Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
In the Quaker world, Putin is often called the great emperor and Erdogan the Sudan.
01 master playing cards
In essence, Putin has more power in Russia than most czars, and Erdogan has more influence on Turkey than most Sudan. Both of them are experts in the international game field.
Why do they become friends again? The reason is simple. They often become enemies.
Historically, the Sudan and the Czar have also often become enemies. For example, in the 10 Russian Turkish wars in history, the Sudan and the Czar were fighting each other.
Putin and Erdogan, as the successors of the Czar and the Sudan, were originally locked in a bitter struggle. The most typical example is that in 2015, Turkey shot down Russian warplanes in Syria.
Everyone knows that Russia is hard to mess with. What kind of bear heart and leopard courage did Turkey dare to engage in Russian warplanes? The reason is actually very simple: at that time, Turkey dreamed of joining the European Union’s rich circle of friends, trying to show its own value to the west by being tough with Russia as a chip for joining the European Union. At that time, Erdogan was very attracted to the West.
The Turkish shooting down of a Russian fighter plane caused a great uproar at that time, and both sides had a strong intention to fight it out.
Fortunately, at the critical moment, Putin resisted the impulse.
Mr Erdogan soon regretted being too dependent on the West.
On the one hand, Erdogan did not get a ticket to join the EU. On the contrary, he was unhappy with the EU because of the Syrian refugee problem. The two sides fought for hundreds of rounds.
On the other hand, the West stabbed Erdogan in the back. In july2016, Erdogan suffered a military coup, behind which there was the shadow of the United States. It is said that Erdogan escaped because Putin provided information at a critical moment.
Since then, the relationship between Erdogan and Putin has improved a lot. However, due to the feud between Russia and Turkey and the entanglement of real interests, the relationship between the two often lingers between enemies and friends.
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, the West made the two “friendly”.
On May 12, Russia announced a list of 52 “friendly countries”: most of them are countries in the third world of Asia, Africa and Latin America; There are only four European countries on the list, one of which is
Many gourd eaters expressed their puzzlement:
1. Turkey and Russia are feuds and will never be friendly.
2. There are many disputes between Turkey and Russia, which will never be peaceful.
3. In the Russo Ukrainian war, Turkey did not stand by Russia, and morally inclined to Ukraine.
4. Turkey is a member of NATO.
So why does Russia list Turkey as a friendly country?
The answer is simple: Erdogan and Putin are both masters of the international game.
It’s very interesting for experts to fight.
02 Turkish move
Turkey under Erdogan:
1. Although it is a member of NATO, it did not follow the Western sanctions against Russia.
2. Although there are historical and realistic disputes with Russia, this sentiment has not been brought into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
3. Although he has always supported Ukraine morally, he has found a win-win way with Russia in reality.
So how did Turkey do this?
First, Erdogan set up checkpoints for Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
Because according to the rules of the game, if new members want to join NATO, they must obtain the consent of all former NATO members.
Erdogan made full use of this rule and said that as long as the United States, Sweden and Finland did not agree with Turkey’s conditions, he would not agree with Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
It has been analyzed in previous articles. Erdogan’s action seems to be against the west, but in fact it has avoided the situation between the West and Russia from deteriorating to an irreparable extent; It is in the interests of both Russia and Europe.
For this reason alone, Turkey deserves Russia a “friendly country” ticket.
Secondly, the Turkish Foreign Ministry clearly declared that we will not participate in the sanctions against Russia, nor will we allow any country to impose sanctions through Turkey. To the effect that it means neutrality.
In order to express its determination to be neutral, the Turkish foreign ministry also announced that in view of the provisions of the Montreux Convention on the prohibition of warships from entering the Mediterranean Sea, Turkey has cancelled and postponed a series of NATO military exercises.
According to Turkey, “we have played a mediating role (in the Russia Ukraine conflict). Everyone encourages this role. We have postponed or cancelled some NATO exercises planned earlier, that is to say, we have played an important role.”
Turkey’s goal is to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. The reason is also very simple. This role has benefited a lot at this stage.
Turkey wants to be a mediator, and Russia and Ukraine have no objection.
Feedback from Ukraine:
On June 30, Zelensky and Erdogan called to discuss Ukraine’s grain export by sea and other issues.
Erdogan said that Turkey attaches importance to the project of establishing a safe corridor for the maritime export of Ukrainian agricultural products, and Turkey is willing to make every effort to promote the continuation of Ukrainian Russian negotiations.
Feedback from Russia:
According to the central news media, on May 31, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will lead a delegation to Turkey on June 8 to discuss the opening of a security corridor in the Black Sea.
Focus on the development of the black sea security corridor.
Why do you say that? The Ukrainian war led to sharp fluctuations in world energy, resources and food prices. The sharp rise in natural gas prices some time ago is a typical example.
More critical than natural gas is food.
The black land of Ukraine is known as the granary of Europe. Major European countries, even Africa, need to buy food from Ukraine and then go by black sea.
After the war broke out, the ports along the Black Sea were basically destroyed.
On the one hand, Ukraine deployed a large number of mines along the coast in order to block the Russian army.
On the other hand, Russia blocked part of the black sea route and used it as a bargaining chip to negotiate with the West.
Now the Ukrainian war has led to a food crisis in Europe and Africa. Not long ago, the Secretary General of the United Nations called for:
Russia liberalizes Ukraine’s grain exports;
Russian food and fertilizer “must also have full and unrestricted access to the world market.”
In other words, the food crisis in Europe and Africa must be solved. Grain can be transported from the Black Sea through the Turkish Strait, so both Russia and Ukraine buy Turkey’s account.
Erdogan proposed that Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations jointly establish a “control center” for the situation in Ukraine, headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
In short, Ukrainian grain needs to be transported through Turkey. As Russia and the west do not trust each other, even if the United Nations comes forward, Turkey is also needed as a transit point.
Turkey’s income is to make a difference as a middleman.
04 the middleman is great
This includes not only food, but also various energy and resources.
Take steel as an example. Theoretically, the war had a great impact on the steel market in Europe:
On the one hand, the West stopped importing Russian steel products;
On the other hand, the battlefield is mainly concentrated along the Black Sea and the Azov Sea, where 80% of Ukraine’s steel production capacity is concentrated. The worst part of the war was the Mariupol steel plant.
It is reasonable to say that international steel prices should rise.
However, since the middle of April, the international steel prices have fallen sharply.
The reason for this is that Turkey imports scrap steel and billets from Russia at a low price, and then exports them to Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.
In this way, it not only solved the needs of Europe, but also eased the plight of Russia, and earned a lot of money.
Take natural gas as an example.
After the outbreak of the war, the direct gas supply from Russia’s north line to Europe decreased significantly, resulting in a shortage of natural gas in Europe.
However, the gas supply from the southern route to Turkey through the Black Sea is increasing, so the surplus natural gas of Turkey can be supplied to Europe. In this way, Turkey makes a lot of money as a middleman.
All these are the benefits that Turkey obtains as an intermediary.
As Turkey has tasted the sweetness of being a middleman, it is more eager to play the role of mediator. If we take the cake of grain transported from Ukraine and Russia to Europe, we can make a safe profit.
Turkey, as a middleman, not only made money, but also improved its status in Europe. Think about it. If the food, resources and energy of the East need to be transferred from Turkey because of the war, it is not just a matter of money, but it is useful for both China and the West.
For the west, it must obtain resources, energy and food from the east from Turkey. Therefore, Turkey has been relatively tough recently, rejecting Finland and Sweden to join NATO without ambiguity.
For Russia, it must obtain funds from the West from Turkey. Therefore, although Putin did not like Turkey, he also included Turkey in the list of “friendly countries”.
After World War II, Turkey had never felt so important. Suddenly, there was a feeling of the reappearance of the Ottoman Empire. For Erdogan, there may really be a feeling of Sudan.