This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
Putin has won another crucial victory.
The Ukrainian side acknowledged that the Russian and Ukrainian forces have fought for Northern Donetsk for several months and are now “completely under Russian occupation”.
The Uzbek military has ordered the withdrawal of the last group of troops defending the city. The reason for the withdrawal is that it is meaningless for the Ukrainian army to stick to it. “The death toll in the unguarded areas may be increasing every day.”.
According to the Ukrainian army, Russia has bombarded the city with artillery nonstop. “All the infrastructure of the city has been completely destroyed, and more than 90% of the houses have been burned down…”
Northern Donetsk is the last major stronghold of the Ukrainian army in Lugansk. With the Ukrainian army taking the initiative to withdraw, Lugansk has been almost completely under the control of the Russian army.
According to CNN, in the past week, Ukraine experienced the worst week since the fall of Mariupol. Putin took down the city he had always wanted.
The Russian military peak immediately pointed directly at the neighboring lisichansk.
Sergey Gaidai, the military administrator of the Lugansk region of Ukraine, said that there was “no safe place” in lisichansk now, because “the whole lisichansk was attacked by (Russian) large caliber artillery”.
Although the progress was still slow, the Russian army did change the style of crotch pulling in the early stage and completely took the initiative in the battlefield.
Why is that?
CNN quoted U.S. intelligence officials as saying that the Russian army has learned from its early mistakes, “including better coordination of air and ground attacks and improvement of logistics and supply lines”.
The Russian military strategy has changed. From a comprehensive point of view, it is nothing more than a few points.
1. Give up the all-round attack and change to the key attack.
From the initial situation, the Russian army was indeed a full-scale attack, both attacking the eastern region and besieging Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. However, the Russian army’s front was too long, lacked sufficient troops, and the logistics could not keep up. The tenacious resistance of the Ukrainian army made the Russian army pay a heavy price.
After the defeat in the battlefield, the Russian army quickly adjusted its strategy and reduced its forces, focusing on the eastern Donbas region. Moreover, the war was not as impatient as before. After winning the strategic town of Mariupol, the Russian army now won northern Donetsk.
2. Tanks and heavy artillery are better at plain warfare.
Many people have the impression that a modern war is one in which missiles fall from the sky and saturation bombing makes the other side submit. At the beginning, the Russian army may also want to make such a quick decision. But then it was discovered that the role of missiles was limited, and the traditional heavy artillery was cheaper and more effective.
Therefore, we can see that whether it is Mariupol or Donetsk, and the subsequent battle for major cities, artillery and tanks still play a leading role. In the battle on the Great Plains, the Ukrainian army, which is at a disadvantage in weapons, is indeed vulnerable. Even if it is tenacious, it will suffer heavy casualties. Of course, such tactics have also left many cities in ruins.
3. Be not afraid of Western weapons and focus on missile air strikes.
A major problem for the Ukrainian army now is the supply of weapons and ammunition. Zelensky said, “every day I struggle for the weapons and equipment Ukraine needs for the war of resistance against Japan.”
The original Soviet style weapons are about to be exhausted, and the weapons promised by the West are arriving one after another, which has indeed played an important role in confronting the Russian army. But compared with the demand of the battlefield, it is still a drop in the bucket. Moreover, the Russian army, which fully controls the air, has launched missile attacks.
According to the results announced by the Russian army on the 25th, the Russian army launched a precision attack on a zinc factory in konstantinovka, Donetsk region, “killed as many as 80 Polish mercenaries, destroyed 20 armored combat vehicles and 8 hail multiple rocket launchers”; In addition, during the attack on the Black Sea city of Nikolayev in southern Ukraine, “more than 300 Ukrainian soldiers, foreign mercenaries and 35 heavy weapons were destroyed in one day”.
Of course, just look at the information on the battlefield. Neither side will remain humble in their achievements. However, it is an indisputable fact that Western weapons did not serve the purpose of changing the war situation that the West remembered.
What is more embarrassing for makron is that his front foot announced that he would provide Ukraine with advanced “Caesar” truck guns, while the rear foot Russian army announced that he had captured two French truck guns and sent them to the Ural locomotive and rolling stock factory of Russia for research.
Ural locomotive and rolling stock factory has made a public appeal: we are grateful to President macron for his donation of truck guns. Of course, the weapons are sloppy… It can’t be compared with our musta river-s self-propelled gun! But it still works. Please send some more. We’ll take them all according to the order.
What happens next?
Three o’clock, too.
First, the Russian army continued to advance.
According to the general expectation of the outside world, after the Russian army takes Donbas in the East, Bingfeng will continue to move south, and even the next important target is Odessa, an important town in southern Ukraine. The west is using Ukraine to consume Russia, but Russia is consuming Ukraine. If Odessa falls, the whole eastern part of Ukraine will be under the control of the Russian army, and Ukraine will also be completely reduced to a landlocked country.
Second, serious war fatigue.
Especially for the west, if the Ukrainian army fails to achieve an exciting victory, this sense of fatigue and frustration will intensify. Prices are soaring and aid has become a bottomless pit, which also forces the west to rethink its policy towards Russia. Russia is also gritting its teeth, but for Ukraine, whose overall strength is far inferior to Russia, this means a huge crisis.
Third, painful peace.
For a long time or a short time, we can certainly achieve peace, but it must also be a painful peace. Seeing the British Prime Minister Johnson who has been rushing ahead, his words have become pessimistic a few days ago. He thinks that although Britain continues to support Ukraine, the world is beginning to feel tired.
Johnson’s original words were: “for most countries, this is an unnecessary war. Therefore, the pressure will increase, and the outside world will encourage – perhaps force – the Ukrainians to accept a bad peace.”
In this world, if you can’t get it on the battlefield, you can’t always expect to get it on the negotiating table. This is the reality, the cruel reality.