This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin
Russia issued an ultimatum, and a new fierce battle began.
For Russia, it was a revolt with a knife to its neck. Russia was very angry and the consequences were very serious; For Lithuania, this is the continuation of the strangulation of Russia. I have a backer behind me. I’m afraid you can’t do anything.
Yes, Russia and its neighbor, who hates Russia the most, are in trouble again.
But considering the background of the Ukrainian crisis, the situation is continuing at a breathtaking pace.
Lithuania was the first. According to the order of Lithuania, the transport channel between Russia and the enclave Kaliningrad will be blocked from June 18.
Lithuania’s reason is to implement the EU ban on Russia. All Russian prohibited substances are not allowed to transit.
So what is illegal capital?
According to the EU ban, Russia’s coal, steel, construction materials, etc. are not allowed to enter the country. In other words, about 50% of the goods from Russia to Kaliningrad cannot pass through Lithuania now.
Aiming at Kaliningrad this time, Lithuania should also see Russia’s weakness.
Kaliningrad is an enclave of Russia. It originally belonged to East Prussia of Germany. After World War II, it was ceded to the Soviet Union in accordance with the Potsdam Agreement. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kaliningrad, which belonged to Russia, was isolated on the Baltic Sea, bordering Lithuania and Poland.
Kaliningrad and the Russian mainland now have three main channels, one is the underground oil and gas pipeline, one is the railway channel through Lithuania, and the other is maritime transportation.
Now Lithuania has started the most important railway transportation. Maybe one day, Lithuania will dig three feet and cut off the Russian oil and gas pipeline to Kaliningrad.
Russia is naturally furious.
On June 20, the Lithuanian charg é d’affaires A.I. in Russia was called to the Russian Ministry of foreign affairs, and was scolded as a bloody dog. Russia accused Lithuania of “violating international obligations” and “openly hostile acts”.
Why do you say that?
Russia’s explanation is that Russia has an agreement with Lithuania and the EU. For example, in 2002, when Lithuania wanted to join NATO, Russia reached an agreement with the EU to ensure the freedom of transit transport, taking into account relevant transit issues.
Lithuania and the EU, what about your spirit of contract?
Putin’s spokesman Peskov warned that the situation is not just serious. Lithuania’s decision is really unprecedented and violates everything.
According to the Russian media, Russia has issued an ultimatum. If Lithuania has not taken action to resume transit transport, don’t blame Russia for being rude.
Why was the charge d’affaires of Lithuania summoned instead of the ambassador?
Very simply, after the Ukrainian crisis, Lithuania and Russia have expelled each other’s ambassadors.
Although a small country, Lithuania is a neighbor with the strongest anti Russian sentiment. In addition to sending a large number of weapons to Ukraine, Lithuania has also cut off oil, natural gas and electricity trade with Russia. Lithuania has also become the first EU member to completely cut off Russia’s energy imports.
Behind Lithuania is the EU and NATO.
Then Russia will settle with the EU. The next day, Russia, still angry, summoned the EU ambassador to Russia Ederle and continued to scold.
Interestingly, Lithuania also immediately asked the Russian charg é d’affaires (please note that there is no Ambassador) to “clarify”: Lithuania implements the EU sanctions decision, and Russian personnel or goods that do not violate the ban can still pass.
what do you mean?
The meaning is also very clear.
1. It is not Lithuania that wants to make trouble, but we implement the EU ban.
2. Grievances have their heads and debts have their owners. If Russia wants trouble, go to the European Union.
3. EU, whether to lift sanctions or not, I just listen to you.
It can be said that the European Union is the perfect candidate.
But the wording of the EU is also very subtle.
The vice president of the European Commission, Valdis donbrovskis, said that he had telephoned Lithuanian President nowseda on the matter. Then he said: the EU is collecting relevant information. If Lithuania is indeed implementing the EU sanctions, it is obvious that we need to stand with the member states implementing the sanctions.
what do you mean?
1. The EU does not know that Lithuania implements the EU ban.
2. If the ban is really implemented, the EU can only stand with Lithuania.
3. It is estimated that in the heart of the European Union, there are also 10000 grassland animals galloping by. Lithuania, you really don’t think it’s a big deal.
But things have happened. The most important thing is what to do next?
If Lithuania does not compromise, Russia will certainly retaliate. Diplomatic actions are meaningless, because the worst is to expel the charg é d’affaires ad interim and sever diplomatic relations between the two countries. However, for Lithuania, it is not very destructive.
The one with great lethality does not rule out two possibilities.
The first is to block Lithuanian ports.
If you cut off my railway transportation, I will send a fleet to blockade your port. Don’t forget that Kaliningrad is the headquarters of the Baltic Fleet, one of the four major Russian fleets.
In this strategic enclave, Russia has deployed a large number of weapons. Now, let’s deal with Lithuania.
Russia must still have scruples against the United States and the European Union, but against Lithuania, Russia cannot be weak, or there will be endless trouble.
The second one is Lithuania.
If the blockade is not enough, force will not be ruled out. The reason is always easy to find. Anyway, it must be luoshengmen again. Lithuania said that Russia had invaded, and Russia said that Lithuania had provoked, but as a result, both sides started to work.
What will be the consequences?
Anyway, it makes people take a breath.
Lithuania can certainly not carry Russia, but Lithuania is a NATO country after all, and NATO faces difficulties. If they dare not take action, Russia will see through the true face of NATO and will not hesitate to take action; If NATO does take action, it means that the international pattern will be overturned again.
But if Russia really gives up, anyway, I have nuclear weapons. What should the United States, the European Union and NATO do?
In this world, people are afraid of being shocked. One crisis ignites another crisis. The countries that ignite the crisis are still giggling. However, they do not know that a big country is being pushed to the edge of a cliff and the disaster of extinction is really coming.