Author: vertical and horizontal source: planting flower city (ID: hqsycn)
Several things have happened in the past two days:
On September 2, the G7 issued a joint statement agreeing to impose a price ceiling on Russian oil and petroleum products.
On the same day, European Commission President von der Leyen said that Europe needs to set a price ceiling for Russian pipeline natural gas.
As soon as the voice fell, Russia announced: “the natural gas transportation of the Beixi pipeline has been completely stopped!”
The most worrying thing happened in Europe.
Although on the surface, the reasons for the gas cut-off announced by Russia are “oil leakage”, “turbine maintenance”, and so on, in fact, everyone knows that it is a strong counterattack against the price ceiling set by Europe for Russian energy.
Judging from this round of confrontation, Russia has the upper hand at present. If you set my price, I will cut you off directly to see who can consume who.
The reason why Russia has the upper hand is that Russia has no European market, and the impact is not particularly great. But without Gazprom in Europe, it will be very painful for a certain period of time. Today, the price difference of natural gas in Europe has reached more than 10 times, and it may reach more than 20 times by the end of the year, which is terrible for people’s livelihood.
From these confrontations, we can roughly see the following signals:
1. Russia’s current situation is OK
Confrontation between Russia and the United States – on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield, Russia controlled the situation, although it failed to achieve destruction.
In the face of the bouncing bombs in the East, Russia is conducting a military exercise of 50000 people in 13 countries. The military exercise site is also selected on the “four northern islands” in the disputed territory between Japan and Russia. The Chinese and Russian navies meet directly in the sea of Japan.
In the confrontation between Russia and Europe, Russia has taken the initiative in energy, food and other issues, and Europe is suffering more.
This actually confirms what the author said earlier. Before the war between Russia and Ukraine, the author analyzed that Russia had better not use the sword lightly, but if it really has to, as long as there are two major markets, China and India, Russia can be invincible. Now, these phenomena have gradually emerged.
2. Russia will also experience pain in the future
In fact, there is a very strange phenomenon. The Russian Ukrainian war is only a matter between Russia and Ukraine. At most, it is only a confrontation between Russia and the United States. Why should Europe bleed so much and make itself so painful?
We should know that Europe is experiencing high oil prices, especially the price difference of natural gas has reached more than 10 times, and it is likely to be more than 20 times after winter. One ship of natural gas delivered by the United States to Europe can make a net profit of $100 million. While making Ukraine fight to the last drop of blood, it is also draining the last drop of blood in Europe. As long as Europe does not participate in the sanctions against Russia, these situations can be alleviated immediately. But why does Europe not hesitate to let its own blood bleed and also confront Russia? Is it really to cooperate with the United States?
There is only one explanation. Compared with the existential threat, the others are secondary.
Russia’s size is too large. Just as France and Germany are powerful countries, their size is only the relationship between elephants and chickens. These European countries always have a natural fear of Russia. For this reason, once they have the opportunity, they will weaken Russia at all costs, and it is better to defeat Russia.
It is obviously impossible to defeat Russia, but it is feasible for the west to build Russia into a second Iran through energy, so that its energy has no market, no energy and no land to sell, and weaken Russia by attacking Russia’s economic artery.
? G7 video screenshot
In the short term, compared with the more painful Europe, Russia is fearless and even has advantages. But in the long term, under the break between Russia and the west, Russia will also have a painful period, which may reach about 10 years.
3. The third world will eventually rise
The author has always held the view that the Russian Ukrainian war is a contest between Russia and Ukraine at a small scale, a confrontation between Russia and the United States at a middle scale, and a confrontation between the third world and the west at a large scale.
This is because the West generally supports Ukraine, while the third world mostly supports Russia. Although there is no direct military assistance, the high oil price is an obvious example. If we really want to kill Russia, we only need to make energy prices cabbage prices. Without economic support, it will be difficult for Russia to support.
However, no matter how the United States exerts pressure, if OPEC + does not increase production, maintaining high oil prices is equivalent to indirectly supporting Russia; Other developing countries, such as India, import a large amount of Russian energy, which in turn provides Russia with a steady stream of war funds.
At present, Russia not only has the advantage of the Russian Ukrainian battlefield, but also does not lose in the confrontation with the west, and even occupies a certain advantage (Europe is more painful).
From a broader perspective, the west is now engaged in a new cold war against China and Russia. In the past, they were able to win the cold war because the West had technological advantages in the rapidly developing new technology and occupied the advantage of productivity. But now, revolutionary new technology has not yet appeared. Even with the existing technology, the west can not lead by a large margin. Their magic weapon in the past has disappeared. I don’t believe they can win again.