Pelosi is a demon, and China and the United States “meet on a narrow road” on the Taiwan issue. The brave wins!

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Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu

My judgment is that Pelosi will not visit Taiwan in August.

However, from the perspective of China, preventing Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is definitely not based on wishful thinking, nor on the self-discipline of Pelosi himself or the Biden administration. It is based on China’s spirit of “fighting at all costs” on this issue and “playing a card” with the United States: let the U.S. government clearly understand that if Pelosi insists, China will take substantive military action, It may not only prevent Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, but also cause Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan to trigger a direct military confrontation between China and the United States.

At present, the calculation of the United States on the Taiwan issue is very clear:

——What the United States wants is to “use Taiwan to control China”, use the Taiwan issue to contain, harass and contain China, and sell arms to Taiwan by the way, so as to help the U.S. military industrial complex make a steady profit;

——The United States will never work hard for “Taiwan independence”. The most likely choice for the United States is to repeat its trick in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the Taiwan issue, and impose extreme sanctions on China through war inducement, war inducement and war coercion, so as to interrupt the process of China’s development and rejuvenation. However, this is not the best time for the United States to showdown with China on the Taiwan issue, and the United States is not ready;

——The Biden administration is facing many challenges, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and domestic economic difficulties. At this moment, it will not create complications and risk military conflict with China to support Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

For this reason, there are also different opinions on Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan within the US government.

Biden himself said that the U.S. military believes that Pelosi’s current visit to Taiwan is not a good idea.

In addition, Biden administration officials are also letting Pelosi know what kind of strong Chinese reaction she may face if she visits Taiwan through private exchanges.

In view of the political structure of the separation of powers in the United States, the Biden administration will certainly not directly say that Pelosi cannot visit Taiwan, but they will certainly tend to let Pelosi see various risks and then retreat.

Both Biden and Pelosi belong to the Democratic Party, and they are highly consistent in combating trump. There are many channels of communication between them, and there is a lot of room for compromise.

However, there are also forces in the United States that are encouraging Pelosi to take personal risks, including Secretary of state Pompeo of the trump administration, who was sanctioned by China after stepping down, and some other extreme Republican Anti China elements.

The logic of these people is also very simple. If Pelosi gives up visiting Taiwan because of China’s severe warning, it will show the outside world that China’s severe warning has made Pelosi and Biden’s government “afraid”, which shows that China has greater decision-making power on the Taiwan issue.

They also hope that through Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China will become an army.

If China “retreats” or takes retaliatory measures that are not strong enough, they can claim that China’s continuous severe warnings during this period are just “bluff”.

If things develop to this stage, it will greatly stimulate these people’s Anti China arrogance.

However, these voices are not mainstream within American society.

At least for now, the Biden administration is unlikely to recklessly support Pelosi at the risk of military conflict with China to prove that the United States has greater decision-making power on the Taiwan issue.

For China, it is still necessary to continue to increase the pressure on the U.S. government on this issue, not only to give a continuous warning to Pelosi himself and the Biden government verbally, but also to let the Chinese people’s Liberation Army make various crisis plans in action. It may even be necessary to start from the bottom line thinking and make extreme preparations for the “possible outbreak of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait tonight”.

The logic of the interaction between China and the United States on the Taiwan issue is very clear: the more China takes the posture of “not hesitate to fight a war” and makes solid preparations for it, the more likely it is to bring substantive deterrence to the extreme Anti China elements inside and outside the U.S. government who hope to “use Taiwan to contain China”.

In the final analysis, for China and the United States, the positioning and value of the Taiwan issue in their respective strategies are obviously different, as are the costs, resources and risks that China and the United States are willing to pay for it.

For the United States, the Taiwan issue is a card, Taiwan is a pawn, and the Taiwan issue does not involve the core interests of the United States.

However, for China, the Taiwan issue involves China’s sovereignty, security and core interests of development, as well as the national feelings and dignity of the Chinese people. China cannot make any concessions on this issue.

At this moment, the Biden administration is probably unwilling to bear the huge risk of direct military conflict between the two nuclear powers in order to make Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan possible.

Next, the leaders of China and the United States will hold a video meeting. I believe that the Taiwan issue will once again become a focus topic.

We can observe whether Pelosi dares to visit Taiwan in the end. However, as far as the struggle strategy of China and the United States on the Taiwan issue is concerned, it is very clear, that is, “the brave will win if they meet on a narrow road”.

On the Taiwan issue, the times and trends are on China’s side. China will certainly choose the way that costs the least for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation to complete national reunification. Therefore, it will not rush forward and will not take the initiative to provoke conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. However, if the United States insists on “curbing China with Taiwan” and “Taiwan independence” elements insist on “relying on the United States for independence”, they will eventually touch China’s bottom line and red line, and pay a heavy price for it.

The United States is essentially a “paper tiger” on the Taiwan issue.

This “paper tiger” is very willing to use the Taiwan issue to stimulate, provoke and contain China; However, it is absolutely impossible for this “paper tiger” to fight desperately for “Taiwan independence” and even to fight China for “Taiwan independence”.

However, “paper tiger” and “real tiger” can be transformed into each other.

If China cannot show the courage and determination to “fight at all costs” on the Taiwan issue, and cannot show the overwhelming military strength that makes the United States and its allies despair, the “paper tiger” of the United States will become a “real tiger” on the Taiwan issue. The United States and Taiwan are linked by cutting sausage. There are still many things that can be done, and there are many means to stimulate, provoke and contain China.

Today, China severely warned Pelosi not to visit Taiwan. The significance lies not only in the present, but also in the long run.

At present, China’s severe warning will definitely make some people in the Pelosi and Biden administration “mutter” in their hearts. No matter how calm they appear, they will take it seriously when today’s China sends a substantive threat to the United States.

In the long run, if China finally makes Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan “yellow” through strict warnings and solid military preparations, strategically speaking, it can show the outside world that China has the ability to make the United States fear and yield, and other countries will also see it in the eyes of other countries. At that time, the United States will be regarded as a “paper tiger”, not just China.

In addition, if China shows the courage of “not hesitate to fight” on this issue, it will let the international community see that China’s defense of the one China principle is serious and does what it says. In fact, it will also lay a public opinion foundation for China to completely solve the Taiwan issue in the future.

There is nothing in the world, and no one cares about it.

Taiwan is China’s Taiwan, which has nothing to do with the United States, but the United States insists on “using Taiwan to control China”, and China has no retreat, so it can only fight resolutely.

But no matter from which perspective, if China and the United States really want to have a showdown on the Taiwan issue, the United States must be the “one who blinks first”.

The words of a family are for reference only.

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