Author: Brother Mao This article is reproduced under the authorization of Brother Mao’s Vision (ID: maogeshijue) on the official account.
Recently, a World Cup attracted the attention of the whole world to Qatar, a small country.
Many people may have never heard of Qatar before the World Cup, but it was this small and unknown country that forced 229 billion dollars into a World Cup.
What is the concept of $229 billion? We can see from the investment of recent World Cups.
Japan and South Korea World Cup in 2002, invested 7 billion dollars;
The 2006 World Cup in Germany invested 4.3 billion US dollars;
The 2010 World Cup in South Africa invested 3.6 billion dollars;
In 2014, Brazil World Cup invested 15 billion dollars;
The 2018 World Cup in Russia invested 11.6 billion dollars.
Since 1990, the total investment of the eight World Cups has been 48.63 billion US dollars, while Qatar has been 229 billion US dollars this time! How can it be a moat?
So, what kind of country is Qatar? Why spend so much money on the World Cup?
one
From Camel to Benz
Thousands of years ago, there lived a group of Bedouins on the desolate Arabian Peninsula.
However, Bedouin people are different from Bedouin people. The ancestors of Bedouin people in Saudi Arabia are mainly nomadic people, because the Saudi Peninsula is vast and can live by water and grass.
However, turning over the map, we can find that Qatar is a peninsula semi independent of the Arab world, just like a prominent mole, facing the sea on three sides, bordering Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the southwest, and facing Iran across the sea on the north.
Because of this coastal geographical environment, the Bedouin people in Qatar mainly rely on fishing, pearl gathering for a living, and occasionally engage in piracy.
For more than 2000 years, Qatar was successively ruled by Alexander the Great, the Seleucid Empire, and the Anxi Empire. Until the 7th century, the Arab Empire rose. The chiefs of Qatar accepted Islam, and Qatar became a part of the Arab Empire.
In 1521, Portuguese colonists occupied Qatar. Later, the local people were dissatisfied with the Portuguese rule and asked the Ottoman Empire for help. The Ottoman Empire then sent troops to drive the Portuguese out of the Persian Gulf.
However, because it is too far from the core of the Ottoman Empire, Qatar did not deploy heavy troops here. Later, in order to fight for independence, Qatar led the British in. For decades, Qatar has been walking a tightrope between the Ottomans and the British.
Until the outbreak of World War I, Qatar directly jumped against Osman, who was in danger under the pressure of the Russian army at that time and dared not offend the British allies, so Qatar officially became the British protectorate.
However, at this time, Qatar was useless except for its important geographical location. It could have fed itself by collecting pearls. However, the Japanese gave Qatar a blow to reduce maintenance!
Japan and Qatar were both big pearl mining countries, but the Japanese were in the early stage of primitive accumulation. Because of the high price of natural pearls and too many people engaged in fishing, the number of mother shells that can raise pearls decreased significantly, and the output decreased significantly.
So the Japanese began to explore artificial pearl cultivation, and in September 1894, they applied for a patent for artificial pearl cultivation. More than a decade later, a large number of artificial pearls entered the market, directly collapsing the pearl mining industry in Qatar.
So, do you think Qatar has always been a local tyrant? No, in the 1920s, Qatar was still very poor. It was poorer than Africa. Africa could grow crops. Qatar had nothing but sand. It barely starved to death by fishing.
At that time, a British officer stationed in Doha, Qatar, once described this desert city as follows: Doha, a small fishing village, was scattered for several miles along the coast. More than half of the houses were dilapidated, and the houses in the market were also very simple. Dust was flying on the road, and electricity was scarce. The local people had to run two or three miles outside the city to fetch water from the well with leather bags or metal containers.
In the 1930s, Qatar heard that California Standard Oil Company of the United States had dug up oil in Saudi Arabia, and began to wonder if Saudi Arabia had oil. Do I have any? We invited BP to explore, but it didn’t matter when we explored. We found a big oil field!
Since then, Qatar has lived a life of food.
However, Qatar can only get tens of thousands of pounds in cash for an oil well, get 5000 pounds of rent every year, and also get the profit share of oil sales. Of course, it takes only 18% of the small oil.
However, after the end of World War II, Britain’s strength was greatly weakened, and the national independence movement in the Middle East was surging. Britain had wanted to rely on the Middle East, but in the Suez Canal War, the United States and the Soviet Union joined hands to pit Britain and France. Finally, Britain chose to withdraw from the Middle East, and Qatar gained a very large autonomy
In 1961, Qatar joined the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
In 1971, the United Kingdom announced the end of the protection treaty. Some areas previously controlled by the United Kingdom formed the United Arab Emirates in partnership, while Qatar and Bahrain chose independence. Later, in 1974, Qatar took back the ownership of the oil company.
It must be said that Qatar’s independence was at a very opportune time. Two years later, the fourth Middle East War broke out, and the Arab coalition was beaten by Israel. The Arab brothers chose to use oil as their weapon to fight against the world.
Production reduction+price increase, the global daily oil supply has decreased by 5 million barrels, and the oil price has soared from $1 a barrel to $11.65 a barrel, almost four times the price in January 1973! By the time of the second oil crisis in 1980, the oil price had risen to 40 dollars a barrel!
The oil crisis has greatly hit the western countries, and also completely put the Middle East countries on the road of becoming rich.
So there is a saying in Qatar: “Jumped from the camel’s back to the Mercedes Benz car overnight.”
However, the path of Qatar’s local tyrants is doomed to be different from Saudi Arabia’s, as Chengya Oil has failed to win.
As we all know, Saudi Arabia can be said to be a country floating on the oil sea. With large oil fields and low exploitation costs, it deserves to be the leader of OPEC. Other countries should follow Saudi Arabia’s advice.
However, OPEC’s oil reserves are also different. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait can rank among the top in the world, but small countries like Qatar, with small oil fields, have reached more than a dozen places.
This leads to a paradox. When OPEC formulates the oil production reduction quota, is it based on the same proportion or the proportion of national reserves?
If the proportion is the same, Saudi Arabia produces more oil, but it is not a problem to produce less. But a small country like Qatar will cry. It depends on selling oil all the time, and will go bankrupt after the production reduction.
But if Saudi Arabia does not do it according to the proportion of reserves, why do we have more output and more production reduction? As the leader of OPEC, Saudi Arabia must tend to its own interests when formulating policies.
Therefore, when the third oil crisis occurred in 1985, the international oil market experienced a sharp drop in oil prices for seven consecutive months, with a drop of 67%. OPEC’s market share fell from nearly 50% in 1979 to less than 30% in 1985, and its total revenue was less than one third of the peak period.
Saudi Arabia can bear the rough skin and thick meat, but Qatar suffers, and the whole country almost goes bankrupt. Qatar had to think of another channel: natural gas.
In fact, Qatar has discovered natural gas for a long time, but the old king Khalifa did not pay much attention to it. He became rich in one step through the oil economy, and has a strong path dependence on the oil economy. Therefore, during his reign, he vigorously developed the national oil industry, ignoring the development of other industries, which ultimately led to a single national industrial chain.
Crown Prince Hamad is the eldest son of Khalifa. He has studied abroad in western countries, knows the benefits of diversified economy for the country, and advocates the establishment of new pillar industries.
So in 1995, Hamad took advantage of the opportunity of Khalifa’s holiday abroad to launch a bloodless “Xuanwu Gate Change”, demanding his father to hand over his power.
Hamad
Poor Khalifa was far away from home. Even his credit card was frozen by his son, and he had no food or clothing. He had to agree to Hamad’s request, abdicate early, and let Hamad become the new king.
After Hamad came to power, he accelerated the research on natural gas exploration, exploitation, processing and storage technologies, and finally built the first LNG export facility at the end of last century, which opened up all links of natural gas export.
Facts have proved that Hamad’s bet is correct. Qatar’s natural gas production outbreak coincided with the world’s environmental trend. The environmental protection of natural gas power generation has led to a surge in the demand for natural gas from countries around the world.
Although Qatar has less oil than Saudi Arabia, its natural gas reserves can be considered as a world giant. The proven natural gas reserves have reached 24.7 trillion cubic meters, ranking the third in the world, and it is also the world’s largest LNG natural gas producer.
Because Qatar’s natural gas production is not restricted by the production restriction agreement of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia, by 2021, Qatar will account for 21% of the global LNG export share, far exceeding Saudi Arabia’s export share in the oil field, and become a top priority country in the world natural gas industry.
With the export of natural gas, Qatar’s per capita GDP reached 63000 US dollars! Three times as much as Saudi Arabia, which is also OPEC!
Note that the per capita GDP of Qatar is calculated based on 2.6 million people. 80% of these people are foreign workers, and the real Qatari population is about 400000. If this figure is used to calculate, Qatar has the largest per capita GDP in the world.
Today, Qatar, a wealthy country, has the 14th largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, with a fund scale of up to 400 billion US dollars. A large part of the shares of the world’s top 500 enterprises, Dutch Shell, Russian Petroleum Company and National Grid of the United Kingdom, are owned by Qatar. Qatar also makes large-scale real estate investments in London, New York and other international first tier cities. The London Canary Wharf Financial City Qatar is the real controller behind landmarks such as the Empire State Building in New York. Even the richest man in the world, Musk, has borrowed some funds from Qatar to buy Twitter.
People, once they have money, they will think differently. Qatar and the Arab world will start to tear each other apart.
two
Trouble makers in the Arab world
As mentioned earlier, because Qatar’s Bedouins are all fishermen, and are different from nomadic Saudi Bedouins, Qatar’s maritime Wahhabism is also different from Saudi land Wahhabism in implementing the fundamentalist Wahhabism.
For example, Saudi Arabia strictly abides by the teachings, implements gender segregation, alcohol prohibition, etc., while Qatar is relatively free, and can even drink. Therefore, many places cannot urinate in a pot.
Despite their different ideologies, Qatar and Saudi Arabia had a good relationship in the Khalifa era. Even if their own interests were damaged, Qatar listened to the leader of the Arab world.
But from the time of Hamad, everything is different.
As we know, Saudi Arabia has a very special way of royal succession. Unlike Britain and Japan, it does not adopt the system of firstborn inheritance, but adopts the system of brother to brother.
However, in the eyes of Saudi Arabia in the 1990s, this usurpation of Hamad was no more than an act of outrage, so it never recognized Hamad’s status as king, and secretly supported the attempted coup attempt to overthrow Hamad’s regime in 1996; In 2005, another attempted coup in Qatar was committed by the Banimula tribe supported by Saudi Arabia.
It was not until Hamad had been in power for many years and his regime was stable that he was allowed to participate in the GCC Conference.
Moreover, after Hamad came to power, he specifically confirmed the direct succession system of the next king, gave the throne directly to his son Tamim in 2013, and streamlined the scope of the direct family of the royal family. The national fiscal surplus was mainly used to invest and improve people’s livelihood, unlike Saudi Arabia, which provided disaster for thousands of princes.
Tamim
In this way, it is equivalent to a group of camels engaged in feudal rule, and suddenly a figure engaged in reform emerged. Can we not be envied?
Hamad is also well aware of this situation, so he must change his father’s philosophy of standing aloof and concentrating on making money, take a more active part in external affairs, and change from a small transparency in the Arab world to an equal figure with Saudi Arabia, so that Saudi Arabia does not dare to touch him.
Therefore, since Hamad came to power, Qatar has begun to actively intervene in regional affairs and play the role of mediator and intermediary in various conflicts and disputes.
From Darfur in Sudan to Eritrea, from Somalia to Yemen, from Lebanon to Palestine, Qatar can be seen in almost every conflict in the Middle East, which has successfully won the trust of all parties to the conflict and played a diplomatic role far beyond its capacity.
Not to mention the surrounding countries, even the US military has to deal with Qatar to negotiate with the Taliban. After the outbreak of the war in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates quickly abandoned the Taliban, but only Qatar has always allowed the Taliban to open an office in Doha.
Therefore, in February 2020, the Trump Administration of the United States and the Taliban finally reached a peace agreement, which was also held in Doha, the capital of Qatar.
The United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha on February 29 local time (Anadolu News Agency)
It can be said that Qatar has been a mediator between the West and the Taliban in the past decade, and is even considered to be the only country capable of persuading the Taliban to maintain contact with the world.
Even after the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, Qatar has become a host and transit country for Afghan refugees, which has been praised by Western countries and has won Qatar the international recognition and reputation it has been seeking for a long time. This has helped Qatar become the new “arbiter” of regional affairs, thus directly threatening Saudi Arabia’s position as the leader in the Middle East.
Moreover, Qatar is also very good at “fishing in troubled waters”.
For Qatar, an Arab world united under Saudi Arabia has too much pressure on itself. It is better to muddy the water and let Saudi Arabia cope with it. Therefore, since Hamad came to power, he has frequently provided “advertising support” and financial assistance to anti-government forces in many countries.
In Syria, Qatar supports the anti-government forces, even the local Al Qaida branch. According to Qatar’s plan, the opposition has the support of the West. After agreeing, it will certainly thank the King Qatar, so that it can attract another country.
In Palestine, Qatar supports Hamas, which is not surprising. Israel is the enemy of the Arab world. Hamas and Israel oppose each other, and supporting Hamas is politically correct. So far, Qatar has provided 1.8 billion dollars of assistance to Hamas.
In Libya, Qatar supports Tripoli’s “Libya Dawn” and fights with the new eastern parliament supported by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
In Lebanon, the Qatari envoy went to Lebanon to mediate, never forgetting to bring the past 15 million dollars to Hezbollah in person.
In Tunisia, Qatar secretly supported the revival movement of extreme religious organizations in Tunisia, and made great efforts in Tunisia’s color revolution.
According to incomplete statistics, Qatar has spent at least 100 billion dollars in the past 20 years. The Atlantic Monthly said that in the past 25 years, Qatar has played a role in almost every “crisis” or “turmoil” in other GCC countries.
It has to be said that Qatar knows that it is easier to ignite than to extinguish the fire. Qatar spends 100 million dollars to help others do things. Saudi Arabia may not be able to spend 1 billion dollars to calm down.
Therefore, Saudi Arabia is like a second generation general manager who inherits his father’s career. He is always confronted with the aggressive challenge of Qatar, a resourceful (rich) vice president. He either secretly acts badly or disagrees with you every day. Can he bear no grudge?
Therefore, Saudi Arabia has long been thinking about regulating Qatar, but considering the relationship between Qatar and the United States, it has never dared to do so.
Until 2017, the opportunity finally came.
In 2017, Trump took office as President, and Saudi Crown Prince Salman Jr., who was in power, happened to have a “good relationship” with Trump’s son-in-law, Kushner. Therefore, under the operation of Kushner, Trump arranged his first visit to Saudi Arabia on May 20, 2017. During this visit, Saudi Arabia and the United States signed a $100 billion military sales order, which can be said to be blood.
Just two days after Trump left Saudi Arabia, the website of the Qatar State News Agency suddenly broadcast a speech purported to be King Tamim of Qatar, saying that “Iran is the center of the region and Islam”, is “an Islamic power that cannot be ignored”, “it is unwise to be hostile to Iran”, and criticizes the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Soon, Qatar dispelled the rumor that the press release was attacked by hackers and the content was forged by hackers.
But to be honest, Saudi Arabia does not believe this explanation. You do it every day. How can you not think so? It doesn’t matter if this is really the work of hackers. It’s not too bad to have the opportunity to send the whole Qatar to your door!
On June 5, 2017, at the initiative of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Maldives and Mauritius announced that they would break diplomatic relations with Qatar.
On June 23, Saudi Arabia and other four countries put forward a 13 point ultimatum to Qatar as a condition for resolving the diplomatic crisis.
These ultimatums include breaking off diplomatic ties with Iran, expelling Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, freezing Hamas funds, stopping aid to “terrorist organizations”, shutting down Al Jazeera TV, apologizing to all Gulf governments that have been “insulted” by Al Jazeera TV, obeying the GCC Constitution and abiding by the GCC resolutions in all domestic and foreign affairs in the future, etc.
This is too harsh. If Qatar agrees to these conditions, it means realizing the fundamental transformation of Qatar’s internal affairs and social philosophy and system, making it a “puppet” under Saudi Arabia’s “supervision”, and Hamad’s 20 years of painstaking layout will turn into nothing.
So Qatar refused the request of Saudi Arabia. Needless to say, what the hacker said is what I said. Let’s do what we like!
Subsequently, Saudi Arabia announced a comprehensive blockade of Qatar. The United Arab Emirates announced that anyone who sympathizes with Qatar will be sentenced to 3-15 years’ imprisonment and a huge fine by the United Arab Emirates.
It has to be said that this is a fatal blow to Qatar. Qatar has many deserts and is short of water resources. The temperature in summer is as high as 50 degrees Celsius. Food has been imported for a long time, and 70% of its imports depend on the land channel of Saudi Arabia.
After Saudi Arabia closed its border, Qatar had to choose air transportation and sea transportation. The cost of air transportation soared, while sea transportation greatly increased the flow cycle of goods, and the country was once in a dilemma of food and medicine shortage.
In 2018, Saudi Arabia proposed to spend US $1 billion to dig a “canal” between itself and Qatar, which is 200 meters wide, 15-20 meters deep and 60 kilometers long.
Once the canal is completed, Qatar will become an island country from a peninsula country, and there will be no land neighbors, thus showing off its national strength and constituting a psychological deterrent to Qatar.
What’s more, Saudi Arabia plans to build military bases and nuclear waste landfills around the canal, which will completely threaten the survival of Qatar.
Saudi Arabia’s plan will influence the daily life of Qataris through blockade and threats, exert greater political pressure on the government authorities, and force Qatar to yield.
But no one expected Qatar to survive this situation when it tried to make a move.
First, vigorously develop agriculture. Open the satellite map and you will find that the desert in Qatar is full of green circles, which is actually a large-scale farm in Qatar. Because there are wells and water sprinklers in the middle, the range of water spraying is a circle, and the water comes from seawater desalination equipment. Although the cost is high, it somehow solves the problem of whether there is one or not.
At present, the self-sufficiency rate of grain in Qatar has increased from 15% to 60%, and the self-sufficiency rate of dairy products and poultry products has reached 90%.
The second is the aid from friendly countries. After the diplomatic crisis, Iran sent five flights the next day, providing 90 tons of food, mainly fruits and vegetables, to Qatar. In addition, three ships carrying 350 tons of food also sailed out of Dayer Port in Iran to help Qatar. Iran also promised to transport 100 tons of fresh fruits and vegetables to Qatar every day.
Türkiye also transported milk, yogurt, poultry and other food to Qatar by plane within 48 hours of the blockade, easing the crisis. Türkiye sent military personnel to Qatar to protect the security of the Qatari royal family and prevent possible Saudi intervention.
In order to continue to receive assistance, Qatar also spent 7 billion dollars to rebuild a heavy berth port.
Third, actively take diplomatic efforts to break the blockade. Qatar found that although many countries broke off diplomatic ties, Kuwait, Oman and other countries in the Arab world did not participate in the containment, which provided Qatar with an opportunity to break the blockade.
Under the coordination of Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have made some breakthroughs in mutual communication and reached some understandings on some key issues, such as Qatar reducing or giving up its support for some “terrorist organizations”.
Since the second half of 2020, Kuwait has also lobbied Saudi Arabia and Qatar respectively to promote reconciliation.
Of course, it is the United States that ultimately plays a key role.
Qatar bribed the US four-star general John Allen, the former top commander of NATO, to lobby the US government for Qatar. In December 2020, Trump’s son-in-law Kushner visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and their relationship improved significantly.
In January 2021, Saudi Arabia lifted the blockade against Qatar without getting the expected purpose at all, which is basically equivalent to letting you off for Dad’s sake!
So far, Qatar’s diplomatic crisis has ended completely, and Qatar has had the last laugh in this game.
three
Qatar’s survival strategy
We found that Qatar is a small and isolated country surrounded by the Arab world. Except for Iran in the north, almost none of the surrounding countries have a good face towards it.
Qatar is rich, but you must be able to keep your money, otherwise you will be guilty.
Therefore, careful analysis of all means of Hamad after taking office is aimed at improving Qatar’s international influence, so as to enhance Qatar’s voice and avoid becoming a small transparency in the Arab world like Oman and Bahrain.
To achieve this goal, Hamad made three moves.
The first step is to establish Al Jazeera Television.
Hamad came back from studying in Britain. He obviously learned the essence of the British Shit Stick and knew that public opinion should go first when it comes to doing things. So in the second year of accession, he arranged for the Qatar Investment Authority, which his wife was in charge of, to invest 300 million dollars to set up Al Jazeera TV.
In terms of production mode, Al Jazeera TV has a very obvious BBC style, which is not surprising, because many production backbones were dug up by Hamad himself from the BBC Middle East Branch in Saudi Arabia, so the semi guided TV station has the advantage of reducing dimension among a number of conservative and backward Middle East TV stations, and is famous for fast news and live broadcast.
During the war in Afghanistan, Al Jazeera became famous by broadcasting bin Laden’s videos. CNN and other television stations sometimes spared no expense to buy its exclusive news programs. In the subsequent Iraq war, Al Jazeera TV in Qatar quickly won huge popularity in the Middle East by exposing many scandals of the British and American coalition forces.
It is through this TV station that Qatar, with less than 1% of the population in the Arab world, has created a miracle of more than 65 million viewers, and basically has the right to speak in the Arab world.
With popularity, you can sell private goods, the most important of which is to promote Brother Mu.
The Muslim Brotherhood is a traditional Sunni organization that originated in Egypt. Although it has always emphasized its Islamic identity, it pursues Islamic democracy in its political form and opposes autocratic monarchy. Therefore, it is not allowed by Saudi Arabia, which is an autocratic monarchy, and is regarded as a thorn in the side.
Qatar’s friendship with the Muslim Brotherhood is due to the friendly relationship between Hamad’s grandfather Abdullah and the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood on the one hand, and Qatar’s consideration of using the Muslim Brotherhood to divert Saudi Arabia’s attention on the other.
Therefore, in the Arab Spring, Al Jazeera TV made full use of its power to publicize, expand and even exaggerate the situation, becoming a mobilization machine to closely contact the opposition parties in Arab countries and encourage youth revolution, including exposing the corruption scandal of dignitaries, exaggerating the fact that the authorities suppressed, and encouraging anti government demonstrations and strikes all over the country, which played a very obvious role in fuelling the flames.
Because of the dominance of Al Jazeera TV in the Arab world, its publicity effect is far better than that of CNN, BBC and other international powerful television media.
With the help of Al Jazeera, the Muslim Brotherhood succeeded in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and other countries. It also participated in the power sharing plan in Yemen. If Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had not intervened in time, Qatar’s neighbor Bahrain would have changed.
Therefore, as long as Al Jazeera is in hand, Qatar can hold the “nuclear weapons of public opinion” in the Middle East.
The second step is to make friends with Saudi enemies Türkiye and Iran.
If we carefully observe the whole Islamic world, we will find that it is in a very delicate state of tripartite confrontation.
On the surface, it seems that Iran’s Shi’ites and Saudi Sunnis are fighting for the leadership of the Islamic world, but there is a strange country Türkiye in the middle. It is doing things in the east and west. Whether it is supporting Azerbaijan to fight against Armenia or establishing the Turkic National Alliance, they are all trying to gain the best interests for themselves in the struggle between the snipe and the clam, and finally let Erdogan be crowned the Great Sultan of the Islamic world.
Türkiye is not as rich as Qatar. It can do things with money. Another way Türkiye uses is to support the Muslim Brotherhood.
In a sense, Erdogan’s Zhengfa Party is a faction of the Mu Brotherhood, so Türkiye has always supported the development of the Mu Brotherhood. The highest administrative organization of the Mu Brotherhood, the “Discipline Bureau”, is located in Türkiye, and many members of the Mu Brotherhood wanted by Saudi Arabia and other countries are also in Türkiye.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Türkiye and Qatar are both supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and challengers of Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Arab world.
Although Türkiye is on the edge of the Middle East world, it has a military base and garrison in Qatar, the core region of the Middle East world. This is obviously a means for Qatar to balance the Saudi forces.
Cooperation with Iran is in the full economic interest.
The North Gas Field, the largest natural gas field in Qatar, is estimated to have a total storage capacity of 51 trillion cubic meters. In addition, there are about 50 billion barrels of condensate oil, which is one of the largest hydrocarbon reserves in the world.
However, this gas field is not unique to Qatar, but spans between Iran and Qatar and is shared by the two countries.
Despite Qatar and Iran, one believes in Sunnis and the other believes in Shiites, but interests are the best glue.
On the one hand, Qatar’s economic lifeline is under Iran’s nose, which forces Qatar to have a good relationship with Iran. Otherwise, the Persian Gulf will be so narrow, and Iran will send a small boat or frogman to harass it every day. Qatar can’t stand it.
Moreover, Qatar’s LNG ships rely on the Strait of Hormuz for transportation, and the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran.
On the other hand, Qatar’s gas fields need complex LNG liquefaction before they can be sold, and they also face competition from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
If we have a good relationship with Iran, we can take advantage of the “Peace Pipeline” plan planned by Iran to directly transport natural gas through the pipeline to Gwadar Port in Pakistan, directly connect China and India, and win a huge market.
Therefore, it is essential to maintain relations with Iran.
Third, we should balance Saudi Arabia’s pressure with the strength of foreign powers.
If we say that Türkiye and Iran are foreign aid, we can occasionally provide timely assistance, but to ensure the security of Qatar, the weight of these two countries is obviously not enough. Look at the Yemeni civil war, does Saudi Arabia say that it has also intervened?
Therefore, Qatar needs a backer.
The preferred target must be the United States. After the outbreak of the Gulf War in 1991, the United States increased its military deployment in the Middle East, but after the war ended, it suffered from being unable to stay for a long time, which was an opportunity for Qatar to sign a military cooperation agreement with the United States to deepen defense.
In 1996, with a stroke of his pen, Hamad, who had just come to power, promised the United States to enter the Udaid Air Base. This is not a simple military base, but the largest air base in the Middle East. It is the core of the United States in the entire Middle East. About 80% of the fuel supply and refueling of the United States in the Middle East and the Gulf region come from Qatar.
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So why do you think Qatar dares to follow the sand everywhere? Isn’t it just that there are American troops at home? Although there are also American troops in Saudi Arabia, the United States will not tolerate Saudi Arabia making a big deal, so Saudi Arabia will not dare to send troops to Qatar even if it spends money to dig canals.
However, as the US military strategy moves eastward, there is a strategic gap in the Middle East. Who will protect Qatar’s security at that time? If there is no backer, I’m afraid Qatar’s natural gas industry will become the cause of extinction, so Qatar must find a new backer.
Looking for Russia? Russia is too weak to control Central Asia. How can we get involved in the Middle East? Looking for EU? The EU countries are too divided, the policy continuity is poor, and the ideology is always talked about, which makes you sick every day.
Recently, it seems that China in the east is the most reliable, powerful, moderate and reasonable. Besides, China has always been a loyal customer of Qatar’s natural gas, and the two sides have their own affinity, so they hit it off.
Therefore, we find that in recent years, China Qatar relations have rapidly warmed up, especially this World Cup, which is an important opportunity for Qatar and China to deepen their relations.
Let’s take a look. From the main stadium of the World Cup, to Hamad Airport, Hamad Port, Russell New Town, the subway, to the trophies, mascots, football, flags, horns, whistles, ornaments, pillows, etc. of the World Cup, and even the field advertisements, they all come from China.
Some people say that China has made more money in this World Cup than it did in the World Cup itself. What does that mean?
It shows that Qatar is cooperating with China’s “the Belt and Road” by taking practical actions to help digest China’s already surplus infrastructure capacity, so as to cooperate with China’s overall strategy.
In addition, whether intentionally or coincidentally, during the World Cup, Qatar specifically announced that it had signed a 27 year long LNG purchase and sale agreement with Sinopec, and that Qatar Energy would supply 4 million tons of LNG to Sinopec every year.
Don’t underestimate the game behind this big order. As we all know, after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, global energy prices soared and the world natural gas market tightened. In the future, whoever can get low-cost long-term natural gas will have an advantage in the manufacturing industry.
When Europe fell into a gas shortage and flew to Qatar to look for gas sources, Qatar gave orders to China, which itself shows that Qatar has given China a big name in the current game between China and the West.
This “investment status” is different from the transactional relationship of the US military base, but it is a cooperation agreement of equality, mutual trust and letting nature take its course.
When China’s overseas interests are in Qatar, China’s natural gas source is in Qatar, and China’s strategic fulcrum in the Middle East is in Qatar, then Qatar will naturally have more weight in China’s overseas strategic balance than other countries. Once Qatar has something to do, China will never sit idly by.
In fact, the eastern powers have already helped to arm Qatar, providing Qatar with the Chinese version of Haima. This latest foreign trade surface to surface ballistic missile system includes two kinds of missiles/rockets, namely SY-400 guidance rocket and BP-12A ballistic missile, with a range of 70 kilometers to 280 kilometers. It is powerful and can strike targets in depth in neighboring countries. It can be called Qatar’s “Dongfeng Express”.
SY400
Presumably, with China’s checks and balances, Qatar’s security should not be a problem.
four
World Cup bonus
Some people think that Qatar’s GDP is only more than 170 billion dollars in total. Why should it spend 229 billion dollars to host the World Cup? What can I get from this World Cup after spending so much money?
First, influence.
It is reasonable to say that Qatar has invested 229 billion dollars for the World Cup, more than the total investment of all World Cups. However, surprisingly, Qatar has not received much praise, but criticism has been ringing in the ears.
For example, since Qatar was awarded the right to host the World Cup, the western public opinion has never stopped criticizing the bribery campaign.
In the construction of the World Cup venues, the West accused the workers in Qatar of killing 6500 people.
After Qatar introduced the World Cup ban on drinking alcohol (which is not a complete ban) and the ban on LGBT and other regulations that do not conform to Qatar’s religious habits, the curse became louder.
The BBC also refused to broadcast the opening ceremony on November 20. Even in the football match, two European spectators wore the armor of the Crusade to participate in the game, which was too provocative.
In fact, the reason why the West went to Black Qatar with great fanfare is that Qatar showed a completely different Middle East to the world through the World Cup.
When we mention the Middle East, the first thing we think of is either the backward streets and alleys that explode every day in poverty, or the nouveau riche who can only sell oil but have no culture. Although rich, they are barbaric, backward and feudal. If there is no oil, nothing is.
But what does Qatar show through the World Cup?
At the opening ceremony, Qatar expressed its splendid history with the life of desert camel caravan and Bedouin people, and conveyed its concern for the world in the theme opening.
The dialogue between a black traveler and a Qatari disabled boy shows that Qataris are aggressive, confident and funny even in adversity.
This is simply a slap in the face of the West in PiaPia. We let the disabled and black people participate in the opening ceremony, which is more civilized than what you hypocritically do with LGBT!
By using 1500 Yutong new energy buses imported from China and China’s 800 megawatt photovoltaic power station, it has proved to Westerners that environmental protection is not only a card of your Westerners’ moral superiority, but also Qatar understands environmental protection and green. When you choose to chop firewood for burning, Qatar has been able to make greater practice and contribution to environmental protection.
The high-tech sports ground and prosperous city fully demonstrate the civilization of the Middle East people, and let the world know that the world is far more advanced than the West.
And the theme song “Dreamer” of the World Cup sung by the Korean Tian Muguo also made the world find that Arab countries are not so serious and conservative in culture.
These displays overturned the stereotype of the Middle East world deliberately created by the West, and triggered a sharp rebound of Westerners who were not prepared for the great changes in the world.
The influence of the World Cup is also there, even if the West negates Qatar. Many people will change their views on the Middle East and Qatar after watching the World Cup.
Therefore, what Qatar has conveyed to the world from the World Cup is that Arabs have their own civilization, which is equal to and no worse than the Western civilization. This is undoubtedly a rebuttal to the “theory of clash of civilizations”, “Islamophobia” and “Westerners are superior”.
When the world pays attention to Qatar because of the World Cup, its goal is achieved.
Second, the Qatar World Cup will also greatly change the security situation in Qatar.
The State of Qatar is weak, and its army is only more than 10000 with full calculation. It can’t withstand a surprise attack by Saudi Arabia.
Although Qatar can provide security protection by introducing great powers, or even pay Türkiye to provide security protection, it is all dependent on outsiders, and no one can say that it is 100% reliable at a critical moment.
The World Cup provides a good opportunity to forge iron.
Because of the shortage of security personnel, Qatar appealed to the world for help to establish a joint security force composed of multinational police and troops.
There are fighter planes of the Qatar UK Joint Flight Squadron in the air, responsible for air security.
At sea, the Pakistani warship “Tabuk”, the navies of Italy, Türkiye and other countries also sent warships to support the security of Qatar World Cup.
On the ground, the Czech Republic and Slovakia provided anti chemical weapon attack defense system and related training, while Romania provided VIP guests and anti improvised explosive device training. Türkiye has provided 3000 policemen and 250 soldiers, while the French official has sent 220 gendarmes and policemen to Qatar. The United Kingdom, South Korea, France, Italy and other countries will also provide cooperation in the fields of police and intelligence exchange.
Although these personnel will be withdrawn after the World Cup, once the channel of security cooperation is established, it will not be easily cancelled. Qatar can take this opportunity to carry out security cooperation with more countries and provide greater assistance for its next step of strengthening military strength.
Third, gain the future.
Influence and security are just the immediate interests Qatar has gained from the World Cup. In the long run, Qatar may take advantage of this to open up a different future.
Hamad is different from other princes in the Middle East. He sees the problem further and more deeply.
Qatar has lived a good life by relying on oil and natural gas. However, there will always be a day when the oil and natural gas are exhausted and the new energy revolution is in full swing. What will happen to Qatar if the energy is exhausted or worthless in the future?
So from the day he ascended the throne, he began to tirelessly study the successful cases of Singapore, South Korea and other countries, develop national economic diversification, build countless shopping centers, cultural museums, art museums in Qatar, attract tourists from all over the world, start developing the tertiary industry, and also arrange the Qatar Investment Authority to invest in the world to invest in the future of Qatar.
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The World Cup is the same this time. Although it seems to have cost a lot, most of it has been invested in infrastructure, such as the $36 billion driverless subway system; A $15 billion artificial tourist island, yacht docks, shopping malls and villas, and landscape gardens; Ports and airports worth US $7 billion, solar power generation systems, 15 largest drinking water pools in the world, etc.
For a country with only 2 million foreign workers, these large infrastructure projects are simply the rhythm of “rebuilding the country”!
According to the “multiplier effect” of infrastructure, this huge basic investment will create tens of thousands of jobs and promote the development of construction, energy, public services and other industries. The World Bank has predicted that Qatar’s economy will grow by 4.9% this year.
What’s more, Qatar spent 45 billion dollars to build the new city of Russell, which is obviously to take the opportunity of the World Cup to follow the successful path of Dubai again.
Speaking of Dubai, in fact, it is similar to Qatar. Later, the United Arab Emirates began to change its development model for the sake of the country’s long-term plan. It spent 650 million dollars to build the only seven star sailing hotel in the world, attracting rich people from all over the world to come here. This time, it has completely made Dubai famous.
Subsequently, hot money poured in, and crazy infrastructure projects such as Palm Islands and World Island turned from drawings into reality, driving the development of Dubai’s tourism industry.
Within 20 years, the number of hotels in Dubai has increased from 42 to 350, and each hotel is more luxurious than the other. In 2020, up to 20 million tourists will come here to travel.
Tourism, real estate and finance have become the three pillars of Dubai, which has completely changed the situation of dependence on oil in the past. Obviously, Qatar’s investment this time is also intended to take the opportunity to build an international metropolis, become the economic and financial center of the Middle East, and invest in a brilliant future for Qatar’s economy.
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Big ambitions of small countries
In fact, there are many small and ambitious countries like Qatar.
North Korea can’t afford to play with a missile, so as to play with neighboring countries.
Türkiye, while blackmailing NATO, is making friends with Russia, and at the same time, is also trying to win over the Turkic National Union, which is also intended to become a pole in the future.
The current King Tamim of Qatar is a post-80s generation. Although he is not as eye-catching as Kim Jong un, he has made full use of his own strengths (money) to try to move the original world pattern.
We will find that the world has entered a century of great changes, and the world order is tending to collapse in the past, so it is the best time for many small countries to improve their international status and jump to the forefront of the world.
Perhaps, Qatar, with its “cash capacity”, may indeed find a new way to rise in the century of change.
This article is reproduced with the authorization of official account Maoge’s Vision (ID: maogeshijue).