Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
The former Soviet Union has become history. Where is the future of the post Soviet Union?
On July 1, the 9th Russia Belarus forum kicked off in Grodno, a city in Western Belarus. Although the melon eating community in the global village did not pay much attention to this, it is actually quite important.
After all, now Russia is wrestling with the whole west, and Russia’s real ally is only Belarus. Therefore, the Russia Belarus alliance is essentially the basis for the confrontation between Russia and the West.
So at this forum, Putin and kalushenko both delivered speeches and delivered extraordinary news.
Putin said: at present, Russia and Belarus are facing collective political and economic sanctions from western countries, which will accelerate the integration process of Russia and Belarus. After all, only by uniting together, it is easier to minimize the damage of illegal sanctions, stimulate demand and improve competitiveness.
The message of this statement:
1. Russia and Belarus are in a bad situation and need to stay together in the face of Western sanctions.
——This is no problem in itself, because it is the status quo.
2. Accelerate the process of Russia Belarus integration.
——This makes the melon eaters wonder how to speed up the integration of the Russian White alliance?
If we continue to accelerate, it is easy to think that both sides will return to the same alliance. The full name of the Soviet Union is the union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Lukashenko said more directly about the logic of building a “post Soviet Union” at the Russia Belarus forum, “if post Soviet countries want to maintain sovereignty, they should move closer to the countries of the Russia Belarus alliance in order to meet global challenges, otherwise, ‘we may not be here tomorrow’.”
——It is equivalent to the Ming saying that we should engage in “post Soviet Union”.
Since Putin and Lukashenko want to engage in “post Soviet”, what will be the impact?
Impact 1, Ukraine
This means that the Ukrainian territory captured by Russia through war will probably not spit out; They also want to annex more Ukrainian territory.
The basic plate of the Soviet Union is Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, with the East Slavs as the main body.
If Russia kills Ukraine and supports a pro Russian regime, and Russia, Ukraine and Belarus re form an alliance, it is equivalent to rebuilding the basic plate of the “post Soviet Union”.
However, it is obvious that Russia can’t handle the whole Ukraine at this stage; Then second, Russia will try to seize the most essence of Ukraine, namely, the land of eastern Ukraine and the coastal resources of southern Ukraine
Band; Then form a so-called new country and join the so-called Russian White alliance, which is also a simple “post Soviet team”.
Therefore, according to this logic, the Ukrainian war must be a long-term tug of war.
But then again, Ukraine is now rotten like this, and it doesn’t care about the tug of war. Moreover, Ukraine is now turning the war into a business of “asking for assistance from the west”. The longer it fights, the more assistance it can ask for from the West.
Influence 2, Belarus
Since the Russia Belarus alliance should continue to strengthen, that is, the so-called integration should continue; This process is bound not to be equal, because the so-called Russian White integration process is probably the process of Belarus’ integration into Russia.
So what does Russia need to do?
First, appease ordinary people in Belarus.
Both Belarus and Russia are East Slavic ladies. Unlike Ukraine, Belarus has no strong inclination towards the West.
For ordinary people in Belarus, living a better life is the key. Russia wants to win the favor of the ordinary people of Belarus. The main chips are only cheap energy and resources, and of course, a large amount of ruble assistance.
Second, appease Lukashenko and his son.
Lukashenko ruled Belarus longer than Putin ruled Russia. Kalushenko’s greatest wish is to let his son take over and continue to rule Belarus.
In fact, the countries split from the former Soviet Union are basically ruled by political strongmen. In addition to Belarus and Russia, Turkmenistan has completed the transfer of power between father and son (it is estimated that Lukashenko is regarded as an example); The former presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have worked for decades.
If Russia wants to continue to deeply integrate Belarus, it must keep the power inheritance of Lukashenko and his son. It would be difficult to play like this in peacetime. But in turbulent war years, the difficulty of playing like this will be greatly reduced.
Impact 3, Eastern European direction
At this stage, the situation of Russia is not ideal. Because Eastern European countries such as Poland and Lithuania are constantly testing Russia’s bottom line, Lithuania even blockaded the Russian enclave Kaliningrad.
Russia wants to deal directly with Poland and Lithuania. However, separated by Belarus, it is willing but insufficient. If Belarus further integrates into Russia, it can directly deter Lithuania, Poland and other anti Russian pioneers.
From another perspective, Lithuania, Poland and other countries are both anti Russia and anti Belarus. So they are also a threat to Belarus. Russia can take advantage of the external threats of Lithuania, Poland and other countries to join the deep integration of Russia and Belarus.
Once Russia integrates Belarus, there will be no buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Once there is a conflict, it is basically a war.
So from another perspective, another goal of Russia’s integration with Belarus is to prepare for the war.
This is an extremely dangerous signal, but Russia will do it unscrupulously.
Impact 4. Kazakhstan
In fact, one of the most flustered countries since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war is Kazakhstan.
Kazakh President Tokaev, in front of Putin in St. Petersburg, said that he would not recognize the independence of East Ukraine. Many gourmet people in the public opinion circles praised Tokayev for being tough, but in fact he was very flustered.
Because the situation in Kazakhstan is similar to that in Ukraine.
First, the territory in Northern Kazakhstan is also “donated” by the former Soviet Union, where there are also many Russians. If Russia is willing, it can also conduct a similar “special military operation”.
Second, Russia launched the Ukrainian war, with the main goal of the resource belt around the Black Sea. It was one of the core assets lost in the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Another core asset lost in the disintegration of the Soviet Union is the Caspian energy belt. Some melon eaters may not be impressed by this concept. Here is a brief introduction: the Middle East actually has two energy bases, the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea.
What we usually call the Middle East energy base mainly refers to the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia and other kingdoms are on the south bank, and Iran is on the north bank.
Caspian energy base is mainly the oil fields of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. These are the core assets of the former Soviet Union. Among these countries, Kazakhstan is the most vulnerable.
So Kazakhstan is in a panic.
Since Putin and Lukashenko want to build a “post Soviet Union”, it means that they will not stop in a short time. If one direction fails to meet expectations, it is bound to continue in another direction.
The reason is very simple. This model is the specialty of the political strongmen of East Slav.