Putin reappears the divine operation, and Japan has another big trouble!

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Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint

On the day of Abe’s assassination, the US Treasury Department issued a statement saying that US Treasury Secretary Yellen would soon visit Japan to discuss sanctions against Russia with Japan.

It seems a little inappropriate to send this message on this day. After all, people are doing white work at home, and Kishida is crying and engaging in emotional offensive. It’s too inhumane for you to assign people the work of fighting in groups as soon as you come up.

Of course, this is only the appearance.

Yellen, an old fox, deliberately stuck in the day of Abe’s accident to make a statement, which was precisely to cheer up Japan and show that he was on the same side with Japan in the face of Japan’s difficulties.

Why do you say so?

This is about the recent fierce battle between Kishida and Putin!

Putin’s divine operation

In early July, Putin signed an interesting presidential decree.

To sum up, in one sentence – nationalize the “Sakhalin 2” project jointly developed with Japan!

This move made Japan panic immediately.

Why?

Because almost all liquefied natural gas imported by Japan from Russia is produced from “Sakhalin 2”, the supply of this project accounts for almost 9% of Japan’s total natural gas imports!

In international energy trade, the proportion of 9% is very high. For example, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia to become China’s largest crude oil importer this year, accounting for only 18% of China’s crude oil imports.

What’s more, Japan itself is short of energy, completely dependent on imports, and its energy supply structure is very fragile. Assuming that the 9% supply of “Sakhalin 2” is unstable, where can we find a substitute under the current situation of extreme shortage in the international natural gas market?

Or even if Japan is willing to spend unjustified money to grab alternative supplies in the Middle East, Australia or the United States, which has the advantage of “Sakhalin 2” in short-range transportation?

Therefore, “Sakhalin 2” is too important for Japan!

Because of its importance, Japanese enterprises have long participated in the investment in this project. Mitsui and Mitsubishi currently hold a total of 22.5% of the shares, making them the third largest shareholder after Russian natural gas and shell.

The Japanese’s mind is nothing more than to stabilize the supply channel of “Sakhalin No. 2” through capital participation by accounting for the supply of stock insurance.

Now Putin’s order to nationalize “Sakhalin 2” is actually to start with the joint of “accounting for the supply of shares”, and by accepting the equity of Japanese enterprises, he clearly told Japan that I won’t let you play with this project.

Since you won’t be allowed to occupy shares, will natural gas cut off your supply next? There’s a lot of room for this!

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Why should Putin make such a move at this time? Three reasons.

First of all, it is to break the G7.

At the G7 summit at the end of June, the leaders of the seven countries figured out a new way to impose sanctions on Russia: limiting the price of Russian oil.

To put it simply, since the prohibition of Russian oil has failed, it is not feasible from the perspective of stabilizing energy prices. Then, in another way, sell and buy, but set a temporary price ceiling for you, so that you don’t make money!

What is the upper limit?

According to Bloomberg news on July 6, the United States and its allies are discussing to lock the Russian oil price in the range of $40-60.

On July 6, WTI US crude oil price was $98.53 and Brent crude oil price was $100.69.

Good guy, I broke my bone directly!

Russia is heavily dependent on energy revenue. If this plan takes shape, it will undoubtedly weaken Russia’s national strength in disguise, seriously hurt Russia’s finance, or, to put it bluntly, make Russia have no staying power on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield.

Can Putin make this plan take shape? Certainly not!

The breakthrough chosen by Putin is Japan.

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Why Japan?

Among the group of seven countries that rely on Russian energy, mainly France, Germany, Italy and Japan. The three giants of the European Union are now willing to sell Ukraine, and Putin can’t move. Japan has actively waved the flag for the United States since the war, and is too concerned about sanctions against Russia. Beating a dog can be shown to its owner, which is just used to sacrifice the flag.

Moreover, in terms of conditions, Japan is short of local energy and heavily dependent on Russian natural gas. Besides Russia, it is difficult to find other big sellers Near East Asia in the short term. Russia is able to force Japan.

As long as Japan is soft, Russia will mention the conditions with the help of “Sakhalin 2”, and the G7 conspiracy will be defeated by itself?

Therefore, on the same day that Putin signed the presidential decree, the press secretary of the Russian President Peskov also came out to make a heartfelt remark, saying that the nationalization of the “Sakhalin 2” project did not represent the general trend of nationalization, “each case will be considered separately”.

What do you mean?

We will not take full revenge this time, but only pack up our little books!

Make a gap in Japan, and Russia will win.

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Second, Japan’s response to NATO.

Another reason for choosing Japan is the high-profile performance of Fumio Kishida at the NATO summit a few days ago.

Although Japan was only invited to attend the meeting, it could not stand Kishida’s opposition. While holding the NATO summit, there were constant small meetings outside the venue. It also made a statement to invite the Secretary General of NATO to visit Japan as soon as possible, update the security cooperation documents between Japan and NATO, and don’t be too urgent to be a leader in Asia for NATO.

Of course, China and Russia don’t like to see Japan make trouble in Northeast Asia. Let’s not talk about China. There is a territorial dispute between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands, and Russia’s Far East defense is weak, and we don’t want all extraterritorial forces to rush over.

So recently, China and Russia are also deliberately beating Japan.

On July 4, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the participation of Japan and South Korea in the NATO summit was a serious fact causing instability in Asia, while the Chinese foreign ministry reiterated that the Diaoyu Islands were China’s inherent territory.

Then, on the same day, Chinese and Russian warships successively appeared in the waters of the contiguous zone of the Diaoyu Islands!

This is the first time that Chinese warships have sailed to the contiguous zone of Diaoyu Islands since June 2018. In particular, it is the joint action of China and Russia. The warning is more serious, forcing the Japanese government to shout that this is “China and Russia provocating at the same time”.

Therefore, Russia’s choice to operate on Japan is also a response to Japan’s little thought of building an “Asia Pacific version of NATO”. If it comes out, it will always pay a price.

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Third, Japan’s own reasons.

What we said above is based on political considerations, and Putin chose to put pressure on Japan on the energy issue at this time. Another important reason is that Japan happens to be in trouble on the energy issue!

The rainy season in Japan ended early this year, resulting in unusually hot weather. The number of hospitalizations for heatstroke in June has reached a record high in 10 years. At the end of June and early July, the “fierce summer day” with more than 35 degrees in Tokyo for 9 consecutive days has set the longest record since the observation began in 1875.

Interestingly, on the day Putin signed the presidential decree, some parts of Japan also experienced unusually high temperatures above 40 degrees.

As soon as the temperature is high, the power demand surges, and the test is the stable power supply capacity.

However, due to the rise in energy prices in recent years, the reduction of thermal power plants due to the shift to clean energy, the withdrawal of nuclear power and other factors, the current situation of power supply in Japan is not optimistic.

At present, Japan’s power reserve coefficient is 3.7%, and the coefficient required to ensure the stability of power supply is at least 3%. If the high temperature continues and the demand for electricity increases, power supply will become a big problem.

To this end, the Japanese government has issued a “notice on the dilemma of power supply and demand” for many days in a row, and launched a “power saving mode” for the first time in seven years, calling on the public to reduce power consumption.

Well, the connection with Russia comes out: Japan depends on natural gas for 30% to 40% of its power generation energy. At this time, if Putin pinches the “Sakhalin 2”, do you think it adds fuel to the fire and is it professional?

So Putin’s move was very accurate. He simply measured Japan’s seven inches to fight!

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Kishida’s response

For Japan, Putin’s move is only a forehand now, and there is still room for continuous operation behind it.

Several situations may occur.

In the first case, and in the most optimistic expectation, Japanese enterprises responded to Putin’s call and gave up the equity of “Sakhalin 2” obediently, but retained the long-term contract for the supply of natural gas.

After all, the purpose of equity participation is to stabilize supply. As long as the contract can be retained, withdrawal is nothing.

But now the situation is that Japan, a die hard expert, has been included in Russia’s blacklist of “unfriendly countries”. What is the use of the contract in the hands of the Japanese?

As long as Japan does not withdraw from the “United Front” of G7 to limit the price of Russian oil, Russia can “cut off” you at any time!

In the second case, Japan chose to bow its head for energy security, what G7 or the United States, while playing!

On the issue of energy prices, Fumio Kishida fully met the conditions put forward by Russia and did not jump around with the G7. Then as soon as Putin was satisfied, he retained the shareholder status of Japanese enterprises. Although the ownership structure might change, the natural gas supply was at least preserved.

However, not to mention that Kishida has no such courage, is there, Japan can still be the master of the American father?

In the third case, Japan raised the Star Spangled Banner, shouted “Dad, give me strength”, and then fought to the end with Russia, and then the chicken flew to the ground, the equity was also forced to give up, and the natural gas import was also terminated.

In this case, Japan’s power supply will be severely hit, and Kishida’s hometown Hiroshima and other places will immediately cut off power. Japan has to go to the spot market to grab high priced natural gas. Whether it can grab it, let alone say, domestic energy prices will inevitably soar, adding to the already difficult economic snow.

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In all three cases, there is great uncertainty.

So now, a difficult choice is in front of Kishida: energy or G7?

If you want energy, you will become a sinner who destroys the unity of G7; For the G7, Japan will have to make great sacrifices.

How did Fumio Kishida do it?

Two days after Putin signed the presidential decree, Kishida personally came out to light the fire, saying that the upper limit of Russia’s oil price would be set at half of the current price, and those above that price would not buy or be allowed to buy.

The purpose of doing so, Kishida also made it clear that “the world is facing the collapse of the foundation of order”, so “it is necessary to show that any violence will pay a high price”.

This is the first one in the G7 to say that they want to limit the price of Russian crude oil. Kishida made a third choice. In one word, it’s a dead end. Are you brave?

The day after Kishida’s statement, that is, on July 4, the Chinese and Russian warships went to the Diaoyu Islands. According to the Japanese defense agency, the Chinese warships are actually supporting Russia, that is, Russia is taking advantage of China, so that if he can’t speak, he can say less.

Then, on July 5, Japan made another move, imposing an export ban on 90 entities in Russia and Belarus, and prohibiting the provision of trust, audit, management consulting and other services to Russia.

At the same time, Japan just reacted and asked Russia to translate. What exactly does Putin’s decree on the “Sakhalin 2” project mean?

And frankly speaking, this project is “very important” to Japan’s energy supply, and Japan is not clear about the impact it will have on Japan.

This time, the Russian side also cooperated very well. Medvedev personally came out and gave a very detailed translation: Japan will not get oil or natural gas from Russia, nor will it participate in the “Sakhalin 2” project!

Who can think of it? Putin still wants to be sold, but Fumio Kishida directly killed tianchat!

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Moreover, the Russian side also revealed a very interesting news. Until July 6, Putin’s decree was almost signed for a week, and Japan has not officially communicated with the Russian Embassy in Japan about the “Sakhalin 2” project.

Is this lying flat with Russia and not going to compromise?

For G7, hard to the end?

From here, we can also see that Japan is “different”.

When the EU imposes sanctions on Russia, whenever it comes to energy, it always says one thing and does the other. There is no delay in ideological struggle and energy trade, even the United States itself.

Now the same problem lies with Japan, who has not even struggled, and directly sacrificed himself to achieve the collective.

Interestingly, at the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, when the western world fell to the ground and cut Russia, Exxon Mobil, shell and other shareholders announced their withdrawal from the “Sakhalin” project. At that time, Japan was actually determined not to retreat under pressure.

Until the end of May, when Koichi hagita, the Minister of economy and industry of Japan, talked about “Sakhalin 2” in parliament, he still expressed his determination: “even if Japan is told to stop, we do not intend to stop.”

Why did he “resolutely refuse to retreat” before, but now he has to say no to Russia?

The reason lies in the attitude of the United States.

Because it is Biden who drives the G7 to limit the price of Russian oil, and Biden is betting on a theory put forward by US Treasury Secretary Yellen that limiting Russian energy prices can exert downward pressure on global energy prices, which can not only weaken Russia’s national strength, but also, more importantly, solve Biden’s biggest headache of gasoline price rise.

The principle is this: as long as the G7 can unite as many oil buyers, shipping companies and insurance groups as possible, it can form a “buyer alliance” that is “against OPEC”. At that time, it will have enough ability to control the global oil trade, and it will also be able to force the price reduction of Russian oil, thereby driving the rapid decline of global oil prices.

But this theory has great defects. For example, if Russian oil can’t be sold, it can stimulate the price increase by reducing the supply. In this way, selling less will not make less money. Why should you reduce the price?

Another example is that the “buyer alliance” package in the United States does not include China and India? If it is not included, the gap is too obvious. If it is included, do you guess whether China and India will buy your account?

For another example, just like sanctions against Russia, how many countries are willing to join the Western alliance? Will OPEC countries take the opportunity to make trouble when they see the West form a “buyer alliance” to grab their say? Even if the oil price is successfully knocked down, will OPEC respond by reducing production, which will eventually lead to a large number of idle production capacity?

More importantly, Russia is only fighting back against Japan now. If the G7 really forms this alliance, will Putin break up in one shot and directly stop the supply of oil and gas to Europe?

So to put it bluntly, Biden is gambling. Anyway, there is nothing he can do about Russia’s sanctions and the rise in gasoline prices in the United States. It’s better to take a risk and gamble, in case it happens?

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Since Biden wants to gamble, will he allow Japan to dismantle its own platform? Will you see Japan become a breakthrough for Russia?

No, then Japan will have to sacrifice itself, flatly reject all the conditions of Russia, and take the interests of Japan as Biden’s stake!

So back to the front, why did Yellen announce her visit to Japan at this time?

On the one hand, he came to supervise the war. On the other hand, he also told the Japanese that no matter how difficult the domestic situation is, there is no father behind it. Don’t counselle, I’ll support you!

I just don’t know whether the Japanese, who are unbearably hot, should scold Putin or Biden when the power is cut off later?

At the end of the article, the author has something to say

Ironically, just when the G7 announced that it would limit the price of Russian energy and Japan was beaten by Russia on the “Sakhalin 2” issue, guess who is the largest buyer of Russian liquefied gas?

France!

Isn’t France a G7 member?

Isn’t Europe also subject to energy checks and balances by Russia, and pipeline gas transmission has been sharply reduced recently?

Why can France become the largest buyer of Russia, but Japan doesn’t even have room for negotiation? What does this mean?

It can only be said that the United States really has a good dog!

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