Source: wechat official account: authorized daily Yijian
After the village bank and the red code incident, the housing ticket incident once again pushed Henan to the forefront of the storm.
Many other we media don’t write about Henan, or even touch it. But I think the media people are the last detail of society. If we don’t speak, who will speak? So I still want to talk.
The whole story of the village bank must have been learned from the Internet. It is useless to repeat what others have said. In a few days, I will talk about my views in combination with the whole banking industry.
Today, let’s start with room tickets.
On June 20, the Zhengzhou municipal government announced the shanty town reconstruction plan, which clearly stated that: the expropriated can choose the room ticket for resettlement. First, you can get a reward of 8%, and second, it is not included in the family purchase limit.
Once the news came out, one stone stirred up thousands of waves.
Market sentiment is both pessimistic and positive.
Pessimists believe that this is a return to the 1970s and a return to the old path of planned economy.
The positive people believe that the housing ticket placement is conducive to “de Stocking”, can increase the transaction volume of the real estate market, stimulate consumption and mobilize the enthusiasm of house purchase, which is a major positive!
Moreover, in 2015, China’s real estate market experienced a wave of inventory, followed by a wave of rising prices. The hot real estate market also led to China’s economic take-off.
Therefore, they believe that this wave of using house tickets to inventory will also achieve the same effect, which will pull up the whole real estate market. The cold winter is coming to an end, and the real estate market is about to rise!
At first glance, these two views have their own reasons. Today, I will talk about my views.
First of all, we have to figure out the concept of “room ticket”.
In China in the last century, when we were still carrying out a planned economy, we used to carry out food stamps, oil stamps and cloth stamps.
When the infamous Tangshan kitchen knife team went to the street, they liked to carry a canvas bag across their arms. There were two layers in total. One layer contained kitchen knives and the other layer contained food stamps.
See, in that special era, even hooligans have no way to eat without food stamps.
This was also a microcosm of social life at that time.
Later, with the reform and opening up and the rise of the market economy, food stamps and cloth tickets gradually became antiques. After entering the museum, people began to use money to buy goods, houses, cars, meals and shopping.
Therefore, this time, as soon as the concept of “room ticket” is put forward, some people are naturally pessimistic.
They will think, is the planned economy coming back again? Now there are room tickets. After that, will the food and cloth tickets come back again?
In fact, there is no need to worry about this. After so many years on the road of market economy, it is impossible for us to go back.
Moreover, this room ticket is not that room ticket.
If we look at the news again, we will understand that this house ticket, in short, is a settlement voucher for the purchase of houses issued after the quantification of compensation equity currency.
The government now wants to demolish your house. In the past, it directly gave you monetary compensation, or gave you another house, right?
Now it has been changed. It gives you an alternative way. You can take the room ticket exchanged for the housing resettlement compensation rights and interests and purchase commercial houses from the developers who can use the room ticket in the central urban area within 12 months.
What if you are overdue? Don’t worry. You can also resettle in the form of monetary compensation, that is, to give you a new sum of money.
So, seeing this, you should understand?
This so-called room ticket, in fact, came into being to effectively revitalize the property market and destock.
Therefore, it has nothing to do with the planned economy. There is no need to worry about it.
OK, the first problem has been solved. Let’s look at the second problem:
What impact will the re emergence of real estate tickets have on the property market? Will real estate usher in a new round of price rise?
To solve this problem, we must first understand what the current real estate market is like.
First look at a set of data.
This is the real estate sales data from January to May this year released by the National Bureau of statistics a few days ago. Sales decreased by 31.5% year-on-year, and sales area decreased by 23.6% year-on-year, and the decline is still expanding.
What does this set of data mean?
A very simple point shows that it is difficult to sell houses now.
So in the past few days, we can still see that, also in Henan, there are some real estate reports encouraging farmers to exchange “wheat for houses” and “garlic for houses”.
You don’t have the money to buy a house, do you? OK, take the wheat and garlic planted in your field and come to us to buy a house. We can buy it at a price higher than the market price and deduct the house price!
This phenomenon also shows that it is difficult to sell houses now.
On the one hand, it is difficult to sell houses. On the other hand, there are more and more houses.
Kerui Research Center has been committed to the research on the real estate industry for ten consecutive years. According to their statistics, by the end of April this year, the narrow sense inventory of commercial housing nationwide had reached 608million square meters.
What is narrow sense inventory? That is, the area of commercial housing that has obtained the pre-sale certificate but has not yet been sold.
This data is very exaggerated. As the market turnover is low, the national average de conversion cycle has reached two years.
To put it simply, from today on, all the real estate construction sites in the country will be shut down without covering a square meter. In this case, it will take two years to digest all the inventory.
In addition, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, as of the end of April this year, the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide was 557million square meters, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, which is also the highest in the past four years.
What is this concept?
According to the per capita housing construction area of 39.8 square meters, the existing commercial housing area for sale is enough for 14million people to live!
In addition, all localities are still vigorously “selling land”. The broad inventory of commercial housing in China (the sum of the saleable housing volume and the construction volume of residential land) has reached 3.84 billion square meters, enough to meet the living needs of 96million people!
How about these groups of data? Are you shocked after reading them?
However, this is not the end. I was talking about the average data before. Is there anything too much?
Of course, there is a place in Guangxi called Fangchenggang.
Fangchenggang’s property market inventory will take 12.7 years to digest!
In Harbin, Lianjiang, Changchun, Hohhot and other cities, the de chemical cycle has exceeded 100 months, which means that it takes 8-10 years to sell out the existing inventory!
There is too much inventory. In fact, there is no need to worry. As long as the population growth can match, it will be no problem.
But now, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, at the end of last year, China’s urbanization rate was 65%, that is, 65% of Chinese residents live in cities.
The Bureau of statistics also predicts that China’s urbanization rate will reach 72% by 2035.
In other words, in the next 13 years, China’s urban population will increase by up to 90million. Of course, this does not include the population loss caused by aging.
This set of data is very, very critical.
You know, first of all, the houses developed by real estate developers are built in cities and towns. Therefore, the urbanization rate is very important.
Secondly, combined with the above-mentioned real estate inventory area.
We were surprised to find that China’s existing narrow inventory of commercial housing has been enough for the entire market to digest.
In other words, the size of the real estate market has clearly peaked.
This is the general trend. We must understand it.
If there is not enough population to digest these inventories, the inventory risk of the property market will rise sharply.
The greater the inventory risk, the easier it is for the real estate company to go bankrupt.
Therefore, all localities are trying to reduce risks and loosen the property market.
Take Zhengzhou as an example. Since April, the local government has relaxed the restrictions on purchase and sales. There are new policies for talents and deed tax subsidies. However, the rate of deregulation is only 18%, the lowest in five years.
Moreover, the number of visitors to the sales offices was affected by the epidemic, and fell instead of rising in March.
This is why, this time, Zhengzhou is so active in introducing room tickets.
It’s just for inventory. It’s not only in Zhengzhou, but also all over the country.
After the epidemic, the local government should start to sell land to ease the financial pressure. Once the land is sold, new buildings will start construction, and the inventory will rise again.
Therefore, China’s entire real estate market, a new round of de stocking pressure, is imminent!
As I said, this is a new round of de stocking. When was the last round of de stocking pressure?
It is 2015.
You should still have an impression? In 2015, China’s real estate inventory at that time came up, so we must go to inventory, otherwise, a large number of real estate companies will go bankrupt.
So, at that time, we launched a 530 new deal.
Of course, it is precisely because of the 530 new deal that China’s real estate market has risen sharply since 2015.
However, it is worth mentioning that the 530 new deal is mainly aimed at first tier cities and second tier cities, and has little impact on third and fourth tier cities.
At that time, the inventory pressure of real estate in the third and fourth tier cities was still great.
Therefore, all regions began to think of ways. At this time, someone came up with a wonderful idea, and then began to promote it on a large scale in all the third and fourth tier cities across the country, which directly led to the sharp rise in house prices in the third and fourth tier cities.
What is this wonderful idea?
Is the transformation of shanty towns!
The shed reform launched in 2015, called monetized resettlement, has started a wave of de stocking in the third and fourth tier cities and a wave of soaring house prices in the third and fourth tier cities.
How about it? Does it sound familiar?
Back to the front of our article, the reason for Zhengzhou to choose room ticket resettlement this time is, yes, the shed reform!
This move is to learn from the experience of the third and fourth tier cities.
Well, let’s continue to look at the operation mode of the shed reform.
First of all, the local financing platform, that is, a local state-owned enterprise, began to carry out demolition. Of course, demolition needs money. Where does the money come from?
It’s very simple. We borrow money from CDB. We give money to the relocated households to buy new houses. On the other hand, we tear down the shanty towns and build new houses to sell.
In this way, rolling development will promote the circular development of the local real estate market.
The local government is responsible for approving projects and carrying out demolition, the national open bank is responsible for loans, and the local financing platform is responsible for rolling development. The division of labor among the three is detailed.
As a result, land value increases, house prices rise, houses are updated, people have new houses to live in, and the government also gets land income. Then developers, real estate enterprises, building materials companies and construction workers can make money.
The shed reform was a good policy for mutual benefit and win-win results.
However, there are also two impacts: first, the shanty towns are limited. With the annual transformation, there are fewer and fewer shanty towns, which is an inevitable trend.
Second, the local housing prices will be driven very high, which is a huge pressure for those who do not live in shanty towns and are just in need of housing.
Therefore, the transformation of shanty towns must not continue all the time, but should be liberalized with limits and choices.
Therefore, in 2017, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed a three-year shed renovation plan, with a total of 15million units.
Then, in 2018, in the face of the sharp warming of the real estate market, the state proposed that real estate should not be sold.
That is, from this year ago, the upsurge of monetized shed reform began to fade slowly.
By 2020, the “13th five year plan” of the shed reform will come to an end.
In 2021, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development stipulated that large-scale demolition and construction are prohibited in urban renewal, and new shantytowns are not allowed to be reconstructed in the name of urban transformation.
This year, only 1.2 million units were allowed in the shed reform plan proposed in the government work report.
This is the general trend of real estate de stocking since 2015.
Now, the inventory pressure of real estate has come up again. I have already described the current pressure.
Therefore, the local government began to think about changing the shed.
This time, instead of monetization, it would be so troublesome to issue house tickets directly, so that those who have been demolished can directly take the house tickets to buy those commercial houses with high inventory pressure.
This not only allows people to live in new houses, but also helps real estate developers remove inventory, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone.
Therefore, “room ticket” is back in the Jianghu.
In fact, Zhengzhou is not the first city to launch room tickets. The reason why it has attracted attention is that there are so many things happening in Henan recently. A little bit of action will naturally be on the news.
According to incomplete statistics of surging news, since this year alone, at least Zhengzhou, Henan, Yixing, Jiangsu, Kaifeng, Jiangsu, Nanjing, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, Zhangjiagang, Longgang, Haining, Jinhua, Ezhou, Lishui, Ningbo, Wenling, Xuchang, Henan, Shaowu, Jiangsu, Jiangyin, Anhui Jieshou, Changshu, Henan, Xinyang, Henan Yibin, Sichuan and other 20 cities explored and implemented relevant “room ticket” resettlement policies.
If the above has your city, you should keep the long picture below.
Seeing this, you must understand why the room ticket is back in the Jianghu. This is the context.
So, will the housing ticket restart the real estate market, just like in 2015, and start a new round of property market boom?
Here, I can clearly tell you, No.
The reason is very simple. Because the room ticket is based on the shed reform, the scale of the room ticket cannot exceed the scale of the shed reform.
This is the concept of a set. The room ticket is a subset. The room ticket
Just now, the prime minister said in his government work report this year that there are only 1.2 million shed reform plans.
What does that mean?
It means that CDB will only lend 1.2 million units.
The plate is only so big. Whoever pays is the core. In fact, CDB is the core of the shed reform.
Therefore, no matter how the local government tries to find a way, it can not jump out of the scale of 1.2 million units in the end.
This is the policy set by the central government. Of course, local governments hope that the larger the scale of the shed reform, the better. However, it will be restricted in the end.
So, to sum up, is the room ticket useful?
It is indeed useful, but it will not play a big role. It will only bring excitement to the market for a while, but it will not substantially change the current overall trend of real estate.
The era of soaring property market has passed.
It has really passed. Whether you want to admit it or not, you must understand this reality.
When the times abandon you, they won’t say goodbye.
Finally, give all buyers a suggestion.
Now the market is in an impasse, and the price reduction can not be reduced. Many places have limited price reduction orders. If they want to buy, they can’t buy. Because everyone always thinks that the house price will continue to fall, so everyone is tense.
If one day, after all these price fixing measures have been withdrawn, when the real estate enterprises begin to exchange price for volume, the transaction of real estate will inevitably begin to rise.
Even, driven by this, house prices will rise for a period of time, and the real estate market in some places will begin to appear short-term hot.
But it’s all fake fire.
When all the purchasing power accumulated in the past few years has been consumed, when the real estate developers began to blindly expand their inventory.
That is when real estate really returns to normal.
It is also the best time to buy a house at the most reasonable price when the house can not be sold.
Therefore, you should be very careful during this period of time. Do not be fooled by some real estate market we media and some real estate agents.