Author: vertical and horizontal source: planting flower city (ID: hqsycn)
The news of Russia’s “great rout” came out these two days.
According to Ukrainian news, Ukrainian troops have stormed into key towns such as ikum, baralya and kupyansk, recovered more than 30 regions and more than 2000 square kilometers of land, seized a large number of Russian weapons and logistics materials, and suffered heavy losses. It is also rumored that “Lieutenant General Andrei, commander of the Russian western group army, is suspected to be captured.”.
The Russian side said that this was the active withdrawal of the Russian army to achieve other operational purposes, and that the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses in the exchange with the Ukrainian army.
? video screenshot of Russian Army
Both the Ukrainian side and the Russian side publicize in the direction that is beneficial to them, and it is difficult to distinguish the true from the false. However, according to the information from all sides, one thing is basically certain, that is, Russia has indeed lost control of some areas in the Kharkov direction, and they have returned to Ukraine.
As for whether it was the loss of the Russian army, the strong attack of the Ukrainian army, or Russia’s initiative to give up due to tactical adjustment, or even Russia’s luring the enemy in depth, it is difficult to judge according to the current information.
Here are a few points to talk about.
Russia faces some troubles
Before the war began, the author once said that Russia should not lightly use its swords. If it has to, it should not set its strategic goals too high. It should fight and withdraw as quickly as possible. The reason is that Russia risks falling into the quagmire of a long-term war.
The United States has the need to drag Russia into a long war, and Ukraine also has the desire to recover lost land. Once Western weapons are combined with more than 40 million Ukrainians, they will constantly attack Russia. Even if Russia announces an armistice now, Ukraine will continue to attack eastern Ukraine and even Crimea. It is easy for Russia to start a war, but it is not the Russian side that has the the final say in ending the war.
Two days ago, on September 8, Antony Blinken made a sudden visit to Kiev without even bringing the reporter. He talked with Ukrainian foreign minister kuleba for only more than 30 minutes, which was very short. All these added mystery to Antony Blinken’s trip, and there were many speculations in the market. In the author’s opinion, it is likely that the United States sent Blinken to Ukraine to investigate and study, prepare for the next stage of the Russian Ukrainian war, and try to make the Russian Ukrainian war permanent.
Russia also has another problem. The more areas it controls, the longer the front, and the more troops it needs to defend. This means that the strength of the single point defense force will be reduced, and the number of troops used for attack will also decrease, which gives Ukraine the advantage of concentrating its superior forces to attack one point. This is probably the reason why Russia and Ukraine in part of Kharkov changed hands this time.
Ukraine also has a magic weapon to win
As for Ukraine, the author has also said many times that it is almost impossible to win Russia through positive hard fighting. There is probably only one magic weapon for Ukraine to win, that is, “protracted war”.
Although Ukraine faces weakness in military strength, it is not without merit. It also has many “advantages”.
On the one hand, popular support is available. From the perspective of Ukraine, the Russian army has openly invaded its own territory. It has the justice of defending the country, counteracting the invasion and recovering the lost land, and the popular support is available.
Second, the United States can be used to kill Russia for a long time
So as to obtain a steady stream of assistance from the West. If we combine our own large numbers of people and combine them, we can form a lasting battle.
Third, Russia has its own weaknesses. On the one hand, as mentioned above, when the line of control of the Russian army is too long, weaknesses will emerge, and Ukraine can form superior forces to attack Russia’s weak points;
Fourth, the Russian side is not afraid of a protracted war, but it is also afraid of a protracted war. It is said that it is not afraid because Russia has energy, grain and other resources, and it will not be afraid of fighting for a long time; It is said that it is afraid of a long war because Russia’s opponent is not Ukraine. It wants to participate in the struggle for supremacy between big countries such as China, the United States, Russia, Europe, Japan and India. It has spent too long with Ukraine and even fought for 10 or 20 years. In the end, it can’t even see the heels of others, which is strategically unfavorable to Russia.
Ukraine can make good use of these factors.
Russia needs to attack Ukraine in an all-round way
Why Russia did not launch a full-scale attack on the Ukrainian battlefield, but played it lukewarm? Earlier, the author had a guess, that is, Putin was watching the situation in the East. Once China and the United States started to fight in the direction of the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, the Russian Ukrainian battlefield would immediately become a secondary contradiction.
In order to win the contest between China and the United States, the United States will certainly let go of Russia first and even win over Russia, so that Russia can offer a good price to Ukraine and the United States to win.
Now it seems that there will not be a major change in the East for the time being, but Russia is facing some problems, and some “advantages” of Ukraine will also appear (as mentioned above), which requires Russia to change the current blunt knife to cut meat, and to “kill chickens with ox knives” to launch an all-round attack on Ukraine and make a quick decision.
Sun Tzu’s art of war says, “it’s not easy to hear about weapons, but it’s not easy to see them.”