Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
US House Speaker Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan again!
According to the report of the financial times on the 18th local time, citing six people familiar with the matter, the speaker of the US House of Representatives Pelosi plans to lead a delegation to Taiwan in August this year. According to the financial times, this will be the first visit to Taiwan by the speaker of the US House of representatives in 25 years. In April this year, she announced that she would visit Taiwan. As a result, she was temporarily “strategic positive” and finally failed to make the trip.
Screenshot of Financial Times report
As Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) analyzed at that time, Pelosi’s so-called “positive” is more likely to postpone her trip to Taiwan, but she will never give up. The reason why Pelosi failed to make the trip last time is more likely to be that the timing is wrong, because the Democratic Party is likely to take Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as an important bargaining chip for making gimmicks in the mid-term election. If it is fought out in the first half of the year, it will have no effect at the critical moment in the second half of the year. Therefore, at that time, Zhanhao emphasized in the article that Pelosi would also restart her trip to Taiwan to build momentum for the mid-term elections.
One of the fundamental reasons why Pelosi is now ready to restart her trip to Taiwan is the urgency of the Democratic Party’s election. Led by trump, the Republican Party is now gaining momentum. The mid-term election in November is likely to win the Senate and house of representatives at one stroke. By then, Biden will not be a lame president, but a lame president. Moreover, trump may announce again soon, despite the president, which will be a major blow to the Democratic Party.
In this case, as speaker of the house of Representatives, Pelosi needs to do something. However, for the Democratic Party, it is indeed embarrassing now. Although the United States has provided a lot of military assistance to the Ukrainian army on the Ukrainian battlefield, it cannot stop the Russian army from moving forward. Now, udong is basically eaten by the Russian army. Once the Russian army takes central Ukraine and even Kiev in the next few months, it will definitely be a major political blow to the Biden government and the Democratic Party. How to find a “major event” to restore some decline? The Democratic Party is likely to choose to let Pelosi visit Taiwan.
Why Pelosi hyped his visit to Taiwan is one of the fundamental logic. Of course, in terms of the national strategy of the United States, he must play the “Taiwan card”, so the level of political leaders visiting Taiwan must be higher and higher. Moreover, judging from the past visits to Taiwan by U.S. lawmakers, the United States does not think it has caused any injuries to itself.
In order to hedge the influence of all parties, the United States is likely to adopt such a strategy: on the one hand, reduce the tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States, which can ease the economic relations between China and the United States to a certain extent; On the other hand, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan created a deteriorating situation in Sino US political relations for his allies.
For the United States, easing economic relations with China may make allies misunderstand that Sino US relations are improving, thus prompting the European Union to improve relations with China. On the contrary, if the United States is more tough on China politically, it can offset the political impact of the improvement of Sino US economic relations to a certain extent.
So, what is China’s attitude towards Pelosi’s plan to visit Taiwan? Foreign Ministry spokesperson zhaolijian made a clear and stern response to this at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on July 19.
Zhao Lijian said that China has repeatedly expressed its solemn position on this issue. China firmly opposes any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan. The US Congress is an integral part of the US government and should strictly abide by the one China policy pursued by the United States. If Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan, it will seriously violate the one China principle and the provisions of the three Sino US joint communiques, seriously damage China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, seriously impact the political foundation of Sino US relations, and send a serious wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces. China firmly opposes this.
The Chinese side requires the US side to abide by the one China principle and the provisions of the three Sino US joint communiques, not to arrange for Speaker Pelosi to visit Taiwan, stop official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, stop creating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and take practical actions to fulfill the US commitment not to support “Taiwan independence”. Zhao Lijian said that if the United States persists, China will take firm and effective measures to firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The US side must be fully responsible for all the consequences arising therefrom.
China’s attitude is very clear. The consequences of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will be very serious and will seriously impact the political foundation of China US relations. However, in fact, the United States does not necessarily take this serious impact on Sino US relations seriously, because the United States has been systematically deteriorating Sino US relations and actively promoting the new cold war. Imagine that the most important target of the new cold war is China. How can he care so much about deteriorating bilateral relations? What he cares about is whether the new cold war can finally be realized, so it must be a planned deterioration of relations with China. Therefore, judging from the current situation, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may still be postponed again, but there is a high probability that it will finally take place before the U.S. mid-term elections, or even in August, which is related to the election of the Democratic Party’s mid-term elections.
Then, if Pelosi did visit Taiwan, what would be the consequences? In Zhanhao’s view, the most direct consequences are four:
1? The political foundation of China US relations began to shake from the root
Pelosi is not an ordinary person, but a political leader of the U.S. government. Her status is very important. The political connotation of her visit to Taiwan is much deeper and the nature is much more serious than that of ordinary lawmakers. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan marks the official resumption of the official website of the United States and the Taiwan authorities, so its seriousness is much more serious than that of ordinary lawmakers. The United States certainly knows this.
For China, the political commitment of the United States on the Taiwan issue is the political basis of Sino US relations. If the United States wants to resume normal official exchanges with Taiwan, the political basis of Sino US relations will inevitably shake, and China will never allow the United States to maintain normal official relations with Taiwan. The political foundation of China US relations has been shaken, which will certainly urge China to consider the Taiwan issue more and more realistically in order to cope with the major impact of changes in US Taiwan Relations on the stability of the Taiwan Strait.
2? China will definitely directly sanction Pelosi and others
If Pelosi visits Taiwan, what measures can China take against the United States and Pelosi? It must be a series of sanctions, including personal sanctions against Pelosi and suspension of some exchanges with the US Congress. Predictably, this must be a serious blow to China US relations.
However, as long as Pelosi decides to go, it means that the U.S. government, Parliament and Pelosi herself will fully consider this point. Therefore, if Pelosi visits Taiwan, it must be a comprehensive evaluation of the results. It is by no means an impulse. We also firmly cannot regard this visit as a personal behavior. This is absolutely 100% official, and there is no flexibility.
3? The high-level political exchanges between China and the United States will suffer a major blow
Just a few days ago, U.S. officials released the news of the so-called meeting between China and the U.S. dollar, which China did not confirm. This time, the news shows that the United States must have mentioned the China US dollar summit, but China believes that the timing is inappropriate. The more direct reason is that the United States has not even lowered its tariffs. What is the significance and value of the Sino US dollar summit? At least for China, it has little practical value, so it is impossible for China to promote the meeting between the two heads of state under such circumstances.
Then, if Pelosi really visited Taiwan in August, the political foundation of China US relations will be shaken, and the atmosphere for the short-term meeting of the heads of state will disappear. At that time, even if the United States lowers tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States, there will be no atmosphere for the first meeting between China and the United States dollar.
4? The military confrontation between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait will become more intense
There is no doubt that if the political foundation of China US relations is shaken, it will eventually be reflected in the situation in the Taiwan Strait. In the current general environment, it will inevitably be reflected in military friction. There is no doubt that if Pelosi visits Taiwan, the PLA will exert greater pressure on the U.S. military, and the competition between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea will become more and more intense, and there may even be some situations close to wiping out the gun, or even major accidents.
For the risks in the Taiwan Strait, we should remain highly vigilant. If there is a major accident, we should have the ability to deal with it immediately and decisively. Especially for such a powerful opponent as the United States, there must be no procrastination.
The pressure of the situation is increasing, but the opportunities for us are also increasing. The pace of reunification of Taiwan is moving towards us!