Author: Sheng Tang rushong source wechat official account: the chief shopkeeper’s knife has been authorized to reprint
Over the past two days, someone said on the Internet that Russia will not recognize Lithuania’s independence and the Russian government will cancel Lithuania’s existence as a sovereign state. In fact, if I see the title of this kind of speech, I will not click it. But this time a friend sent me links and screenshots of articles outside the wall. I thought it seemed to be true. My friends think that Russia is preparing for the next step of military expansion? So, I think it can be said.
First of all, it can never happen. Because Lithuania has no direct border with Russia, [but the famous Russian enclave Kaliningrad is sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland.] To start, Belarus should first respond to the Russian rally, and then start. Otherwise, if Russia sends troops from Kaliningrad, it is estimated that Poland will start to take Kaliningrad first, because this is the result that Poland has long hoped for: Taking NATO as the paw and tooth, and giving Russia a painful meal. The safest way to send troops is to join hands with Belarus or let Belarus provide military channels [but this is tantamount to joining in. This is a great risk for Belarus. Although Belarus supports Russia, it is not willing to become a real integration with Russia.] More importantly, Lithuania is a NATO country. If Russia really acts against Lithuania, it will mean that NATO has to tear off the last layer of the fig leaf and go to war directly with Russia. This is the result that Russia does not want to see at present. Otherwise, it would not have been so conservative and moderate in Ukraine.
We can call the Ukrainian military action a self-defense counterattack, but if a direct war with NATO is finally formed, I think it is not what Putin wants. Although he is not afraid, he must be ready for it. But his aim was by no means to fight NATO.
Since this can never happen, how did this remark come out? Is it a deterrent speech made by the Putin government to the three Baltic countries, NATO and even the whole Europe? I don’t think so. It is meaningless to say that this is impossible, except to make Europe more afraid of Russia and thus more resolutely cut off any contacts with Russia. This is not good for Russia. Even though Russia has its own market dependence, I think Putin feels the importance of the European market to Russia more than anyone else. To smash Europe, even if Putin has this ability, it is not the result he wants. The final compromise is the best result expected by the mainstream class in Russia. Once Lithuania’s national attribute is dragged into the final negotiation of this war, not only will the compromise be far away, but the war will inevitably expand to the whole Eastern Europe, even the whole Europe, as a last resort.
I used the word “mainstream class” above, which refers to Russia’s national dominant power. That is, the ruling group headed by Putin. However, Russia is not always the same person or group as Putin. Among them, there are the weak who strongly advocate peace, and there are also the hard liners who use the strong in everything, while Putin’s ruling group chooses the good ones to use them. The so-called philanthropist is the speech or suggestion that is conducive to the implementation of the mainstream program.
We know that Russia has always been known for being tough, and Putin himself is a hardliner. But in the eyes of many people in Russia, he is not tough enough. For example, Yevgeny Fyodorov, the member of the Russian State Duma who issued a motion not recognizing Lithuania’s independence.
The name of Fyodor ROV may be seen on the news, but we don’t think it has any mystery. But since he made such remarks, he must have made them out of his own position. Although he is a member of the State Duma, he is not an official of the Russian government. However, his titles outside the government are quite dazzling. For example, he is a member of the budget committee of the State Duma, a member of the central political conference of the United Russia party [ruling party], a Russian first-class supervisor, a doctor of economics, a reserve Colonel, and a dispatcher of the national liberation movement of the Russian Federation. It’s ok if you don’t understand these titles, but the last one must be understood. [but before that, I couldn’t understand it]
What organization is the national liberation movement of the Russian Federation? “The goal of the national liberation movement is to restore the sovereignty lost in 1991! We support Russia’s national process and territorial integrity. Our great country is at the crossroads of history!” This is the slogan of this organization with 190000 members. Seeing this slogan, we can understand why the congressman named Fyodorov strongly demanded that Lithuania’s independence be revoked.
Lithuania was the first country to secede when the Soviet Union collapsed. It was the chaos in Lithuania that led to the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union. Although Lithuania is not an explosive or even a detonator, it is qualified to say that it is a lighter. In January, 1991, Lithuania became independent, and the Soviet Union sent troops into Lithuania to maintain stability. However, this stability maintenance action was opposed and resisted by Lithuanians and Westerners [see Ukraine from 2013 to 2014], and eventually evolved into a violent incident. Western countries took the opportunity to exert pressure on Gorbachev to force him to recognize Lithuania’s independence. Latvia and Estonia [both of which belonged to the Soviet Union at that time] kept shouting for support. Other former Soviet republics that also wanted independence fanned the flames. Finally, Gorbachev signed a document and agreed to Lithuania’s independence, thus removing the first cornerstone of the Soviet building. Although it was small, it was enough to make the whole building collapse.
Therefore, in Fyodorov’s mind, the former Soviet Union, which was the first removed cornerstone, was solemnly put back, or it was no less important than the whole Ukraine. This is probably the core reason why he proposed not to recognize Lithuania’s independence and make Lithuania a part of Russia’s territory.
However, we can not say that Fyodorov is a big talker. Russia is not called a fighting nation in vain. The organization of the national liberation movement of the Russian Federation has 190000 members. It seems that the number is small, but they are all strong men. For example, Fyodorov himself once shed blood on the battlefield in Afghanistan. In general people’s perception, the Soviet war in Afghanistan brought down the Soviet Union, but in the hearts of Soviet soldiers like Fyodorov who had personally experienced Afghanistan, this is not the reason, at least not the main reason. Although the war in Afghanistan has consumed the Soviet Union’s national strength for a long time, the huge Soviet empire can not afford to consume it. In the hearts of some loyal supporters of the former Soviet Union, the disintegration of the Soviet Union can only be caused by the conspiracy of western countries, and there is no second reason.
Therefore, the members of this national liberation movement are most enthusiastic about opposing the United States and the West and rebuilding the great Russian Federation [sphere of influence in the Soviet era], and are willing to pay their lives for it. The leaders of many armed groups in eastern Ukraine are members of this liberation movement. For example, mozgovoi, the famous leader of the Wudong armed ‘ghost camp’ [attacked and killed by the Ukrainian government in 2015]. Most of these members have served in the military. Their blood is boiling and their words are fierce, which can be used by Putin.
Strong nationalist rhetoric can indeed help the Putin government. But these remarks are not only a call to the introverted people, but also a clarion call to the western world. We often see descriptions of Russia’s’ dictatorship ‘or military strongmen in Hollywood or European films, which are often painstakingly provoking wars between Russia and the western world, [of course, the American hero succeeded in fighting the fire]. This not only fully shows the consistent mistrust of the western world towards Russia, but also shows that Russia does have such a force that is very hostile to the West. And Fyodorov is a concrete embodiment of this power. With such a strong and highly national offensive force, some of Putin’s strong statements have become relatively mild and easy to hear. This is the greatest significance of the existence of Fyodorov. Otherwise, he would not be one of the members of the central political conference of the United Russia party. However, this is definitely not Russia’s final choice, because if Fyodorov’s goal is really put into action, it is unrealistic and dangerous for the current Russia, but if it is only stimulated by words, it will have another flavor.
Putin likes it very much, and Europe and the United States are afraid.