Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668
Is the Russian army really dead?
Recently, the western and social media have been singing down the Russian army. Many people think that the Russian army is no longer working, the war in Ukraine is going to fail, and even all kinds of voices that the Russian army is going to retreat and Russia is further disintegrating have come. The most optimistic voice is that Russia will stop the war if it can stabilize the occupied land or further control the Black Sea coast and eastern Ukraine.
However, Zhanhao does not think so. Here are three judgments for your reference:
First judgment: the war is not over so soon
At the beginning of the Russian Ukrainian war, Putin was indeed a “whale swallow” strategy, trying to win the war by quickly occupying Kiev. In this way, the war cost was small, the political benefits were large, and the speed was fast. However, the “self inflicted” response after the war in Ukraine was very effective. Because the Ukrainian army was well versed in the Russian army’s tactics, it directly blew up the runway and infrastructure of Kiev airport in the early stage of the war, which made Russia lose the ability of large-scale delivery from the Russian mainland to the vicinity of Kiev, and also completely destroyed Russia’s plan of quick war and quick decision. At the same time, since more than 100000 elite Ukrainian troops are in the eastern part of Ukraine, the armed forces of Donetsk and Lugansk cannot defeat the local Ukrainian troops, and the fighting is also obviously hindered.
One month later, Putin changed his war strategy and changed the strategy of “whale swallowing” to the strategy of “nibbling”. More than 100000 Russian troops turned around and began to attack eastern Ukraine, and achieved a lot of results in more than a month.
However, as Russia continues to push westward, relying solely on Russia’s strength, the consumption of Russian military power is huge. Therefore, under the deteriorating trend of Sino US relations, Putin chose to wait and see, and also wanted to digest the occupied areas.
Facts proved that this was still not possible, so the Russian army began to accelerate its attack again. The war in the past six months shows that Russia’s war in Ukraine is indeed not easy. Under such circumstances, Russia will certainly keep weighing, which means that the war will not end soon.
Obviously, this war is not over when Russia unilaterally says it is over, because neither Ukraine nor the West will easily accept Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory, let alone Russia’s political goals.
In fact, the other side of this proxy war is the United States. From the perspective of the United States, at least for now, it still needs to contain Russia. On the one hand, it is the political need of the United States to plunge Russia into the mire of war, and on the other hand, it is also the need of the United States to create a Russian European crisis to continue to control Europe.
How could it be that the political objectives of both sides have not been achieved, and the war has not been fought to the point of immobility? Objectively speaking, Russia’s combat power was overestimated to a certain extent, so the war will not end in the short term.
Second judgment: Russia will not give up its political goals
What is the purpose of Russia’s special military action in Ukraine? At the beginning of the war, Russia had already announced “demilitarization” and “de Nazism” in a high-profile manner.
Why “demilitarization”? Because Ukraine wants to join NATO, Russia must stop it now. Otherwise, Russia will have only two ways to fight directly with NATO, or internal conflicts will break out and further disintegrate. Russia does not want to choose either way, so Putin will take advantage of his youth to disarm Ukraine and let Ukraine enter the “neutrality” under Russian control. Now, has the demilitarization of Ukraine been completed? Of course not! Not only that, the United States and the West continue to strengthen their assistance, and Ukrainian shells have hit the Russian mainland. Under such circumstances, as long as Russia stops attacking, Ukraine will still seek to join NATO, even if half of Ukraine remains.
Therefore, theoretically speaking, at least from the current geopolitical situation, Russia will not stop until it completes the “demilitarization” of Ukraine. Of course, if NATO disintegrates in the future, Russia will not have such a big threat and may stop, but it is far from enough now.
Why “de Nazism”? Because of the genocide of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, Russia has found two mass graves in eastern Ukraine. In fact, even now, the Ukrainian high-level still claims to kill more Russians. Just a few days ago, the Ukrainian ambassador to Kazakhstan also publicly announced that he wanted to kill more Russians, which was publicly criticized and strongly opposed by the Kazakh government. For Russia, failure to complete the “de nazization” of Ukraine means that Ukraine’s Pro Western elites will engage in Russia for a long time and become a long-term trouble for Russia.
Now, against the background that the Ukrainian government still wants to kill more Russians, how can the war end?
The third judgment: next is a new round of fierce competition
What you can’t get on the battlefield is definitely not available at the negotiation table. For Russia, it is still far from its political goals; For Ukraine, Zelensky also refused to negotiate with Russia and demanded that Russia withdraw from Ukrainian territory. In this stalemate, we must still see the truth on the battlefield.
As far as Russia is concerned, if it cannot continue to move forward on the battlefield, it will be embarrassing and the losses will be relatively large. Therefore, Putin has no choice but to step up efforts to move westward and achieve greater results. This is the only way.
As far as Ukraine is concerned, it can only continue to ask the West for assistance to fight. This is also Zelensky’s mission and the mission entrusted to him by the United States.
According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), a new round of competition has begun. In this round of competition, the Russian army must continue to advance westward and must achieve new results, otherwise the losses may be even greater. Putin has no more choice.
The above three judgments can also be fully verified by two other news stories:
First news: Putin orders more troops
According to CCTV news, Russian President Putin signed a decree on August 25 local time, increasing the number of Russian armed forces by 137000 to 1.15 million.
Why increase the number of armed forces personnel? In fact, the reason is very simple. After the war between Russia and Ukraine has been fought for half a year, it has been proved that the number of Russian soldiers is not enough, so it is not difficult to understand that Putin ordered more troops. It can be predicted that Russia will further increase its troops in the future, because if Putin wants to win more in this round of competition, he must be prepared to face NATO. To face NATO, Russia will have to increase its troops by at least 4.5 million or more.
Considering that Russia is in great need of experienced military personnel, Russia is likely to absorb Russian veterans on a large scale to rapidly expand its ranks. Of course, Russia has actually done this before, but it will be more open in the future.
Second news: Medvedev gave two predictions on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
According to the global network comprehensive Russian media report, Medvedev, vice president of the Russian Federation Security Council, sent a message on the social platform telegram on the 25th, giving two predictions on how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will end, including the realization of all the objectives of the Russian special military action and the recognition of the results of the Russian special military action after the “military coup” in Ukraine. Medvedev first mentioned in the telegram that day that all analysts are trying to predict the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The guardian recently gave five predictions. Ukraine and some western countries with ties with Ukraine are making predictions about victory.
It can be seen from the above reports that all parties are trying to influence the results of the Russian Ukrainian war through public opinion guidance, to a certain extent, to shake Russia’s will to take special military actions in Ukraine. However, Medvedev gave two results. He wrote: “the first is that all the objectives of the special military operation (Russian side) have been achieved, and Kiev explicitly recognizes the results of the special military operation. The second is that Ukraine has a military coup and then recognizes the results of the special military operation. That is all options.”
These two conclusions of Medvedev confirm that the objectives of “demilitarization” and “de Nazism” of Russia’s special military action against Ukraine will not change. This is also an announcement that Russia’s military action against Ukraine will continue until the political objectives are achieved. Of course, Russia is also hinting that if there is a military coup in Ukraine, then “demilitarization” and “de Nazism” according to Russia’s will, and then amend the constitution to ensure that Ukraine does not join NATO, the Russian Ukrainian war will end.
To sum up, we can see that neither Russia nor the West intends to retreat, so the war is bound to continue! What’s more, China has always been neutral since the war between Russia and Ukraine. This also shows that the game between big powers is the middle ground, and it is still a long way off! Under such circumstances, how can the war stop?