Pessimists are always right!

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Source: Yuanfang, what do you think? Wechat id:yfooklook

“Can China achieve the GDP growth target of about 5.5% this year?”

In the face of the complex and severe internal and external environment in the past few months, economic development is facing new downward pressure. Today, the national development and Reform Commission gave the answer.

At the press conference held by the Central Propaganda Department today (June 28), Ou Hong, Deputy Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission, said:

Since March, the COVID-19 and the crisis in Ukraine have led to an increase in risks and challenges. The complexity, severity and uncertainty of China’s economic development environment have increased. Stabilizing growth, employment and prices are facing new challenges

What’s more, China’s economy is resilient, has sufficient potential and large room for manoeuvre. China is fully confident in overcoming difficulties and challenges in economic operation, and is capable of coping with all kinds of unexpected changes that may occur, so as to ensure stable, healthy and sustainable economic development.


Today, let’s talk: pessimists are always right

In fact, there were many disputes and doubts about the 5.5% GDP growth target this year at the beginning.

In this year’s government work report, the expected target of economic growth is “GDP growth of about 5.5%”. Once it was unveiled, it has attracted great attention at home and abroad.

We should know that at that time, the global epidemic was still at a high level, commodity prices fluctuated at a high level, the external environment became more complex, severe and uncertain, and domestic economic development faced triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations.

Under the complex situation, some foreign media believe that China’s economic growth target of about 5.5% has been set high, and China’s economic prospects are “not optimistic”.



Before long, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the epidemic situation in China appeared in some parts, the overall uncertainty increased, and there were more doubts in the world. At the same time, China has also responded positively. The meetings of the national Standing Committee on stabilizing the economy and promoting development have been one after another.

The first half of the year will pass soon. Can this goal really be achieved? In fact, the answer to the question does not need to look at today’s speech of the national development and Reform Commission. The more important statement has already been made a few days ago.

In the keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the BRICs business forum held two days ago, President Xi carefully analyzed how to effectively respond to various challenges in the face of the complex and severe domestic and international development environment under the interweaving of the world’s century changing situation and the century epidemic? President Xi Jinping provided a sincere “China plan”.

China will strengthen macro policy adjustment, take more effective measures, strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals, and minimize the impact of the epidemic.

This “striving to achieve the annual economic and social development goal” is actually a reaffirmation of the 5.5% economic growth rate.


Many people who are superstitious about “western economics”, especially those who are superstitious about “Chicago School of economics”, actually have a misunderstanding about many economic indicators.

The most misunderstood indicators are actually two: “US interest rate” and “China’s GDP”

According to the famous Chicago School of economics. They fully believe in economic liberalism and social Darwinism, believe in the role of competition mechanism in free market economy, believe in the self-regulation ability of market forces, and believe that market competition is a process in which market forces freely play their role.

In particular, it emphasizes individual freedom. When the state has to intervene in the economy, it emphasizes the “rule of law” and opposes the “rule of man”. It emphasizes the important function of the market mechanism of perfect competition in regulating the operation of capitalist economy, and the intervention of the state in economic life should be minimized.



According to the Chicago School of economics, it can not explain why American interest rates always rise when the United States needs to tighten and fall when the United States needs to release water. Is it true that US interest rates are the product of “free economy” and are not regulated by the state? Not to mention how the United States made the rise in interest rates accompany the tension in the world to hedge against the falling crisis of US stocks that rose after the outbreak.

Another thing they can’t understand is “China’s GDP”. Here, it doesn’t mean that China’s GDP is fake. Instead, they fail to understand the core reasons and logic behind GDP growth. In fact, it should be understood that GDP is only an indicator of wealth. It only shows how to get from one point to another, but it does not show how to get there.

There are many ways and tools to achieve GDP growth. The only difficulty is to make it grow healthily. Just like a person who wants to gain weight, it is easy to change from 160 kg to 180 kg, but whether the 20 kg is fat or muscle actually determines the person’s health and long-term sports performance in the future.

Today, China wants more healthy GDP than just larger GDP. A healthier GDP, like a healthier muscle, often needs to reject many temptations, because your body actually has a habit of hoarding fat, but you are not familiar with the plan of growing muscle and have to pay a lot of pain and sweat.

However, it is difficult to achieve this only by relying on the spontaneous market.


A pessimist is always right in the face of difficulties. Pessimists will find countless reasons to prove why this thing can not be done.

It is difficult to prove this. On the one hand, it is to find reasons for the lack of ability, determination and perseverance; On the other hand, I hope I can return to the path I used to. I can gain weight by eating and drinking, lying flat and fattening up instead of reasonable diet, and scientific exercise to increase muscle.


Pessimists are always right

Victory belongs to optimists

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