Russia and Iraq will kill the ultimate trick, and the dollar will accelerate its decline!

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Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668

The dollar looks really strong!

At present, the Federal Reserve is in a period of crazy interest rate hikes, and the dollar index has soared, even approaching 110 for a time. The dollar index has risen from the level of 90 in June last year to the current level close to 110. It has to be said that the level of financial trading in the United States is very high, and the monetary hegemony of the United States is very strong. The United States released at least $6trillion of liquidity in a little more than a year before last June, and then immediately raised interest rates, but it can still accelerate the flow of global capital into the United States, and promote the sharp rise of the U.S. index. This trading ability and financial and monetary influence are unmatched by any country in the world.


The dollar index has reached a 20-year high. How did the United States do this? In fact, in addition to the crazy interest rate hike, the core is that he provoked the war between Russia and Ukraine. The outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine directly led to the crazy flight of capital from Europe. Just as the US dollar index approached 110, the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar also fell to the level of 1:1. The last time the euro was hit to this level was just after its birth, the United States invaded the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and dismembered it to hit the euro below 1 dollar. In the next 20 years, the euro has never been less than 1:1 against the dollar, but it once fell below 1:1 a few days ago.

According to the current situation, with the advance of the Russian Ukrainian war, when the Russian army takes Kiev and continues to push westward, the euro will probably continue to fall sharply, and may even fall to its lowest point in history, that is, one euro can only be exchanged for a little more than $0.8.

According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), this war may not be a disaster in Europe in terms of security, but it will be a disaster in terms of economy. With the decline of the euro exchange rate, its purchasing power around the world will decline significantly. Not only does it need to spend a lot more money to buy energy, but it will also spend more money to buy other goods, which will lead to imported inflation for Europe. In order to curb its inflation, the United States will raise interest rates fiercely in the future. In addition, the war between Russia and Ukraine will be more and more fierce. In order to avoid risks, funds will continue to flee from Europe, and the exchange rate of the euro will continue to fall.

Therefore, to some extent, the Russia Ukraine war is a conspiracy of the United States, a conspiracy to split the relationship between the European Union and Russia, a conspiracy to promote the new cold war, and of course, a conspiracy to economically cut meat from Europe. With the Federal Reserve sharply raising interest rates and the compromise between China and the United States, inflation in the United States will ease to a certain extent, but inflation in Europe will continue to be high, and the EU inflation rate is likely to exceed 10% in the future. To put it bluntly, the United States dumped its own inflation to Europe in the form of war.

The most unlucky countries in Europe are the central and Eastern European countries. Because of the sharp fall of the euro, the price of goods purchased outside the European Union with the euro has increased. However, the European Union is an integrated market, and the internal price has not increased. The low-end industries in the European Union are mainly in central and Eastern Europe, which means that they will lose the most. This is a typical Western jungle law – big fish eat small fish, small fish eat shrimp!

In the current situation, besides Ukraine, the EU is now the biggest loser. In fact, as long as Russia survives this most difficult period and wins Ukraine, Russia will be the winner of this game, because it has obtained Ukraine’s land, industry and population, which are the most important resources in the context of the current big power game. Whoever has more resources will have stronger endurance. Objectively speaking, if Russia can digest these occupied resources well, Russia will strengthen itself rather than weaken itself through this war. Of course, the premise is that Russia has to digest well.

For China, as long as it does not promote the new cold war, China will be the winner, because China holds the strongest manufacturing industry in the world. China will not lose much from the war, but will have subsidies in other aspects. For example, high oil prices do make it more expensive for us to drive and refuel, but our trade surplus has reached a record high. In general, our country has made more money. The money earned must be distributed internally, and everyone must be profitable.

More importantly, China’s status as a great power will be highlighted, and China’s influence as a great power will be accelerated. For example, the recently exposed China will likely sign an economic security agreement with the Pacific countries. If it were not for the United States to launch the Russia Ukraine war, the United States to launch the COVID-19, and the United States to make trouble everywhere, the Pacific countries would probably not realize that cooperation with China has so much benefit to them so soon. You can look at Sri Lanka recently. The country went bankrupt directly, and the president ran away. Imagine that if Sri Lanka and China sign an economic security agreement, China will appropriately transfer its import and export orders to them at this time, and the country will not go bankrupt!

However, this kind of thing is more than enough. If the Russian Ukrainian war continues to evolve into a new cold war, it will be detrimental to China in stages; If it does not evolve into a new cold war, it will be beneficial to China. For the United States, this is not to say that it is all beneficial. In the short term, it is conducive to the United States’ will to unify Europe, and it is conducive to the United States to cut the meat of Europe to make up for itself. But in the long term, it has weakened the authority of the United States as a great power, and the little brother it claims to protect has been eaten by Russia, and the United States dare not take action. As for the dollar, everyone will see the United States more clearly, and all countries will gradually consider giving up the dollar or reducing the proportion of the dollar in trade and foreign exchange reserves.

For example, Russia and Iran are ready to give up dollars in bilateral trade. According to the Russian satellite news agency on the 18th, Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian President, said that Moscow and Tehran are reliable friends and partners with regard to the visit of Russian President Putin to Iran. He said that the two countries will gradually abandon the practice of using dollars to evaluate the volume of bilateral trade. The total economic and trade volume between Russia and Iran is about $4 billion. Although it is not much, the decision of the two countries to abandon the dollar is only the beginning.

For Russia and Iran, it is obviously more difficult to obtain dollars in the international market due to U.S. sanctions, but they also need dollars to shop in the world, so it is very necessary for them to save their dollars, and the way is to replace them with one currency. Now, it is obvious that the two sides have not found a particularly good alternative, because the euro is also volatile, and the RMB is not so stable. The better way is to exchange currencies between the two sides, and then settle in local currency. However, as the exchange rates of both sides fluctuate as well, we have to quickly change into local currency after settlement. Although the transaction cost is higher, it is better than getting into trouble in the future.

Moreover, various signs show that Russia is planning to establish an “oil alliance” that can compete with OPEC, because OPEC is likely to continue to withdraw, and Russia is likely to establish an alliance similar to OPEC with some Middle East countries, so as to enhance Russia’s influence on international oil prices.

The demonstration effect of Russia will eventually make more countries leave the global economic system centered on the United States. For example, some countries will definitely consider using their own currencies in the trade between the two countries, or using other currencies for the convenience of trade. For example, as long as Sri Lanka fully accepts RMB as its trade currency and reserve currency, China can use RMB to expand its investment in Colombo port, so that Sri Lanka can obtain RMB, and then Sri Lanka can use RMB to buy Chinese goods, so as to maintain the operation of domestic economy and people’s livelihood. China has the world’s largest market, the world’s largest manufacturing industry, and enough capital. As long as it joins the trade security system centered on China’s economy, it will be economically safe. Even the United States need not be afraid, because it has begun to avoid the dollar in the economic and trade system.

Why does China look to small Pacific countries for an economic security system? To ensure the safety of a small country? It’s just for the world to see that China can not only eat meat but also live and work in peace and contentment, and small countries may perish with the United States. Even the European Union and Japan, for example, will inevitably be swallowed up. As the saying goes, when relevant countries see the bitter consequences of living with the United States and the good days of living with China in contrast, the bitter days of the United States will come, and everyone will have more motivation to abandon the dollar!


In fact, the reason why the United States dare not tear its face with China is that it is worried that China will completely side with Russia. But if the United States forces China to that, if China wants to follow the Russian routine with relevant countries, the good days of the dollar will come to an end!

Of course, that will also cause great losses to China, because the dollar is a quasi world currency after all, which will affect normal economic and trade exchanges and the global industrial chain supply chain, but relatively speaking, it will have a greater impact on the United States. At that time, it will be fighting for blood, who is afraid of who! Of course, before that time, China is still scheming, and it is still more than enough to deal with the conspiracy of the United States at this stage!

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