Author: north wind source: Beifeng Xuelin (ID: Beifeng Xuelin)
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, global energy prices have skyrocketed. In particular, the European Union has become the most miserable party outside Ukraine since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
On the contrary, Russia, which has been criticized by the west, is getting richer and richer in the “protracted war” against the background of soaring energy, resource and ore prices.
In the past six months, under the pressure of the United States, Europe has tried its best to punish Russia and assist Ukraine.
However, within the EU, there is still a “voice of reconciliation with Russia”. Their voice is not loud enough because the energy crisis in Europe is not “forced to the end”!
On August 19, Gazprom announced that the last turbine of Beixi No. 1 natural gas pipeline will be overhauled, and the gas will be shut down for three days from August 31!
Every turbine overhaul before and after Beixi No. 1 was “delayed” for several months. Is this really only “three days of gas stoppage”?
The script of the official announcement “three days without gas” looks familiar~
First, the turbine game of Russia, Europe and Canada!
In June and July this year, a turbine nearly tore apart the “anti Russian alliance between the EU and Canada”.
The cause of this incident was that in June, a turbine broke down on the No. 1 Beixi gas pipeline from Russia to Europe.
The turbine is made in Germany. Anyway, Russian natural gas is just needed by Germany, so Russia is not afraid of German damage to the turbine, so it sends the turbine to the German manufacturer for maintenance.
However, in the past few years, Germany’s high-end manufacturing industry “has long been globalized”. After the core components of the turbine made in Germany were damaged, it could not be repaired in Germany and could only be sent to Canada for repair.
After Germany transferred the turbine to Canada in June, Canadian enterprises repaired the turbine quickly, but the Trudeau government detained the turbine.
After the G7 countries announced all-round sanctions against Russia, Canada, as the running dog of the United States, has always wanted to make a difference.
However, Canada does not check and balance Russia’s financial industry and energy market. What Canada can do is to export oil and gas resources.
It is not only Russia’s “just need”, but also Russia’s competitor.
Due to the lack of “economic exchanges”, Canada has been unable to make a headlines in the direction of “sanctions against Russia”.
The Trudeau government was immediately excited when it discovered the repaired turbine and knew that it was an essential “core component” of the Russian natural gas export pipeline.
The Canadian government immediately withheld the turbine in the name of “reducing Russia’s energy export income”, believing that this was in line with the spirit of G7 energy sanctions against Russia.
In July, Gazprom saw that the turbines had not been shipped back. You said, “reduce my energy income?”, Then I’ll cut the supply by half.
The “natural gas supply cut by half” of beixi-1 to the European Union is not reduced from 100% in previous years to 50%.
However, after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as a counter measure against the EU sanctions against Russia, the gas supply of Beixi No. 1 has been reduced to 40% by Russia.
This time, due to the maintenance of the turbine, the gas supply was reduced from 40% to 20%.
Because of the reduction of gas supply, Germany sent the deputy prime minister to Russia to “ask for gas”, and Russia did not give any commitment to Germany.
As for Canada’s sanctions, Russia’s “energy export income is reduced”?
After Russia cut its gas supply by half, the price of natural gas in Europe more than doubled, and Russia earned a lot of money.
In the end, only the European manufacturing industry led by Germany was injured. When Europe was short of natural gas, it was also forced to “restrict industrial gas to protect people’s livelihood”. As a result, Germany experienced a historical “trade deficit” of two quarters.
Germany has always been the global flag of European manufacturing and selling. This manufacturing trade deficit is a wonder that has not appeared for decades.
The G7 summit was held in Germany at the end of June this year. Of course, Canada, a G7 ally that “pinches Germany’s neck”, was targeted by the German people’s demonstrations.
After Trudeau returned to Canada, he could only seek to “help the turbine bypass the sanctions imposed by the Canadian government on Russia”.
“The Canadian government helped the Russian turbine to circumvent Canada’s sanctions against Russia”, this extremely awkward news headline, is the result of the game between Canada, the European Union and Russia over this turbine in June and July.
After Canada returned the turbine to Germany, Germany did not return the turbine to Russia at the first time, but hoped to reach an agreement with Russia on “stable increase of natural gas supply after receiving the turbine”.
Agreement? Then we don’t want this turbine!
At the end of July, after Germany received the turbine, Russia proposed a shipment. After Germany said that it would negotiate a later agreement, Russia did not “request to ship the turbine”.
As a result, the No. 1 natural gas pipeline in Beixi, Germany, is equipped with the only turbine to supply 20% of the gas to Europe.
On August 19, Gazprom announced that the turbine could not be carried. From August 31, the gas supply was stopped for three days.
That is, at this critical juncture at the turn of summer and autumn, Europe will face Russia’s “cut-off”.
It’s just time. Is it really three days?
II. The “watershed” of EU assistance to Ukraine
Russia and the European Union have been playing games over the price and supply of natural gas in the past six months, but they have been fighting without breaking!
Then why did Russia choose to “cut off” Europe’s gas supply at this time?
Is it because the EU’s assistance to Ukraine has reached a “new height” that Russia has suffered more?
Not at all!
But in the past month, the EU has not provided any new assistance to Ukraine.
This is a month that has greatly surprised the western media.
The EU’s military and economic assistance to Ukraine has been regarded as “politically correct” for more than half a year.
However, according to Western media, since mid July, European countries have not announced any new aid to Ukraine.
In addition, the EU has only paid US $1 billion in the “US $9 billion loan assistance” promised to the Ukrainian government in the first half of the year.
In Germany, there are two other landmark events.
One is German Chancellor Scholz, who only dared to “very tactfully” express his intention to compromise with Russian Putin.
Recently, Scholz has publicly expressed his intention to meet Putin and discuss a solution to the Ukraine crisis.
Another landmark event is that the official media of Germany are increasingly reporting “negative news of Ukraine”. The Zelensky government is no longer the “holy soldier of defending the country” described by the German media, but has also become an evil regime that “fights with the demons” of Russia.
The “public opinion turn” of the German media is a landmark event, because more than 70 years ago, the United States initially provided military and economic assistance to the “Jiang family dynasty” for many years.
When the new US government came to power and wanted to stop providing military assistance to the “Jiang family dynasty”, the US media began to report extensively on the “corruption of the Jiang family dynasty” and the military and economic assistance being used to enrich their own pockets.
The Jiang Dynasty was also the “ally of common values” advocated by the United States.
When the US government wanted to “turn its policy” and abandon the mainland regime of the Chiang family dynasty, the “turn of public opinion” began to expose that the “negative news” of the Chiang family dynasty was a conventional routine.
This time, the German official media began to pull the “Zelensky government from the altar”, which is to pave the way for the next stop of military and economic assistance!
Since Germany has released the two signals that it wants to meet Putin and “razelensky goes down to the altar”, should Russia loosen the restrictions and increase the supply of natural gas to Germany?
Why did it further “cut off supply”
Because Germany shows a “turn signal”, but it is still arrogant in the face of international public opinion.
In the face of the media’s question, “will Germany consider restarting Beixi No. 2 because the gas supply of Beixi No. 1 is reduced due to the failure of its core components?”
In the face of this problem, Germany can completely “fuzzy respond”, but the official response of Germany is “restarting Beixi II is not considered at this stage!”
“Beixi No. 2” was promoted by Russia’s Putin and Germany’s Merkel in the past decade or so under the tremendous interference force.
Today, Germany shows a “soft signal”, but it is still tough on the core appeal of Russia’s “Beixi No. 2”.
You’re tough not to think about it?
When you are “without gas”, do you still consider it?
There is no gas available. When people go to the streets, can Germany still carry it?
Three, “three days without gas”, who is touching who is crossing the river?
The use of natural gas in Europe has formed a “law” for many years, that is, EU countries store the natural gas supplied in summer to cope with the “reduction of natural gas supply in winter”.
Therefore, the whole Europe has been “storing natural gas” in the summer. If Russia only cuts off the supply for three days, it is impossible to cut off the gas supply in Europe.
However, the key point of this year is that Russia has been supplying gas at 40% of the supply in the whole summer. Many European countries have insufficient natural gas in summer, so there is no way to store natural gas for winter.
What’s more, Russia has repaired turbines for several times in the past, and each time the impact on gas supply exceeded several months. This time, it is said that the maintenance of turbines only requires “three days of gas shutdown”?
Is the official announcement of “three days without gas” really three days?
What if “relevant reasons” occur during the turbine maintenance process, and the extension of “three days and three days of gas shutdown” is required?
It is feared that EU countries will continue to use the natural gas stored for this winter from September.
What about this winter?
Referring to the model of “three days and three days without gas”, many friends first thought of the deterrence military exercise of “three days and three days without gas”.
Many people feel that the hairy bear is crossing the river by touching our country.
However, whether this measure of “pinching the EU for just three days and three days” can really make the EU “completely turn” in the Russian Ukrainian conflict is worth observing.
The semiconductor industry chain led by TSMC in Taiwan island of China accounts for 65% of the global semiconductor supply.
China’s “impoverishing Taiwan” measures against the puppet regime on Taiwan island have not started with the chip industry.
We completely allow the semiconductor industry led by TSMC to occupy an “increasingly important” position in the global supply chain and an increasingly irreplaceable proportion.
When that day comes, while quickly controlling the whole territory of Taiwan Island, we must control the global supply chain of semiconductors on Taiwan island as soon as possible.
At present, the semiconductor supply chain led by TSMC accounts for only 65% of the world’s total, accounting for more than 90% of the supply of advanced electronic equipment in Europe.
This time, the United States asked Europeans to “kill Russia even if they have no energy use”. This kind of control makes us “lose hope” for the EU’s position in the future conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
However, if Russia’s “three-day and three-day” supply cut-off can make the European Union wake up from the halo of “Virgin Mary”, starting from “European media will pull Zelensky down from the altar”, it shows that the European Union can wake up from “Virgin Mary’s disease” in the face of the survival crisis.
Therefore, if this “Russia’s three-day and three-day gas cut-off” is successful, it can become a new experience for us to feel the “hairy bear” crossing the river in the future reunification of the Taiwan Strait!
Our “lock Taiwan military exercise” in the Taiwan Strait is three days, yesterday, today and tomorrow. Launch at any time according to needs and provocations!
Russia’s “natural gas cut-off” to the EU is also three days, summer, autumn and winter.
Why does Russia not consider cutting off its gas from the EU next spring?
Because this winter, Europe without gas will sacrifice Zelensky!