Russia violently attacked Ukraine, but why is it “no problem” for Finland and Sweden to join NATO?

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Author: vertical and horizontal source: planting flower city (id:hqsycn)

As Turkey’s obstacles have been removed, NATO member states have officially agreed to invite Finland and Sweden to join NATO on the 29th local time, and the two countries will sign the “accession” protocol no later than July 5.

In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on the same day: Russia is right

There is “no problem” for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, and there are no territorial differences between Russia, Sweden and Finland like Ukraine.

The original words are like this, “there are no problems like Ukraine between us and Sweden and Finland. We have no territorial differences… There is nothing to worry about Sweden and Finland joining NATO. If Finland and Sweden are willing, they can join (NATO). It depends on them. They can join whatever (Organization) they want to join.”

? Putin video screenshot

Putin’s statement is meaningful. Why does Russia prohibit Ukraine from joining NATO, but ignore Finland and Sweden?

There are roughly two possibilities:

One is that Russia is helpless

That is, Russia has no choice but to prevent Finland and Sweden from entering the treaty.

It was originally planned to fight a war for only two weeks. Now it has been fighting with Ukraine for more than four months, and there is no dawn of the end of the war. At this time, Russia is unable to start another war. This is the root of Lithuania’s daring to block Kaliningrad and Finland and Sweden’s full speed promotion of joining NATO during the window of the Russian Ukrainian war.

If Russia carries out greater war mobilization, it is not impossible to fight Lithuania, Finland and Sweden, but it will fall into another trap set by the United States – multi line consumption of Russia. Obviously, Russia cannot do such a thing.

The Western containment is intensifying; The war between Russia and Ukraine has become a tug of war. With more than 40 million Ukrainians and Western blood transfusion, Ukraine will continue to attack Russia; With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Lithuania’s demonization means that one hole in Russia is not completely blocked, and the other three are coming out again; Even Kazakhstan, a member of its ally JIS, opposed it in front of Putin… In fact, the security environment in Russia has worsened. (this is the reason why the author did not support Russia to launch a war before the war and believed that Russia would not launch a war under normal circumstances.)

Putin constantly changed the front-line commander in chief, and even dvornikov, who played well, was dismissed. It is likely that he is dissatisfied with the slow progress of the war, and the sooner the war ends, the better.

To a large extent, the reason why Russia and Ukraine fought was that both sides misjudged – Ukraine overestimated western support and unlimited provocation, and Russia overestimated its own military strength. Due to the smooth fight against Georgia earlier, the smooth fight in Syria, the easy fight against Ukraine in 2014, and the dispatch of troops to counter the rebellion in Kazakhstan at the beginning of this year, Kazakhstan has done a good job and can be called a classic; Because he didn’t notice that there was no interference from other forces in these beautiful battles in the early years, he overestimated his own military strength and thought that it would only take two weeks to win Ukraine this time. As a result, after the war, with the strong intervention of the west, things became not so simple, and Russia could only continue to move forward without hesitation.

If before the war, Ukraine estimated that it would be destroyed by others, and Russia expected that the war would not be completed in four months, it would probably not be solved by military means. Russia has many means to deal with Ukraine, and military means is precisely the way that should not be used first.

Therefore, under the above circumstances, Russia will not and cannot launch a new war, and can only accept the fact that Sweden and Finland join NATO, even though their joining NATO is far more harmful than Ukraine.

Second, Russia doesn’t care

In the first case above, the narrative line of Russia – the description of counterattacking the eastward expansion of NATO is also the narrative line used by the mainstream public opinion.

However, the author has always speculated that Russia’s fight against Ukraine was not for NATO’s eastward expansion, but for expanding its territory under this excuse. The so-called “counterattack against NATO’s eastward expansion” and “go Nazi” are just an excuse for its fame.

The reason is also simple:

First, the main force of the United States moved eastward to the Asia Pacific, and at this time, it was unable to look west at Russia. In order to avoid losing both sides with Russia and thus unable to contain China, the United States would not and did not dare to fight hard with Russia, which was a heaven sent opportunity for Russia.

Second, if Russia really solves the security threat, it cannot be indifferent to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

Once Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the border between NATO and Russia increased by more than 1300 kilometers; The window of Russia’s rise, the Gulf of Finland, will be locked from the north and south ends; The Barents Sea, the base of Russian nuclear submarines, will also face NATO for the first time; Geographically, NATO clamped Russia from the East, northeast and Southeast; NATO launches missiles from Finland and Lithuania to Moscow only three or two minutes more than it takes off from Ukraine. If it is a hypersonic missile, there is only a difference of dozens of seconds, and they are much closer to the Russian city of St. Petersburg than Ukraine It can be seen that Finland and Sweden joining NATO is much more harmful than Ukraine

If Russia really cares about security threats, it is impossible not to solve the problem of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

And it is best to solve it before fenrui joins NATO. Once they join NATO, Russia will target NATO members, which will be much more difficult and risky. However, it makes no sense that Russia cannot tolerate Ukraine to join NATO, but turns a blind eye to Lithuania, Finland and Sweden, which are much more harmful.

Third, Russia said that the demilitarization and Nazism of Ukraine had been completed, but it still did not stop, constantly attacked eastern Ukraine, and even launched the third stage of military operations to attack Odessa, Kharkov and other places. If this was not Russia’s “one-stop, two-stop”, it was that Russia said the goal was false at the beginning.

Fourth, not to mention that Putin has made it clear a few days ago that his idol is Peter the great. In the past, he expanded the territory of Russia, and now it is their turn (the current Russians);

Just this time, Putin once again stated that Russia “has no problem” with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, because there are no territorial differences with these two countries like Ukraine. The meaning of this statement is to solve the “territorial differences” with Ukraine, which is actually to expand its own territory through Ukraine. (the border between Russia and Ukraine has been set, and there are no territorial differences. If every country traces its historical territory, the world will be in chaos.).

This confirms the author’s conjecture again.

The narrative line currently used mostly provides Russia with the “counterattack against NATO’s eastward expansion”, which is only considered from the perspective of Russia. If you change the perspective, it may also be an excuse for Russia to expand its territory. Including the reference to “Neo Nazis”, which is also the narrative method provided by Russia. In other words, no country will be soft on separatism, and will directly exterminate “China” without reasoning. Ukraine will naturally make decisions in the face of Ukrainian separatist forces. So it’s hard to say whether there is really Neo Nazis or whether Ukraine is a necessary means to maintain territorial and sovereign integrity. The so-called “de Nazism” may also be just an excuse for Russia to become famous for expanding its territory.

If it is this logic, if the real purpose of Russia’s fight against Ukraine is not for security issues, but for territorial expansion, then Russia doesn’t care about Finland and Sweden joining NATO.

Which of the above two situations is it? It doesn’t care whether Finland and Sweden join NATO at all or whether Russia is unable to prevent it. Only Putin and his executives know that the outside world can only wait for time to tell the answer.

Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Finland and Sweden (non Soviet members)… Are all debts of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Later, we should think deeply about governing the country!

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