Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
Will Pelosi visit Taiwan?
In Zhanhao’s view, this is not a fundamental problem. Because Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan itself is not inherent or should be, but a derived issue. Why haven’t U.S. leaders visited Taiwan in the past 25 years? The fundamental reason is that China US relations are good, and the common interests of both sides far outweigh differences.
However, as the overall national strength and influence of China and the United States fluctuate, China and the United States have strategic differences on the line. This contradiction between China and the United States has no room for real reconciliation because the United States listed China as the largest strategic opponent in 2018. China and the United States are doomed to be rivals and are bound to differentiate. In this process, all actions of each other are actually seeking greater space for themselves. This is the fundamental state of the two countries. It is this fundamental state that determines everything that is bound to happen.
For China, the aspiration of national rejuvenation and the pursuit of a better life pursued by the 1.4 billion people are unshakable and unstoppable goals. Under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, the 1.4 billion Chinese people are moving towards the goal. Whoever stands in the way of China’s development is China’s enemy, and China will fight it to the end.
For the United States, global hegemony must be maintained, which is a strategic interest that the American elite will never give up. Hegemony lies in the United States, which is at the top of the global food chain. There are huge hegemonic interests, and the rules are the most conducive to the United States. It’s really not possible. The United States drove the aircraft carrier and everything was settled.
However, the core issue now is: China does not think that it has affected the hegemony of the United States, and China has no intention of challenging the hegemony of the United States. China is only realizing the common aspiration of the 1.4 billion Chinese people, and China does not allow any country to block China; The United States is different. He believes that China is the biggest challenger to American hegemony and the stumbling block for the United States to continue to maintain hegemony, so China must be suppressed. This is actually the fundamental contradiction between China and the United States.
It is based on this fundamental contradiction that the speaker of the US House of Representatives twice announced his readiness to visit Taiwan. In fact, her visit to Taiwan is both hype and the goal she pursues. From the perspective of the overall pattern, this strategic contradiction between China and the United States in the future cannot be resolved in a short period of time. China US relations cannot be reconciled in the next decade or so. The only difference is the degree of irreconcilability and whether it has been completely intensified.
Of course, China does not want to intensify contradictions, because China is still seeking development, and the time is largely on China’s side. The United States is different. The United States has seen that the time is on China’s side, so the United States must hold China down before China’s comprehensive national strength surpasses the United States. The Sino US trade war since 2018 has proved that the United States has no strength to hold China down alone.
Against this background, the United States decided to continue to promote the “Indo Pacific strategy” and promote the new cold war. To promote the new cold war, the United States must take a move to force out the war between Russia and Ukraine, and then stimulate the confrontation between Russia and Europe, so as to enhance the control of the United States over the European Union and NATO. Once the United States controls Europe and Europe obeys the United States, it will pull Europe together to deal with China, and then it will further promote the new cold war.
After provoking the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, how to further intensify the contradiction between Europe and China? In addition to the obstacles that the United States has tried every means to set for China and Europe, the Taiwan card is a very important card. The significance of the Taiwan card to the United States lies in that China has no retreat in Taiwan and can only go to Wutong when necessary. For the United States, if China’s military unification of Taiwan can lead to EU sanctions and blockade of China, the United States can start the plan and trigger conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. Even, in order to trigger the Cold War confrontation between the East and the west, the United States may even be ready to trigger military conflicts in China, including the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea, the East China Sea and other places, so as to stimulate the west to make every effort to sanction and block China.
Based on this, the United States actually has two ideas: one idea is to play in person when necessary and get allies to deal with China at one stroke, but this idea is too dangerous for countries to be sure, including the United States; Another idea is that by provoking China, the United States will force China to act when it deems it appropriate. Once it does, the United States can fool its allies into imposing sanctions on China, thereby creating a new cold war.
Which idea will the United States choose? At least from the current situation, the United States does not want to play in person so soon, or the United States simply hopes that China will unify Taiwan by force at some time, so that the United States and its allies can find reasons for sanctions against China. However, according to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), China’s military unification of Taiwan alone may not be able to completely antagonize the East and the West. In order to achieve the purpose of confrontation between the East and the west, the United States will have to create conflicts between North Korea and South Korea, as well as conflicts in the South China Sea and the East China Sea in the future.
Therefore, the essence of the United States is to fight the new cold war, which is based on promoting related things by taking China as its first strategic opponent. Pelosi provoked on the Taiwan issue and tried to visit Taiwan. On the surface, the US government opposed it. It seemed to be a personal act, but in fact it was not. Even if it’s not Pelosi, it’s peloton. In short, there must be such a person. Knowing this, we can understand why Pelosi is going to visit Taiwan all the time. This is not just her personal impulse, but she sees the interest opportunities. Under the situation of big country game, the power of this pattern is transmitted to the United States, and Pelosi’s position is exactly this explosive point. Pelosi certainly knows this. By doing so, she sees the general trend of American strategy, so she wants to gain the political energy she and the Democratic Party have gained through this.
Therefore, the fundamental logic of this contest is here. All the so-called contradictions within the U.S. government objectively also exist, but that is just a difference in the choice of ways and methods. Their attitudes, positions and orientations towards China are completely consistent, and the differences in the choice of ways and methods include different considerations of timing, positions, and interests. However, there is no doubt that their core purposes are the same.
As we all know, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party of the United States are at odds now, but they are at odds with each other on the China issue. With regard to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Republicans have been fanning the flames for days. Former Secretary of state pompeio threatened that he would “go to Taiwan together”. Just now, McConnell, the leader of the Republican Party in the US Senate, said that if Pelosi gave up his visit to Taiwan, it would be a “victory” for Chinese Mainland. Therefore, on the issue of China, the position of the American elite is highly consistent.
From the perspective of China, of course, no matter what the logic of the United States is, China’s logic is that this is China’s territory. No force is allowed to split Taiwan. As long as the United States dares to do it, we can only do it with him. There is no choice. Of course, you have to rely on strength to do this. Otherwise, if you don’t have strength, you can’t help it. So you have to rely on strength to support what you want to do. China has prepared for the worst.
In the United States, Pelosi is not alone, but a group of people. US officials said that if Pelosi decided to visit Taiwan, the military would increase its military activities in the Asia Pacific region. They declined to provide details, but said that “fighters, warships, surveillance assets and other military systems” might be used to provide security for Pelosi. In other words, if the result of the game is Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, it must be a quasi confrontation between China and the United States in military affairs, which cannot be run away.
As for the successive statements of the US side, China’s attitude is also very tough. In response to a reporter’s question on July 27, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that we have repeatedly expressed our firm opposition to the solemn position of Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. If the United States insists on its own course and challenges China’s bottom line, it will be resolutely opposed, and all the consequences arising therefrom will be borne by the United States. In fact, the statement of the Ministry of national defense on the 26th has made it clear that the Chinese army will never sit idly by and be ready.
Inside the United States, a fierce game is taking place around this matter. Biden said on the 20th that “the military doesn’t think this is a good idea”. Biden’s national security adviser Sullivan also publicly opposed Pelosi’s plan. However, on the 25th, the White House press secretary said that the plan of visiting Taiwan would be decided by Pelosi himself. This is the state of the United States. Their goal is Taiwan. They finally do these things mainly because of the choice of time.
According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), even if Pelosi retreated due to China’s counter-measures, she may still make a comeback in a period of time. Even after the mid-term election, the Republican Party took control of the house of Representatives, and the speaker was no longer Pelosi, then the new Republican speaker might make the same choice.
Based on this, we need to understand that the challenge of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is actually the beginning of the confrontation between China and the United States. The confrontation will only become more intense. Today is Pelosi, tomorrow is peloton, and they will take turns to fight. For us, what we need is to continue to strengthen our ability and constantly turn back the impulse of the United States. Of course, maybe one day, when the heat comes, it will be the arson between China and the United States!
The situation is stronger than people. This is also an opportunity for China to show its strength and to announce to the world that China is rejuvenating. What should come is always coming, and the hard stone that should be touched is always touching! If the United States really dares to come, let’s touch each other hard to see each other’s hardness and fineness!