Poor performance in the Russian Ukrainian War: what play is the EU playing?

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Author: brother Mao, this article is reproduced under the authorization of the official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).


Von delaine

It seems that there is a hot issue recently. Is Europe aware that it was cheated by the United States in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? If you know, why do you want to build a fire with the United States?

There are many different answers to this question. Some of the answers are very open-minded, but they are not reliable after all.

To answer this question accurately, we must make clear the current situation in Europe. First, we invite European Commission President von delaine to take the stage.


Von delaine

Let me briefly introduce the resume of this eldest sister.

Von delaine was born in 1958 in Brussels, Belgium, to a German father. As a military fan who is familiar with Germany, when I saw the name of the eldest sister with a “Feng”, I knew that this woman had an unusual family background and probably was of noble origin.

Sure enough, von der lain’s father was not only the governor of Saxony, but also an official of the European Commission, the second generation of officials.

With his father’s connections paving the way, in 1999, at the age of 41, von delaine began his career in politics and soon became Merkel’s best friend. With the election of Angela Merkel as German chancellor in 2005, von der lain successively served as Minister of family affairs and youth and Minister of labor and social affairs. In 2013, with the support of Merkel, von der lain took the post of German Federal defense minister, becoming the first female defense minister in German history.

In his past political career, von der lain kept a low profile and his political inclination was moderate. As a mother of seven children, he had no black material to explode. Therefore, von der lain’s political career went smoothly.

It is also this style of von delaine that enables her to win from more than 20 candidates in the election of the new president of the European Commission in 2019. This victory is the result of the compromise of the interests of all parties in the EU. Even so, among the 751 members of Parliament, von der lain only got 383 support, only 9 more than the 374 votes required for the appointment and approval.

For the governing philosophy of the president of the European Commission, von der lain’s slogan is——

“I will protect the European way of life and promote European style democracy.”

Does it sound a little empty headed? But please remember this slogan, which will be mentioned later.

Von der lain is a little famous on Chinese social media recently. The main reason is that von der lain always makes some nonsense remarks recently.

For example, on March 28, von delaine personally called Putin to ask for the release of EU wheat ships. She stressed that it was inhuman to ban EU wheat ships. European people need food and bread. EU sanctions against Russia are for justice, which is different from wheat. Russia has no reason to ban wheat, which makes Europe face the crisis of famine. Russia must immediately correct this mistake.

For another example, in late May, von delaine publicly announced that the European Union bought Russian oil and gas to punish Russia, because if the European Union did not buy it, Russia would sell oil and gas to other sellers at a high price.

The above foreword is not consistent with the following words. As long as the IQ is slightly online, it is puzzling. Therefore, on Chinese social media, von delaine has fallen into a mediocre and stupid name.

We don’t care about mediocrity, but how can it be stupid to play the role of president of the European Commission?

So why would von drayn say such seemingly stupid things?


International Energy Market

Now let’s take a look at what happened to the international energy market after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war?

China was the first to appear.

During the trump administration, China and the United States signed a trade agreement. According to the Sino US trade agreement, the US energy giant has signed a 20-year permanent natural gas supply contract with China. The contract unit price is constant. The US side will continue to supply gas to China at the rate of USD 235 / thousand cubic meters. The US side is worried about China’s future reneging and has set an astronomical liquidated damages.

After the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the international natural gas price soared to 3500 US dollars / thousand cubic meters. Russian natural gas has been sanctioned by the West and can only be sold to us at a very low price according to the previous Sino Russian natural gas contract, which directly led to China’s import of Russian natural gas in March exceeding the share of last year.

In this case, China imports excess natural gas from the United States.

What should I do?

It can only sell us natural gas to the EU at a tearful price increase of ten times.

Because the contract price of natural gas between China and the United States is CIF, even the freight is saved. Only the Chinese side needs to give instructions, and the United States has to use its precious lucky boat to transport Chinese natural gas to Europe for sale.

A lucky ship can earn China hundreds of millions of dollars. After the war between Russia and Ukraine lasted more than a month, we sold dozens of ships of American natural gas to Europe. The profits we made were still more than enough to reimburse the cost of last year’s Chinese national vaccine.

Because the natural gas contracts signed by China and the United States take up a huge share of the United States’ natural gas, although the people who lack gas in the European Union are about to riot (Russia used to provide 150billion cubic meters to the European Union every year), the United States can only squeeze 15billion cubic meters of natural gas out to the European Union, and the rest of the United States’ natural gas shares can only be sold to China in tears, making China a soft touch as an intermediary.

The above words are quoted from my past articles. At that time, everyone said that they enjoyed it very much, but no one paid attention to one of the words – which directly led to China’s import of Russian natural gas in March exceeding the share of last year.

What does that mean?

Let’s take a look at the second India.

According to the data reported by Reuters on May 30, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, India has purchased 34million barrels of oil from Russia, and 24million barrels in May alone, 25 times the average monthly purchase of last year (960000 barrels).


(source: Beiwan online)

In addition, Reuters predicts that India will continue to increase Russian oil purchases in June, and is expected to purchase 28million barrels, 4million more than in May.

Why did India suddenly buy Russian oil?

First of all, India’s domestic demand for oil cannot suddenly soar dozens of times; Secondly, long-term supply agreements are generally required for national oil purchases. It is impossible to cut down most other oil import channels in a short time and significantly increase purchases from a country.

Therefore, India’s sudden increase in Russian oil imports by dozens of times is certainly not something that it can consume by itself.

Can’t be consumed or stored?

Neither can this one.

Oil storage requires special oil storage tanks and regular “venting”. The more “deflation” times, the lower the quality of oil – this is the fundamental reason why the strategic oil reserves of all countries can only be maintained for a few months at most.

Under the condition that India has not built large-scale oil storage facilities recently, the Russian oil imports increased by dozens of times will certainly be unable to be stored.

Unable to consume or store, where are these tens of millions of barrels of Russian oil?

The only logical explanation is that India sold the oil.

So, looking at the world, who will increase the price to buy Russian oil from India?

The answer is self-evident. The EU member states that can only impose sanctions but cannot buy Russian oil.

Now do you understand the meaning of this sentence? It directly led to China’s import of Russian natural gas in March exceeding the share of last year.

Please keep in mind that, like oil, China’s natural gas demand will not suddenly surge, nor will it suddenly build a large number of facilities to store natural gas, so you know.

You see, after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, not only the United States and a big country in the East were rolling European Union wool together, but India was also desperately rolling European Union wool.


Politically correct

Now let’s take a look at von drayn’s words – the EU buys Russian oil and gas to punish Russia, because if the EU does not buy it, Russia will sell oil and gas to other sellers at a high price.

Are you getting a little clearer?

What von der lain really wants to say is that if the EU sanctions do not buy Russian oil, it will be sold to the EU at a higher price (higher price) after other countries buy Russian oil – the last buyer corresponding to “Russia will sell oil and natural gas to other sellers at a higher price” is not others but the EU itself!

Do you still think von drayn is stupid?

In fact, people understand everything and have a clear mind.

So, why doesn’t von delaine express the above meaning directly and say something inexplicably stupid?

Because we should follow the principle of “political correctness”.

What is the “political correctness” of the EU?

Now we can take von drayn’s slogan – “I will protect the European way of life and promote European democracy.”

Democracy and freedom, which are somewhat hypocritical and empty slogans, are the political correctness of the EU.

So why did von drayn hold this plaque high and die?

Let’s look at another story.

Some time ago, the European Union sent two senior executives to Turkey. During the meeting, Turkmenistan only prepared two chairs. As a result, one of them had to sit on the sofa without a chair.

Guess who that man is? It’s US von drayn.


Meeting scenes (source: Xinhua News Agency)

There is something wrong with what Turkey did, but what is interesting is that Michelle (one of the two senior officials sent to Turkey) obviously accelerated when she saw the two chairs and sat down before van der lain. It is difficult not to doubt that this was intentional.

For Michelle, a veteran official in Brussels, if you are a German president in Brussels, can you still show your face? If Germany and France, a big European country, really have the absolute say in Brussels, will the bargaining power and influence of our small European countries be further compressed?

Therefore, it is just right to humiliate von delaine on such diplomatic occasions.

It is a bit embarrassing that Frederick von delaine, the president of the European Commission, has been reduced to no chair in diplomatic occasions.

In fact, it is not uncommon for the EU to be led astray by small internal countries in recent years. Because there are obvious road splits within the EU, including the conservative faction led by Hungary, the anti Russian faction led by the three small Baltic States, and the faction of Germany and France who want to take an independent line.

There are not only great differences in political lines, but also different demands on economic interests of EU Member States. Germany and France rely on the strong manufacturing industry to treat the backward Eastern European countries as dumping places for industrial products and suppliers of cheap labor, while the backward Eastern European countries hope to get more financial subsidies from Western Europe. Every year, EU member states can quarrel about these problems.

In the face of EU member states with huge differences in political and economic demands – well, EU member states in bulk, how can we build consensus and maintain a relatively bearable situation?

There is no way but to hold high the plaque of the values of democracy and freedom.

This is the governing slogan of von delaine – “I will protect the European way of life and promote European democracy.”

Because the principle of political correctness should be followed, von der lain can’t pierce the window paper that EU member states have to buy Russian oil and gas even if they raise prices – after all, this violates the principle of “democracy and freedom are above everything”. How can he bow to the “evil invader” Russia for oil and gas?

Similarly, because the principle of “political correctness” should be followed, von der lain called Putin to coordinate the release of EU ships transporting wheat. He also stressed that EU sanctions against Russia are for justice, which is different from wheat. Russia has no reason to ban wheat, which makes Europe face the crisis of famine.

Von delaine’s above remarks are not stupid, but helpless to carry the plaque of political correctness.

After all, democracy and freedom are the only “consensus” that the bulk EU can get on the table at present. If this “consensus” is discarded, the EU with constant internal friction may really disintegrate.


Consensus kidnaps EU

But every coin has two sides.

Democracy and freedom can certainly enable EU Member States to gather a “consensus” reluctantly. Similarly, the plaque of this “consensus” will also kidnap the EU.

After von delaine’s incoherent statement that the EU’s purchase of Russian oil and gas is to sanction Russia, driven by the anti Russian countries in Eastern Europe (the Baltic countries and Poland) and under the pressure of the plaque of political correctness, the EU is ready to adopt a new sanctions policy against Russia at the end of may. According to this sanctions policy, EU Member States will reduce Russia’s oil purchases by 90% before the end of this year.


(source: China Economic Net)

But the process of passing the sanctions was also full of twists and turns.

At first, when the anti Russian countries in Eastern Europe put forward the sanctions proposal in the European Union, Hungary was the first to oppose it. There were a lot of reasons for this, that is, Hungary, as a landlocked country without ports, could not get rid of its dependence on Russian oil (basically the case).

Then there was an uproar within the EU. Although it seems that only Hungary is openly opposed, Hungary is by no means alone in the fight. There are many EU Member States behind Hungary who silently support it, but it is not easy to openly oppose it for politically correct reasons.

After fierce bargaining, the proposal on sanctions against Russian oil has exempted Hungary – that is, Hungary can continue to import Russian oil without being restricted by the proposal.

On May 31, the European Union began to vote. At the last minute, another moth appeared. Hungary voted against it!

Hungary, what are you doing?

The reasons for Hungary’s opposition are wonderful, because a Russian religious figure has been sanctioned in the EU plan, and Hungary will never agree to the sanctions against this religious figure!

Anyone with a clear eye can see that Hungary is just deliberately picking fault. Therefore, several EU leaders urgently asked Hungary for coordination.

Finally, the EU compromised again, not only agreeing to exempt Hungary from continuing to import Russian oil, but also allowing Hungary to resell oil from Russia!

Hungary was satisfied with the benefits. On June 3, the EU finally passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, announcing that EU Member States (with the exception of Hungary) would reduce Russian oil imports by 90% by the end of 2022.

Maybe you don’t understand why the EU agreed to exempt Hungary. Why would it agree to allow Hungary to resell Russian oil? Isn’t it obvious that Hungary should be allowed to roll the wool of other EU Member States?

This is precisely the result of a series of interest exchanges!

Many EU member states are upset that the EU has exempted Hungary alone. Why can Hungary engage in specialization? Therefore, on the eve of the EU vote, he encouraged Hungary to continue to fight for the right to allow the resale of Russian oil – this “resale” finally means that Hungary collects a little toll and then transfers it to other EU Member States.

How can this price be lower than the real resale from the United States and a large country in the East (I mean India).

The most interesting thing is that after the EU sanctions plan was passed, US President Biden publicly praised the EU for making great sacrifices for “democracy and freedom” for the first time.

Then, the United States announced that Russia was allowed to sell oil, but it must be far below the market price.


(source: China Economic Net)

The United States has to see half of this statement and lose half.

It is true that Russia is allowed to sell oil, and the United States also hopes to make a profit, but the so-called “must be much lower than the market price” is enough for everyone to listen to, because it is impossible for Russia to follow the instructions of the United States.

Therefore, after the US made this statement, Russia immediately responded——


(source: World Wide Web)

Now we can summarize that after the implementation of the EU sanctions program, in addition to the United States and a large Eastern country (I mean India), Hungary will be added to the EU in the future.

After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the United States successively issued thousands of economic sanctions against Russia. What is the result? Russia is getting richer with sanctions.

On May 27, the Russian Ministry of Finance issued a statement that due to the rise in energy and food prices, Russia’s fiscal surplus from January to April exceeded 1.1 trillion rubles, equivalent to 98.5 billion US dollars, more than three times that of the same period last year, setting a new record for 28 years, of which the surplus in April alone was nearly 800billion rubles!

Another country that is getting richer and richer is the United States.

In late May, the U.S. Treasury also announced that in April 2022, the federal finance had a surplus of $3088billion, a record high, and revenue doubled year-on-year. This is the first time that the federal finance has had a fiscal surplus since 2019.

The wool from the European Union is really cool!


have the order reversed

Now the European Union makes me feel more and more familiar.

People familiar with history probably know that the most important regime in Chinese history is the Nanming regime.

At that time, the Nanming regime had a very strong resource endowment (the highest human and material resources in the world) and the people’s will (after all, the Ming Dynasty was known as “nurturing scholars for 300 years”). It had excellent congenital conditions, but it had no choice but to die.

On the one hand, there is constant internal strife, and on the other hand, there is a great deal of political correctness. At that time, after Li Zicheng’s Dashun army retreated from Beijing, there was almost no threat to Nanming. The greatest threat was the aggressive Manchu and Qing government that occupied Beijing.

However, because the Dashun army had a historical burden of conquering Beijing and forcing the former Emperor (Chongzhen) to die, it was regarded as the biggest enemy by the Nanming regime, which was full of political correctness.

At the beginning, Nanming sent people to negotiate peace with Manchu and prepared to jointly suppress the Dashun army. After being rejected by Manchu, they were careless and did not actively organize defense against Manchu. Finally, they were destroyed by Manchu and Qing army, so that a Han regime with a population of 200million was wiped out by a tribal regime with a population of more than one million in Eastern Liaoning. Reading history makes people sigh with regret.

How similar the EU is to the Nanming regime!

If we don’t talk about the internal friction disputes in advance, the external relations are also putting the cart before the horse. On the one hand, we regard Russia, which has no real threat, as a great enemy and engage in some politically correct sanctions (actually digging our own flesh); On the other hand, taking the United States as an ally with bad intentions and evil intentions, and watching the major powers publicly roll their wool but do nothing… How long can such an EU last in this era of great change that has not been seen in a century?


Deep changes in the world

Talk about the follow-up.

According to the current virtue of the EU, the relationship with Russia has almost completely broken. Even if Russia withdraws from Ukraine tomorrow, the EU will probably not lift most of the sanctions against Russia because it wants to maintain the plaque of political correctness.

The long-term deterioration of Russia Europe relations is a high probability event.

At least I like this situation.

On the one hand, Russia, with money in hand and calm in mind, has become more and more courageous in the Ukrainian battlefield and has achieved an overwhelming advantage.

Russia’s outstanding performance in the eastern Ukraine battlefield has greatly reduced our external pressure.

On May 5, when the situation in Russia and Ukraine was in a state of anxiety, the US State Department website updated and revised the “fact list of us Taiwan Relations”.

In this regard, zhaolijian, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs of the people’s Republic of China, solemnly refuted the US side’s small move of hollowing out the one China principle.

However, because Russia has recently gradually taken the initiative in the war on the eastern Ukrainian battlefield, and has gained the momentum to win the war, the United States now has to consider the issue of getting away from Ukraine in the future. It is unwise to sharply oppose China on the Taiwan Strait issue at this time.

The world is like a interlocking domino. The better Russia plays in Wudong, the less the United States dare to turn against China in the Taiwan Strait.

On the other hand, because of the break with Europe and the United States, Russia had to move closer to a big power in the East. At the end of May, another big news broke out in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia – the president of that country told the media that because Russia no longer objects, the construction of the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway, which has been discussed for more than 20 years, will start next year!

Here is a brief introduction to the background. In the past, Russia has always regarded Central Asia as a forbidden area, so it is very afraid of China’s the Belt and Road initiative in Central Asia. Therefore, this vital China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway has been unable to start construction because of Russia.

Note: Russia has troops stationed in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which has the ability to control Kyrgyzstan’s politics. If Russia does not nod, Kyrgyzstan will not be able to cooperate with China.

In addition, Kyrgyzstan used to charge a high price for this railway. For example, the railway has to make a big circle in the country (equivalent to helping them build a national railway network), use the track standard of the former Soviet Union, etc. naturally, China will not do this injustice.

However, the situation is stronger than others. After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia faced unprecedented pressure from the western world, and its ability to control central Asia naturally declined. Kyrgyzstan also has no capital to find a way between China and Russia, and can only rely on China.

Therefore, after the Kyrgyz President lobbied Putin again on May 17, Putin was forced by the political commitment of the Sino Russian joint statement to give his consent.

According to: there is a paragraph in the Sino Russian joint statement: “the two sides will actively promote the docking cooperation between the joint construction of the the Belt and Road” and the Eurasian Economic Union, and deepen practical cooperation between China and the Eurasian Economic Union in various fields

What is the significance of the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway?

After the completion of this railway, it will be the shortest route for China to transport goods to Europe and the Middle East,

The freight route will be shortened by 900 kilometers, saving 7-8 days.

In short, it can save money and time for China EU cargo transportation. In a deeper sense, it can greatly promote the economic prosperity along the line and make our operation in Central Asia even more powerful.


China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway Line

This is the proof that after the Sino Russian joint statement and the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, I wrote an article pointing out that the “belt and road” front of our the Belt and Road has been unimpeded!

It can be predicted that in the future, if the EU and Russia are opposed for a long time, it will be more beneficial for China to operate Central Asia.

Therefore, if the EU wants to make a variety of tricks and hold high the plaque of political correctness, it will be difficult for it to make a truly pragmatic and effective decision. In this great change that has not been seen in a century, the EU as a whole can only be a pawn, not a player in the chess game.

This article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).

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