Original: Shenzhen ningnanshan source: ningnanshan
From time to time, I read some articles by American media, think tanks and experts, mainly to understand what Americans think. Of course, they also have different views in the game.
But what I find interesting is that I don’t know what the reason is. In short, Americans always like to compare the rise of China to Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union.
This makes people feel some limitations. Since modern times, many countries have risen, including the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, the Soviet Union, the United States
In November2006, China Central Television broadcast a documentary “the rise of great powers”, which recorded the rise of Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Russia and the United States, and summarized the historical laws of the rise of countries. Why do you just like to liken China to Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union?
Why not compare China to the rise of the United States, Britain, France and the Netherlands? Even Russia is divided into the Tsarist Russian stage and the Soviet Union stage. Why is it that China is rarely compared to the rise of tsarist Russia?
This makes me feel that there are some problems, because when you evaluate your opponents, you should think from multiple perspectives, rather than limited to one perspective. If only one point of view is OK, if the collective environment is the same, your thoughts will have a potential role in the long run.
I think the pure American perspective has three limitations,
First of all, there are limitations in political correctness, so we need to compare China to Nazi Germany, fascist Japan and the Soviet Union. In short, we need to put China together with them to create a sense of moral superiority for the United States to suppress China. In any case, it means that China is an evil country similar to Nazi Germany and fascist Japan, corresponding to it. Of course, the United States is a just country, and suppressing China’s rise is a struggle between justice and evil.
Then there are the limitations of the perspective of English speaking countries. For English speaking countries, the rise of Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union is a challenge to the world hegemony of English speaking countries. The common point is that they are all hegemonic challengers of English speaking countries. Now China is also a challenger, so China is also one of them.
The third is a potential psychological implication that the United States must win. Nazi Germany, fascist Japan and the Soviet Union are all failed countries to challenge world hegemony. They all failed in the end and came to a tragic end. The three countries lost a large area of land. For example, Japan’s defeat in World War II spit out northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, China and Sakhalin Island, which was gradually occupied after the Russo Japanese war. The four northern islands were also occupied by the Soviet Union, Putting China with these failed countries is a psychological hint that the United States will win.
In fact, in my opinion, this similar classification method is wrong. China is China, which has the uniqueness that Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union do not have. In fact, these three countries are very different from each other. It is not that they are all challengers to the hegemony of English speaking countries, but they are similar to each other.
Most simply, China’s population is three times that of the three countries combined. It is also rich in natural resources and holds the world’s largest manufacturing capacity.
It is not only the size of the population and the scale of manufacturing capacity, but also the psychology of countries and citizens.
Let’s talk about the driving force of territorial expansion. Japan and Germany not only have a small land area, but also lack strategic depth, so they have the power to “expand living space”. Although Russia has a large land area, I wrote about the geography of Russia before. Most of their land is located in cold regions. Compared with China, the development level of the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s was much higher than that of China, However, at their peak, there were less than 300million people, but China fed 1billion people at a much lower level of development at that time. The reason is that China’s good place for agricultural production and human habitation is indeed better than the Soviet Union.
Our habitable area is larger than that of the Soviet Union + Japan + Germany combined.
As for the strategic depth, it is generally believed that the Soviet Union / Russia has such a large territory, so it has a great strategic depth. However, from its geography and population distribution, it can be seen that there are no big cities in the east of Moscow. Most of the population is located in the West of Moscow. The two largest cities in the country are the Great Moscow region (Moscow City + Moscow State) with a population of 20million, and St. Petersburg with a population of more than 5million. No other city has a population of more than 2million.
If the enemy occupied St. Petersburg + Moscow and the grain producing areas in the southwest of Russia, Russia would lose most of its population, industry and agricultural production. Therefore, Russia’s strategic depth is not so deep. This is why Russia attaches great importance to Belarus and Ukraine. The core Moscow region of Russia is less than 500 kilometers from the western border of Belarus, So why does Russia want to control Belarus? In addition, it does not want Ukraine to turn to the West.
This is totally different from the situation in China. China’s strategic depth is much greater. The following figure is the standard map I downloaded from the official website of the Ministry of natural resources. The straight-line distance from Shanghai to Chongqing is about 1500 kilometers, and it is almost 1700 kilometers by car. Moreover, the distance between North and South in China is also very long. If the enemy strikes from north to south, or from south to north, I checked the map. It is almost 2200 kilometers by car from Shenzhen to Beijing, Needless to say, further north, China still has a military industrial base in the northeast. Not only is the strategy profound, but also because of the awareness of preparing for the world war, China has built industrial bases in many places, from northeast, north, northwest, East, central and southwest China, there are military factories everywhere.
Today, China’s total economic output, total population and industrial added value are about 10 times or more than those of Russia, which is very different in size.
Therefore, it can be seen from the above that, unlike Germany, Japan and Russia, China has a large area of habitable land and a great strategic depth. The best land in East Asia is basically occupied by China. Chinese nationals can choose where to live on their own land. They can live in northern China if they like the four seasons, and in southern China if they like the warm climate.
So the Chinese actually lack the power to expand. China is not interested in Southeast Asia or the Korean Peninsula.
Besides, China, the world’s largest manufacturing capacity, is a level that Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union have never reached. Generally, we like to say that made in China is “big but not strong”, which can spur us to make continuous progress to a higher level, but in fact, “big” is actually a part of “strong”.
First, a large output means that there is a market for what is produced and that people are willing to buy it. In other words, it is actually competitive in the market. Even though this competitiveness may largely come from the price, and the performance and quality are not as good as those of medium and high-end goods, it at least means that the quality is within the acceptable range,
If this kind of output continues to grow, it means that the medium and high-end share is constantly replaced.
Second, China’s manufacturing industry has a large capacity, which actually includes “all”. In other words, China’s manufacturing capacity does not only mean the high output of a single product, but also means that the upstream, middle and downstream have a complete industrial chain, which is a very huge advantage.
The third is the super large scale of China’s manufacturing industry, which also includes the ability to quickly form large-scale production capacity. In other words, it is not only large, but also “fast”, which can efficiently expand production capacity.
Take Tesla for example. The most correct decision Tesla made in the past few years was to build a plant in Shanghai, China, which can even be said to have reversed Tesla’s fate. In 2021, Tesla delivered 936000 vehicles worldwide, while 499647 vehicles were delivered in 2020, almost doubling in 2021. In 2021, 484130 vehicles were delivered by the plant in Shanghai, China, accounting for 51.7%, while the plant’s output in 2020 was only about 250000 vehicles.
Tesla’s Shanghai plant started mass production at the end of 2019, reaching a production capacity of more than 480000 vehicles in 2021 through capacity ramp up. But what if the efficiency of Chinese manufacturing is lower, for example, the mass production will not take place until the end of 2020, and then the production will only be 100000 vehicles in 2021? What will be the impact on Tesla?
In this example, China has not exported electric vehicle technology to Tesla, but has brought benefits through efficient capacity expansion. In fact, we can think about it. What if this industrial capacity is used for war?
Finally, the “super capacity” is actually a threshold. We usually think that only the technical threshold is the threshold, but in fact, the huge capital investment threshold behind the large capacity is not necessarily lower than the technical threshold.
The technology level of Changjiang storage in Wuhan is obviously not as good as that of Korean enterprises, but the monthly production capacity of 300000 PCs in phase I will cost US $24billion. In fact, this capacity only accounts for a small part of the world, which shows the high threshold. Other industries are more or less similar. To form a huge production capacity, it requires a large amount of capital to continue to invest, which is itself a threshold.
Large scale manufacturing also has other advantages. For example, ultra large capacity can reduce costs and dilute R & D costs. Once a breakthrough is made in technology, ultra large capacity can enhance cost competitiveness.
I don’t want to list other differences between China and the Soviet Union, Germany and Japan, but we can see from all aspects that China is different from Japan, Germany and the Soviet Union, and China is actually much stronger in overall strength. But the American elites like to compare these countries together, which will create a wrong atmosphere and affect judgment.
I think this is also enlightening to our country.
When we look at the challengers of middle and low-end industries, we are used to putting Vietnam and India together, but in fact, if we look at the long-term threat to China’s development, Vietnam and India are not at the same level.
The huge gap in volume can be said to be an irreparable gap. Vietnam’s threat to China is only tactical, but India is strategic. It does not mean that the two countries are often placed together as challengers of China’s low-end industries. The two countries are almost the same.
Vietnam’s area is only 330000 square kilometers, and it is still within the direct military influence of the Chinese Navy, while India’s actual control area is more than 3million square kilometers. As the Indian Ocean is far away, the influence of China’s navy is much weaker.
The population of India is more than 14 times that of Vietnam.
According to the IMF’s world economic outlook in April 2022, India’s total GDP in 2022 is expected to be US $3.53 trillion, which will surpass the UK and leap to the fifth place in the world. Vietnam is expected to be US $408.9 billion, ranking 39th in the world. India is more than eight times that of Vietnam.
India’s technical capability is not comparable to Vietnam. India has local automobile companies, steel companies, large Internet companies and pharmaceutical companies, which can manufacture military weapons by themselves. India’s first domestic aircraft carrier “willant” will be put into active service in August this year. The ship began design work in 1999 and was launched in 2013.
India has also mastered long-range missile technology. The longest agni-5 missile has a range of 5500km,
The Mars probe mangarian can be launched and successfully put into Mars orbit in 2014.
It is true that if India is compared with China, Japan, South Korea and Western countries, its technical ability will be eclipsed. For example, the Mars probe and domestic aircraft carrier above, although India once took the lead in progress, China soon came from behind with Liaoning ship, Shandong ship and tianwen-1, and its technical level is incomparable with India, which reflects that China’s basic ability is stronger than India.
But among the developing countries, except China, you can’t find a country with stronger comprehensive strength than India. At the same time, among the global developing countries, you can’t find several countries like India that regard China as the number one enemy.
In 2021, India’s economic aggregate has exceeded US $3trillion for the first time, ranking sixth in the world, surpassing France, Italy, Canada, South Korea and Russia. Considering that its economic aggregate is only one step away from Britain, India is likely to surpass Britain to become the fifth in the world this year. India’s economic aggregate has reached 61.6% of Japan’s, and the growth rate is far beyond that. It is expected that India will surpass Japan in the future, Second only to China and the United States, it ranks third in the world. With the expansion of its size, its ability to bring strategic pressure to China is becoming stronger and stronger.
In fact, I have always wondered why China seems to have a different attitude towards India and Vietnam. India has unconsciously developed to the sixth place in the world and the fifth place in the world. However, we still don’t think that India is very strong. Vietnam’s economic aggregate in 2021 is only the 39th in the world, but the domestic network can see that Vietnam has surpassed China. I think this may have something to do with the atmosphere of public opinion.
Take smart phones for example,
India not only began to produce Apple’s iPhone 13 in 2022, but also has attracted Samsung, Xiaomi, oppo, vivo and other companies other than Huawei to realize the nationwide production of smart phone assembly in India.
According to the latest research on the market monitor service of counter point data, the shipment of smart phones in India increased by 11% year-on-year in 2021, reaching 169million units, and the overall market revenue exceeded US $38billion, a year-on-year increase of 27%.
By vigorously promoting localization, India’s locally manufactured smartphones accounted for 98% of the Indian market’s shipments in 2021, while the domestic proportion was 90% in 2020. In addition, apple and Samsung have begun to export from India. In 2021, India’s mobile phone exports increased by 26% year-on-year.
Or according to the data of counter point,
In 2016, the global output of smart phones, China’s share was 74.3%, ranking first in the world, Vietnam’s share was 10.7%, India’s share was 8.7%, and South Korea’s share was 3.1%, ranking fourth in the world.
By 2021, China’s share of global smart phone production will be 67.4%, India’s second place in the world will be 15.5%, surpassing Vietnam, Vietnam’s third place will be 11%, Indonesia’s fourth place will be 2%, and South Korea’s share will shrink to 0.6%.
It can be seen from the above that India is the country with the fastest growth rate of smart phone production in the world.
According to the Yonhap report on February 28, 2022, a survey data released by the Korean automobile industry association (Kama) on February 28 showed that the Korean automobile output in 2021 decreased slightly by 1.3% year-on-year to 3.462299 million units, ranking fifth in the world.
In 2021, the global automobile production increased by 2% year-on-year to 79.78 million vehicles. From the perspective of each region,
China ranked first with 26.082 million vehicles, an increase of 3.4%,
The United States produced 9154354 vehicles, ranking second in the world, with an increase of 3.9%,
Japan ranked third in the world with 7846253 vehicles, down 2.7%,
India ranked fourth in the world with 4396084 vehicles, up 30.1%,
South Korea ranked fifth in the world with 3.462299 million vehicles, down 1.3%.
Germany also produces more than 3million cars, but they are scattered around the world, so they are not in the top five.
I remember a few years ago I wrote an article about India. At that time, India surpassed South Korea in automobile production for the first time in 2016 to become the fifth largest in the world, and South Korea retreated to the sixth largest in the world.
Five years have passed now. Objectively speaking, India’s automobile production has stagnated in recent years. The high growth rate of more than 30% in 2021 is also due to the low base affected by the epidemic in 2020. India’s automobile production in 2021 is not as high as that in 2016, but this has not prevented India’s automobile production from gradually rising to the fourth place in the world.
The reason behind this is very simple. The global automobile production has declined sharply from 2019 to 2021 for various reasons. In 2021, the global automobile production was only about 80million, while in 2016 it was about 95million, not just India. The automobile production of China, the United States and Japan, which ranked first in India in 2021, fell compared with 2016. For example, the automobile production of China in 2021 fell by about 2million compared with 2016.
I calculated the output share. The global share of India’s automobile output rose from 4.7% in 2016 to about 5.5% in 2021.
Generally, we believe that India forces foreign capital to set up factories in India by raising tariffs. The main result is to achieve local production of products sold in the Indian market. However, in fact, whether it is smart phones or automotive products, we can see that India’s ambition and ability are not limited to meeting the needs of its own market, but to continuously expand exports and achieve substitution for other countries.
The figure below shows India’s automobile output and export in fiscal year 2020 (April 2020 March 2021) according to EMIS insights. India’s automobile exports (including motorcycles, tricycles and the like) reached US $19.4 billion, while the export of spare parts in fiscal year 2019 also reached US $15.2 billion. It can be seen that Indian manufacturing is capable of exporting and can replace the export of other countries.
Compared with Vietnam’s manufacturing capacity focusing on electronic product assembly and labor-intensive products, India’s manufacturing categories, production capacity and technical capacity are obviously much stronger on the whole. The figure below shows the global crude steel production in 2021. Of course, China is the world’s largest, while India’s crude steel production has also reached 118.1 million tons, ranking second in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, second only to the United States among the top ten.
Unlike Vietnam, which clearly knows that it cannot carry the whole industrial chain, India clearly aims to replace made in China and tries to form a situation that made in India + made in America market and technology replace made in China + made in America market and technology economically.
In the non manufacturing sector, India has eliminated all Chinese apps from the Indian market in the Internet sector, making it impossible for Chinese Internet companies to make profits in India, while apps from the United States and India occupy the market.
In short, with regard to India, we should not only achieve win-win cooperation between the two countries, but also pay attention to its competitive nature. Sometimes, seeking unity is not only a matter of tolerance for the overall situation, but also through struggle.
In terms of manufacturing, we should prevent upstream and downstream enterprises in the domestic industrial chain from setting up factories in India, especially strictly restrict key technologies and industries from setting up factories in India, learn from Taiwan’s “no haste, be patient” policy of the semiconductor industry towards the mainland, effectively keep TSMC and other advanced production capacity in Taiwan, maintain a huge competitive advantage, and focus on key parts, raw materials and production equipment, India continues to rely on me in terms of software and technology.
Second, it is prudent to participate in the investment and construction of Indian infrastructure, not participate in infrastructure projects with high military uses, not participate in the factory infrastructure that can greatly replace the import of Chinese made products to India after completion, and use the profit assessment system for the participation of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Indian infrastructure projects.
In short, for different objects, specific analysis should be made on specific problems. It does not mean that they are all challengers, all “evil countries” and all low – and middle-end industrial transfer destination countries, so they should be classified according to the actual situation, so as to reduce the interference to make correct judgments.