Putin will attend the G20 summit! The good play has just begun!

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Original: housha source: wechat official account: housha has been authorized to reprint

Against the background of the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian military conflict, whether Russian President Putin will attend the G20 summit held in Bali, Indonesia, in November has become a no small mystery.

The West has made all-out efforts to besiege Russia in politics, diplomacy, economy and public opinion, so extreme that even the “Z” letter can not be used. The United States has also created an impression to the outside world: with Putin in the G20, there is no Biden.

U.S. allies also expressed a collective boycott of the G20, if Putin participates.

This has brought great pressure to Indonesian President Joko. As a host, if Joko does not send invitations to the heads of state or government of G20 member countries as usual, Indonesia will seriously offend the countries concerned.

However, the west is forcing Indonesia not to extend an invitation to Putin, shutting him out of the G20 summit.

This is a very complicated diplomatic issue for Indonesia. If it refuses to invite Putin, the G20 will lose its original meaning.

This grand event, which could have made Indonesia face saving, will become a diplomatic stain and dishonor.


Zoko still showed his ability. Of course, this is inseparable from China’s support.

At the beginning of March, western countries insisted that the Ukraine issue be included in the G20 agenda. Indonesia said that this was not in line with the spirit of the G20 and the provisions of the Rome Declaration.

On March 15, Zhao Lijian responded: the G20 is a major forum for international economic cooperation, not a suitable place to discuss political and security issues such as Ukraine.

On March 23, Wang Wenbin responded again: Russia is an important member of the G20, and no member has the right to dismiss the membership of other countries.

China has helped Indonesia out because China is neither a party to the conflict nor a lightweight member.

China is a permanent member of the Security Council, the world’s second largest economy, the world’s largest manufacturing country, and the largest trading partner of many participating countries.

Now that China has made clear its attitude, it will depend on Indonesia’s own abilities.

On April 14, US Treasury Secretary Yellen refused to participate in the G20 finance ministers’ meeting because Indonesia invited Russian finance minister sylvanov, and Canada, the Netherlands and other countries attacked.

Finally, Minister sylvanov attended by video, and also let the finance minister of Ukraine appear in the same way (Ukraine is not a G20 member).


Indonesia was hit by a real blow from the United States for the first time, and the meeting of finance ministers was fragmented.

On May 12, Joko participated in the “US ASEAN meeting” initiated by Biden. He “saved the G20 summit” with the help of the strength of the 10 ASEAN countries (as stated by the Jakarta Post).

This “transaction” is: Cambodia, the rotating chairman of ASEAN, and Indonesia and other countries participate in the Washington meeting, and the United States stops boycotting the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting and summit.


After stabilizing the United States, Joko visited Moscow on June 30 and issued an invitation to Putin.

Zoko’s trip was quite painstaking. He first visited Germany and Ukraine. On behalf of the European Union, Germany stated that no EU country would disrupt the G20 summit, that is to say, all countries that should come would come.

In Kiev, he extended an invitation to Zelensky. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia would not mind Zelensky clocking in the G20.

After Joko left Moscow, he received a positive signal from Russia on July 6, and Putin initially agreed to attend the meeting in Bali.


In fact, Indonesia does not have any cards, that is, limited energy and food supply, and there is a huge market in the future. However, Joko became the only leader who could visit Moscow and Kiev at the same time when the conflict broke out, which gave Indonesia a lot of points.

On July 25, Joko started the “Beijing 24-hour” diplomatic trip. Before he boarded the plane and flew to Beijing, all circles in Indonesia prayed for the smooth and successful visit.

He was the first foreign head of state to be received by China after the Beijing Winter Olympic Games. The Indonesian people also paid special attention to this trip. Joko also sent six tweets to “live” the Beijing trip to China, and the visit was successful.

On August 18, Joko spoke with Putin by telephone, and then Joko confirmed to the media that Putin would go to Bali, Indonesia to attend the G20 summit.

So, is Indonesia finished? The play is just beginning.

Stage of Bali

The current members of G20 (group of twenty) are: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union (in alphabetical order)

Among them are the G7 group: the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan. They always wear a pair of pants on international occasions (except in the trump era). The European Union is only an institution, but it also stands on the side of the United States.

There are five BRICs countries: China, Russia, India, Pakistan and South Africa. It mainly focuses on cooperation in the fields of economy, trade and energy.

South Korea is an ally of the United States, Turkey is a member of NATO, and the United States listens to the G20 at critical moments. However, the G20 has nothing to do with politics and military affairs.

Mexico, within the trade circle of the three North American countries, does not have a harmonious relationship with the United States and is not as obedient as Canada.

Argentina is getting closer to China and Russia, but like Brazil and other South American countries, the domestic politics swing too frequently. Brazil will change in October, and the support rate of left-wing leader Lula has led the current president by 19%.

Saudi Arabia is unique, a major energy producer in the Middle East and a long-term ally of the United States. However, it is trying to break away from the control of the dollar hegemony. The relationship between the heir to the throne and Biden is cold.

When these countries get together, there would have been a lot of cooperation to discuss. The 20 countries account for about 85% of the world’s total economy and about two-thirds of the world’s population. If the direction is cooperation, the world will benefit.

But now people can feel that there are two opposing groups. On one side are the G7 gangs, and on the other side are the four eyes of the “five eye alliance” (the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia), and on the other side are China and Russia.

This is not caused by China and Russia, but by the United States’ insistence on provoking confrontation, as can be seen from the process of Joko’s “convening a dinner party”.

Why is it that the good play has just begun? When Putin decided to attend, the United States and Britain immediately made a move.

The US National Security Council announced on the 19th that if Putin attended the G20 summit, then Zelensky should also attend.

But Indonesia has already invited Zelensky, so why should the United States do this? The purpose of the White House is to show the outside world that I am the one who decides Ukraine’s participation.

In international conferences, the United States will constantly throw out its own topics and force the conference to discuss them, no matter whether the topics deviate from the theme of the conference.

The theme of the G20 has always been to promote economic and trade cooperation. The White House stressed that Zelensky’s participation in the meeting shows that it wants to push the Ukraine issue into the world and force countries to make their positions known.

Britain’s face is even more shameless. Originally, British Foreign Secretary trass said that if she became prime minister, she would directly hold talks with Putin in the G20, angry with Lavrov.


On the 20th, however, geoblind changed her words. She said that as long as Russia continues to “invade” Ukraine, Russia has no moral right to participate in the G20.

If Britain makes such a mess, it will give Indonesia a headache.

As a compromise, Indonesia invited Zelensky from outside the G20 to participate in the meeting, and obtained the understanding of Russia. But geography blind people go back on their words, and the next trend is somewhat strange.

Although she did not say that Putin would attend and the British Prime Minister would not attend, she has led by more than 30% in the current poll data of the Conservative Party chairman election, and that Indian is unlikely to turn the tables next month.

If geography blind people decide to resist, the whole Western camp will have “problems”.

The risk of “face change” in the United States is even greater. The prospect of the Democratic Party’s mid-term election is extremely pessimistic. If Biden loses the advantage of the house of Representatives, he will limp early.

The White House’s style has always been to lose at home and recover abroad.

In other words, once the democratic party loses, Biden will further provoke China and Russia and exaggerate the “enemy’s threat” to rally domestic public opinion and avoid the early collapse of the 2024 general election.

It is not surprising that the United States has brought the “Taiwan Strait issue” into the G20 under the circumstances of being desperate.

The Anglo Saxon tradition of treachery began to play, and the United States wanted to provoke political confrontation in Bali. Indonesia can not solve this problem at all. This is a contest between big powers, and no one will retreat.

What Indonesia can do is to ease the atmosphere. For example, it is hard to say whether a joint communique can be issued, such as arranging seats, standing for group photos, and bilateral talks outside the meeting.

It is better not to divide the camps at the G20 summit, because world wars are fought after dividing the camps.

It’s still early in November, and I don’t know if Zelensky is still there. If this mine can disappear automatically, Indonesia can also breathe a sigh of relief.

The G20 summit in Indonesia will, to a large extent, let the world see:

Will the future promote globalization or reverse globalization?

Is it going towards multilateralism or hegemonism?

China is defending the most basic tenet of the G20: unity, not division; Economy, not politics; Cooperation, not confrontation.

If the United States must coerce other countries to choose sides, we will wait and see. The good play has just begun!

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