Author: lukewarm source: official account: lukewarm studio has been authorized to reprint
The purpose of the US interest rate hike is mainly to combat inflation.
To fight inflation, people say that the prices of things are rising too aggressively. We have to keep things from rising.
The United States is such a powerful country that the world supports it. How can we say that inflation is inflation?
Because now the United States does not produce most things. It only produces high-tech products and sophisticated weapons, which are used to threaten others. Anyone who does not obey will produce an F35 to bomb his home until he is obedient. As for pots and pans, clothes and toys, they will be left to other countries, mainly China.
Of course, pots and pans, clothes and toys are not what you want to produce. Shunde, Foshan, specializes in small household appliances and kitchenware, which have only accumulated their current level for decades. 304 steel has not been popularized in the industry for many years.
I am familiar with this because I used to go there to pick up goods when I was an e-commerce operator. I ate crayfish with beer in the evening. I talked a lot and almost made a bow to some small appliance factory owners.
Chuan Bao, the former president of the United States, thinks that China’s industry is developing too fast. We are buying fertilizer. No, we have to increase tariffs. If you increase tariffs, retailers will take the cost into account and increase sales prices, which will bring about a real rise in prices in the United States.
Then the United States became basically a financial country. Everyone’s money was in the stock market. The stock market could only rise but not fall. The whole country was kidnapped. Everyone speculated in the stock market, which made the foam flying, and the anti risk ability was particularly poor. In 2020, the epidemic broke out, and the world stopped production and transportation, which made the United States miserable.
At that time, the U.S. stock market was about to die. It was Chuan Bao and his gang who came up with a shameless plan. Infinite QE saved the stock market. They tried hard to give cash transfusion to Americans’ accounts to help Americans who never saved money. They threw money everywhere and distributed dollars indiscriminately. More money and less goods led to a continuous rise in prices.
In 2022, Russia and Ukraine clashed. Good guy, the price of oil was speculated again. As soon as oil rose, almost all commodities had to rise. Repeat the story of 1974, and the inflation in the United States would be unstoppable.
But in fact, the most important reason is the de industrialization of the United States. From 1607 to 1900, Americans were unable to endure hardship. If they wanted to make people in other countries suffer hardship, they could enjoy happiness and lay flat, but whoever lay flat would be beaten. This is also the law of the world empire. In the early stage, they worked hard to start a business and enjoyed it after becoming rich. In the later stage, the foam collapsed, and no one could escape.
The same is true of ancient Rome. After the world became stable, it was so wild that people dared to mess around in public bathhouses. Their armaments were lax. The Romans evaded military service. More and more barbarians became soldiers. Eventually, the Empire collapsed and broke up.
This has been repeated several times in the history of China. I think we can’t escape this rule in the future. However, we are still in the climbing stage. It will be decades before we reach the peak. In the future, there will be a good day for more than 100 years, and then we will fall into the dilemma of the United States today.
The United States also knows that chase inflation is coming again, but in order to stabilize the market sentiment, it has been said that inflation is not a thing, but temporary. Please keep calm, and then you were mercilessly beaten in the face by the reality.
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Don’t laugh at the folly of the people at the Federal Reserve. All the old foxes are so smart that they wipe their faces with oil. They know better than anyone that inflation can’t be held down. But for the sake of the stock market and the American people, of course, they must always comfort the market and say it’s okay.
Just tell the doctor that he won’t say, “you’re finished, go home and die.” the doctor will only cheer you up and say that you can survive by smoking less and drinking less.
In addition, the United States has a rich family and has been enjoying the cheapest price in the world in exchange for the hegemony of the US dollar. Both magic and physical defenses are high, so the continuous 8% inflation shock can be withstood.
But we can’t keep inflating like this. We have to have a head, don’t we? This year, the number of shootings in the United States has obviously increased compared with previous years. As long as the economy is bad, public security will become worse.
Moreover, the United States is a country with a very complex ethnic composition and a proliferation of civil fighting. Over the years, it has been peaceful. It relies on the world’s top productivity to suppress domestic conflicts. As soon as the productivity drops, the country will show its true shape.
The so-called human beacon refers to the peak of productivity for a period of time, and never refers to the peaceful coexistence of civil contradictions.
As I explained in detail in my own arrangement of history, the United States once suffered from more serious inflation, which reached a high of 14%, and finally relied on:
20% high interest rate + two successive waves of productivity explosion + eating the Soviet Union and Japan + China providing cheap industrial products
The four elements burst out together and survived.
After the US raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points this time, its interest rate was only between 1.5% and 1.75%, but it was 20% that year. With so many conditions, it was suppressed.
I don’t believe that raising interest rates alone can solve the problem of inflation in the United States. The essence of empire is to engage in finance and abolish the country. Inflation is only the result, and recession is inevitable.
All the ways the United States plays now are not to save its own life, but to try to delay the time for China to replace it, including blocking China by the high-tech industry and slowly clearing away the Chinese companies listed in the United States. If you can wait one more day, just one more day.
Every old empire in the world cannot stop the loss of high technology to the new empire. China cannot stop the loss of silk and tea technology. Britain cannot stop the loss of steam engines to Germany and the United States. Today, the United States cannot stop the loss of chips and military industry.
Some people in China are very depressed. Seeing that the top design software is in the hands of the Americans, China feels that we can’t compete with the United States. In fact, this is not the case at all. Those who design top software have always been citizens of the world. They will move their families to the United States as soon as the country is strong or in chaos. That’s how they moved to the United States during World War II.
As long as the internal contradictions in the United States cannot be covered up, and as long as Uncle black and brother Mo break through the hidden rules of the United States and rush into the rich community with guns, these world elite citizens will immediately come to Shanghai and Shenzhen to work and provide the Chinese people with the most advanced design software.
The problems of the United States have always been their own. It is not China that threatens them. It is they who have ruined their country.
Every powerful empire disintegrates from the inside. External forces are only incentives, and internal forces are the root.
Like this US interest rate hike, it will not save the US.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points this time in June, and plans to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points in July. Coupled with the upside down of the US bond interest rate, the market generally believes that the soft landing of the Federal Reserve has failed. It must be a hard landing, and it is a head-on landing.
So the Federal Reserve is now leading a global recession, reducing inflation by reducing demand and restoring supply balance.
I started writing articles in 2019. I remember that the three major stock indexes in the United States were around 28000 points for Dow Jones, 8000 points for NASDAQ and 3000 points for S & P 500. Chuanbao’s share price soared when he was in office, with 36000 points for Dow Jones, 15000 points for NASDAQ and 4800 points for S & P 500. Three years have passed. Today, Dow Jones is 30668, 11099 points for NASDAQ and 3789 points for S & P 500, and it will soon fall back to 2019.
The downward trend of the U.S. stock market is irreversible. This is the cycle of history, the law of the Empire, and can not be retrieved by a technical detail.
The sharp interest rate hike in the United States is just a waste of money to cut inflation. It will also exacerbate the economic problems of developing countries in the world.
As a global currency, once investors see the value of the US dollar after the interest rate increase, they will exchange other currencies in their hands for us dollars and sell a large number of other currencies, resulting in the devaluation of other countries’ currencies, the devaluation of currencies, the rise in the price of imported goods, and the inflation of this country.
After the interest rate hike, the US cash will be withdrawn, the amount of money flowing into the stock market will become less, the stock market will plummet, a large amount of money will have nothing to do, they will go to speculate in bulk commodities, such as oil and grain, and the global oil price will rise again.
Therefore, Russia and electric vehicles are going to make a lot of money again. Ukraine is doomed, and China’s electric vehicles will sell better and better.
I can’t help but want to give Powell a stick of incense. Thank you for the blessing of the Federal Reserve.
After the US raised interest rates, the central banks of all countries had to raise interest rates to avoid the outflow of money from their own countries. If they dared to cut interest rates at this time, they would die miserably. They have never dared to do so. However, Turkey is so brave and really uses interest rate cuts to fight interest rate increases.
The economic law and Erdogan have worked in Turkey. Either the economic law or Erdogan will die. One of the two must die.
Facts have proved that Turkey, which violates the economic law, now has inflation of 73.5% and currency depreciation of 40%. The economic law is not dead, but Erdogan is not dead. He is still ruling Turkey well.
The political control ability of the Sultan of Egypt is really strong. He can carry this kind of magic economic data. Who does the whole world care about?
The source of the picture is from the network. The details are unknown
Most people in China now feel pressured by high oil prices. Food and daily necessities are still the same as in previous years. In fact, inflation is exploding all over the world. The world is on a very dangerous edge. Powerful countries cannot afford economic contradictions and rely on war to transfer risks.
Thankfully, China’s financial regulation is very strict. Otherwise, this wave would have to be led by the nose and deregulated. This time, the inflation is estimated to be above 5%.
Thankfully, Hong Kong has steadfastly held down in the past two years, which has also fixed the offshore RMB window, so that China will not be harmed by the hegemony of the US dollar, and can also learn from the world finance.
According to the latest news, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in July, 25 basis points in September, 25 basis points in November and another 25 basis points in December.
I still say that the conditions are not as good as those in the 1990s. Raising interest rates will only delay inflation, but it will not solve inflation.
Raising interest rates will not save inflation, nor will it save the United States.
To completely solve inflation, we must pay a more tragic price, which is likely to be an irreparable global price.