However, Taiwan is China’s heart meat. If anyone takes this heart meat, I will definitely fight with you. But if anyone wants to take away a piece from the United States, he must settle the account. Is it worth it? Then, is the United States willing to compensate itself for Taiwan?

Therefore, on the Taiwan issue, China will sacrifice its life when it cannot retreat. Therefore, at the 19th Shangri La dialogue on June 12, Chinese State Councilor and defense minister Wei Fenghe said three “absolutes” on the Taiwan issue. Please note that they are “absolute”. The three “absolutes” are:

“The reunification of the motherland is absolutely necessary. There is absolutely no good end to engaging in Taiwan independence and secession, and the interference of external forces will never succeed.”

This is China’s attitude.

And what about the United States? U.S. President Biden has made it clear to the outside world that the military believes this is not a good idea, which at least shows that there are differences within them and they are still wrangling. Of course, they call wrangling democracy, so let them continue democracy. On the issue of the reunification of the motherland, China’s democratic process has been completed, and everyone has reached a consensus, that is, the three “absolutes”, and the first “absolutes” is: “the reunification of the motherland is absolutely necessary.”

Some friends may want to ask, since it is so absolute, why not unify as soon as possible? It’s so annoying to drag on like this!

I have said many times on this issue that the reunification of the motherland is no longer a question of whether or not China should be reunified or whether it can be reunified. These are not problems. Don’t discuss them, don’t talk about them. What we are going to discuss now is how to achieve unification with the minimum cost.

From the perspective of cost accounting, I have made many analyses of more than 10000 words each time in the past. China is now relatively strong, but this strength is limited to the extent that if external forces obstruct China’s reunification, China can make it disappear and finally achieve reunification. However, if China becomes more powerful, external forces will be completely killed for obstructing China’s reunification. By then, China may be able to achieve reunification at the least cost.

Therefore, we often see that when discussing the reunification of the motherland, experts and scholars with official backgrounds will say such a common phrase: “time is on our side”.

This is a big analysis.

From a small perspective, there are many aspects to reduce the cost of the reunification of the motherland, one of which is the moral cost.

At present, the overall situation on the battlefield of international public opinion is still that the enemy is strong and we are weak. The specific manifestation is that Americans like to talk nonsense, but they are still believed.

According to the situation of national reunification, China naturally has legal and moral reasons to launch a war of reunification at any time, but the United States is certainly likely to slander and discredit at any time. If someone in the world listens to his slander and slander, he will muddle into the ranks of the United States to suppress China. We are not afraid of this kind of pressure, and we can definitely withstand this kind of pressure, but every point of this pressure increases our cost.

If the fuse of reunification is triggered by the United States, the United States will naturally still discredit and spread rumors, but the difficulty coefficient of discrediting and spreading rumors will decrease, and there will be relatively few people who follow him in a muddle headed way in the international community. Therefore, the war for the reunification of Taiwan may require the United States to provide us with an opportunity to reduce our costs. In particular, try not to significantly interrupt the process of national rejuvenation.

The manifestation of this opportunity is that the United States provokes China.

This time, Pelosi intends to visit Taiwan. If the trip really takes place, it will provide such an opportunity for China.

If he really wants to make such a contribution to the reunification of China, then we will accept it with laughter.

This is to help China reduce the cost of unifying Taiwan.

To be more specific.

The reunification of the motherland can be divided into early reunification and late reunification in time, and there are two specific ways: one step in place and gradual encroachment.

The so-called one step is to launch an attack suddenly, buy and sell with one hammer, and get it done at once. The so-called gradual encroachment means that China’s military forces should continue to press against the Taiwan Island.

For example, Taiwan has also designated an air defense identification zone. According to him, that is his identification zone, and we can’t go there. In the past, we really didn’t go. Now, we go and often go. Now the identification zone has basically been abolished. This is Taiwan’s “Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone”, which has its important military base and will be one of the main battlefields in the future war.

On July 26, Taiwan took the initiative to report to the outside world that the PLA entered its so-called air defense identification zone at 7:39 a.m., with an altitude of 4 kilometers. Taiwan’s “freedom times” also made special statistics, saying that PLA military aircraft had gone to his air defense identification zone for a total of 18 days in July and 147 days since 2022.

For another example, the Taiwan independence elements used to say that there was a so-called central line of the strait between Taiwan and the mainland, and the warplanes of the people’s Liberation Army also crossed the so-called central line of the Strait they spoke of every three to five times, and went deep into the opposite far away.

For example, on May 25 this year, the PLA Wuzhi 10 attack helicopter went. Then the Taiwan media hyped, and major Wu Qian, spokesman of the Ministry of national defense, said in response to reporters, “Taiwan is a part of China. Where does it come from? What is the middle line of the Strait?” My understanding is that the strait between Taiwan Province and Fujian Province, just like the strait between Guangdong Province and Hainan Province, is Chinese. What is the middle line or not?

In addition, the PLA’s military strength often appears in the four directions of the East, West, North and south of Taiwan Island. The latest news is that the day before yesterday, on July 25, the first day of the Hankuang exercise in Taiwan, the tb-001 “double tailed scorpion” UAV of the people’s Liberation Army flew over the gonggu Strait from the East China Sea, then turned south and passed through the eastern waters of Taiwan, crossed gonggu Island, Shiyuan Island, Naguo island and other places, and circled Taiwan Island. This is the first time that the unmanned aerial vehicle of the people’s Liberation Army has flown around the island. This UAV is the largest UAV in the PLA, with a weight of 2.8 tons, a wingspan of 20 meters, a length of 10 meters, a maximum range of 6000 kilometers, weapons and a maximum load of one ton. Naturally, this flight around the island is not a tour. Naturally, it is necessary to monitor the Hankuang exercise in Taiwan, and it can also be announced politically.

In short, the force of the people’s Liberation Army should continue to press against the Taiwan Island, which has been pressing him breathless. Well, this thing should be done often. If he does more, he will get used to it. Naturally, there must be continuous progress.

Next, what we need to do is that PLA military aircraft should fly over Taiwan Island. If they fly more times, they can go further and impose a no fly over the entire airspace of Taiwan Island. Of course, it can also be implemented directly in one step.

Once the flight ban is imposed on Taiwan Island, no one will come as soon as he wants. In the future, even if an ordinary congressman in the United States wants to visit Taiwan, he must get the approval of the central government of China. The consent of Taiwan independence elements does not count.

At present, this step has not been achieved. If Pelosi dares to visit Taiwan this time, we can take the opportunity to do this.

In this context, to achieve this step, the United States wants to discredit us in international public opinion, causing a relatively small rebound, because it was she who provoked us first. In the words of ordinary people, it was she who caused the trouble first. Then, the cost we bear is relatively small. If Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this time helps us reach this step, it will save us costs.

Therefore, I am very tangled about the mentality that Pelosi may visit Taiwan this time.

On the one hand, I really object to her coming and don’t welcome her. Because if he comes, after all, it is to cheer up the Taiwan independence elements, who have been fooled by the United States into not knowing their last name.

On the other hand, if he really comes, we can turn danger into opportunity, turn waste into treasure, and do bad things as good.

On the contrary, I am very calm about whether she will come this time. If she doesn’t come, it’s fine; If she comes, we can “entertain” according to the established reception plan.

Our hospitality plan has not changed since the founding of new China, which is reflected in the theme song of Shangganling, a film made in 1956 to respond to the war to resist U.S. aggression and aid Korea. The song is called “my motherland”, sung by Guo Lanying, a famous singer who has influenced several generations of people in New China. There is a well-known saying in the lyrics, that is:

When friends come, there is good wine; If the Jackal comes, it is greeted by a shotgun!

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