Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668
Judging from the current situation, the Russian Ukrainian war is unlikely to end in the short term, and the war will last for a long time. There are two fundamental reasons for this judgment:
The first reason: Russia will not give up its strategic goals
Russia will never give up the goal it wants to achieve, nor will it give up the “meat” in its mouth. Now that he occupies the territory of Ukraine, he will never retreat, and will certainly seek to occupy the entire southern Ukrainian sea port. His goal of “demilitarization” and “Nazism” of Ukraine can not be abandoned in the medium term at least, which is determined by his national security strategy. Looking at Russia’s current posture, the number of contracted troops in future operations will directly expand from 400000 to more than one million. All these are Putin’s preparations for a big war and a long-term war.
The second reason: the strategic goal of the United States in the “new cold war” has not changed
The United States must continue to promote the confrontation between Russia and Europe, further enhance Europe’s dependence on the United States, and make preparations for the “new cold war” by promoting the alliance of Europe and other allies against China. Now, he is far from achieving this goal. How can he give up?
Therefore, it is bound to increase military assistance to Ukraine next. The United States now hopes to further drag Russia into the Ukrainian battlefield and further weaken Russia’s strength. The United States will never give up.
The essence of the Russian Ukrainian war is a proxy war between Russia and the United States in this “world of great struggle”. How can the war be ended when neither the United States nor Russia wants to end it?
In fact, the long-term Russian Ukrainian war will be part of the great changes in the world in the next century. With the gradual clarification of the world’s geopolitical situation, the further compromise of the interests of the “world of great struggle” and the further establishment of rules, the war can be truly ended. Objectively speaking, the Russian Ukrainian war is a symbolic event of the opening of the “world of great disputes”.
It is also on this basis that Putin is ready to expand the military and accelerate the preparation for war on a larger scale. The first step is to expand the army by nearly 140000, and the future expansion will be as high as about 500000. Moreover, after signing the military expansion order, Putin began to attack from three sides:
First strike: cut off natural gas in Europe
Perhaps nobody expected that Russia would cut off the “beixi-1” natural gas pipeline before Poland threatened to cut off Germany’s gas supply. On September 2, local time, Gazprom announced that during the maintenance of the turbine of the “portovaya” compressor station with representatives of Siemens, many equipment leaks were found, and the “beixi-1” natural gas pipeline will completely stop gas transmission until the fault is eliminated.
The fault probably exists objectively, but if it is not for the comprehensive blockade and sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia, Russia is unlikely to respond by cutting off its gas. The United States and the West are not only studying how to reduce the import of Russian gas, but also trying to limit the price of Russian energy output. Of course, Putin did not do it, so he cut off the gas in advance.
Just imagine that Russia, instead of being subject to energy price restrictions by the United States and the west, might as well attack Europe first. Such a gas cut-off will certainly continue to push up the price of natural gas and oil in Europe. Russia will not only not lose money but also make more money. Russia is obviously forced to fight an energy war with the United States and the West.
For the United States, this is certainly a good thing. The United States can also buy Russian oil and gas and sell it to Europe to make money. What’s wrong with that? However, in this Council, Europe is a fool. If it is allowed to operate in this way, will inflation not go up to heaven?
Unsurprisingly, France and Germany also felt the danger, so they demanded the resumption of dialogue with Russia. However, it is paradoxical that France and Germany want to communicate with Russia in order to make Russia accept the non discriminatory demands of the West. According to this posture, how will Europe spend this winter? In particular, if it encounters extremely cold weather, European society may erupt into chaos.
Russia will not be fooled by Germany and France. Russia wants Germany to restart the “beixi-2” natural gas pipeline. Moreover, Russia has made it clear that it will not export oil and natural gas to countries that impose price limits.
The energy war has begun, and Russia is taking the lead! It can be predicted that China will be the beneficiary and the EU the biggest victim of this contest. The big deal is that Russia sells oil and natural gas to China and India at a discount, and the United States acts as a middleman! Only Europe, like a fool, lost everything!
In fact, this process is the process of the United States eating europe economically. The dollar soared, and the United States bought cheap goods all over the world. Europe was miserable, and the euro also fell in a mess!
Second strike: stepping up military action against Ukraine
Recently, Russia has significantly strengthened its military action against Ukraine. This action is not a rapid advance, but a wait-and-see, because Ukraine is carrying out the so-called counter offensive in a mock manner. Since the United States has provided great assistance to Ukraine, the Zelensky government must honor the major counterattack it said for several months, so we saw that the Ukrainian army assembled tens of thousands of people to attack the Russian army. However, the actual situation is that the Russian army’s combat efficiency against the Ukrainian army is higher than that of the attack, and it basically eliminated all the Ukrainian army that attacked first. According to media reports, in the so-called counter offensive of the Ukrainian army at the end of August alone, the Russian army destroyed more than 1000 Ukrainian troops.
Moreover, Putin’s attitude is becoming clearer. According to the report of Russian media quoted by Xinhua news agency, Putin said in an open class in Kaliningrad on September 1 that an anti Russian enclave was forming on Ukraine’s territory, which was a threat to Russia’s national security. “Eliminating it is a special military action goal to protect Donbass.”. Putin also said that the Russian servicemen participating in this special military operation are not only protecting the residents of Donbass, but also defending Russia itself. “There is no doubt that this should be supported by the whole society, which is very important.”.
Putin’s position is very clear. Some time ago, the argument that Russia could not hold out and would withdraw its troops was just wishful thinking by some people. The goal of Russia’s military action in Ukraine has not changed. Moreover, now Russia’s goal is very clear, that is, to eliminate the anti Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine.
In fact, just as Zhan Hao analyzed before, how can Putin easily admit that in this “world of great controversy”? Even, Russia has not yet sought China’s help. How can some people think that Russia can’t hold on? In fact, these remarks are not worth refuting.
In fact, most people do not fully understand the Russian Ukrainian war, that is, they do not have a deep understanding of the “world of great struggle”. The Russian Ukrainian war is a landmark event that opened the world of great controversy. We need to deeply understand it in order to further understand the underlying operating logic of the world and even our micro society in the future.
Third strike: Putin visits Kaliningrad to put pressure on Europe and NATO
Putin has just done a big thing, visiting Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave in the Baltic Sea, at the most sensitive moment. As you can see from the figure below, Kaliningrad is the yellow “enclave” in the middle. This enclave is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, and separated from Russia by Belarus.
Poland and Lithuania were very nervous about Putin’s visit to Kaliningrad. Moreover, Putin talked about the Russian Ukrainian war in Kaliningrad and made it clear that he wanted to eliminate the anti Russian forces on Ukrainian territory. Deliberately going to Kaliningrad to eliminate the anti Russian forces in Ukraine is knocking on the mountain and shaking the tiger. Against this background, it is understandable that Poland and Lithuania are very nervous.
In fact, just last month, the Russian Ministry of defense has made it clear that as part of the “additional measures of strategic deterrence”, three MiG-31 fighters carrying “dagger” hypersonic missiles have been deployed to Kaliningrad and have entered an all-weather combat duty state. Obviously, this is a deterrent to other NATO members, because dagger hypersonic missiles can cover the whole of Europe in Kaliningrad.
The associated press said that Kaliningrad’s geographical location makes it a forward position for Moscow to fight back against NATO. On August 31, the inspector general of the German Bundeswehr, Zorn, also warned in particular that Moscow’s military strength must not be underestimated. Russia has “space to open up a second front” and “Kaliningrad is a potential hotspot”.
Why does the German Bundeswehr inspector general say that Russia has “the space to open up a second front”? In fact, the reason is very simple. When necessary, Russia is preparing for direct combat with NATO. Because, only when the mentality is opened up can Russia be more open in Ukraine.
Imagine that Russia has not sent out its air force on a large scale? Isn’t it because we want to guard against NATO? Once NATO moves, Russia may send its troops to Belarus and confront NATO directly in Belarus. Once the Russian army arrives in Belarus, once the war expands, Russia will need a port in the Baltic Sea very much. At that time, neither Poland nor Lithuania can stop the Russian army from opening up the land passage from Belarus to Kaliningrad. Putin’s visit to Kaliningrad, to a large extent, is to release such a political signal and knock on the tiger in Europe.
This is really a “world of great struggle”. The Russian Ukrainian war is already showing signs of spillover. If Europe does not do well, a wider war may come. This is the reality. In particular, Poland has always been ready to move towards western Ukraine, so Russia is likely to deploy in Belarus and Kaliningrad in advance, ready to steal Poland’s backyard at any time to deter Poland.
Seeing such a situation, how can Europe not be plucked? Does anyone in Europe have a deep understanding of the “world of great controversy”? It even lacks strategic thinking based on itself, so inflation in the United States may come down, but inflation in Europe may go up but not down, which is really miserable!