Author: Xusheng Source: Xusheng (official ID: lxlong20) has been authorized to reprint
Why is it said that the Ukrainian war is related to the national destiny of Russia?
This question is not difficult to understand. In fact, each war is related to the national destiny, and the difference is only in different degrees. But in the Ukraine war, Russia was in danger of national fate.
01 National Transportation
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s national fortunes were stagnant and hovering in the valley. The economic and cultural influence is weakening; Politics and economy are eating the Soviet Union; Even the population is sluggish.
In Yeltsin and Putin’s first phase (before 2008), Russia’s main strategy was to integrate into the West and strive to turn Russia into a member of the western developed countries. It is embodied in three aspects:
1? The Russian market was open to the West, and the industrial system other than military industry in the former Soviet era was abandoned.
2? Russian energy and resources are supplied to the West at preferential prices.
3? Yeltsin and Putin successively applied to join NATO.
However, the West did not accept Russia (see why the West refused to accept Russia?), Or do not know how to accept Russia; Instead, it promoted several rounds of NATO’s eastward expansion, not only absorbing the members of the Warsaw Pact, but also the former Soviet Union (the three Baltic countries). Now NATO’s tentacles have penetrated into Ukraine, Georgia and Central Asia in all directions, and Russia is basically forced into the corner.
When it was determined that the West would not accept itself, Russia began the traditional way of fighting back.
1. In 2008, Russia sent troops to Georgia, defeating the attempts of Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO. You are right. Ukraine wanted to join NATO in 2008.
2. In 2011, the West wanted to bring down the Assad regime in Syria according to the Libyan model. As the Assad government has good relations with Russia, it is the pillar of Russia in the Middle East; So Russia took a strong step to save Assad.
3. In 2014, the United States again carried out color revolution in Ukraine. Putin simply did not do anything and did not stop. He directly swallowed Crimea under the pretext of imitating the “Kosovo model” (which is not true, because Kosovo was not engulfed by other countries); It is equivalent to stabilizing Russia’s access to the Black Sea.
4. In February this year, Putin recognized the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republic; And signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. This action is equivalent to directly tearing Ukraine into two parts. Of course, this is still the “Kosovo model”, which is very similar to Kosovo before it swallowed up two places.
But so far, Putin’s strongest action is to launch the Ukrainian war. Of course, the banner of this time is to follow the “Iraq model”. The excuse for the United States to attack Iraq is that there are weapons of mass destruction there; Russia’s excuse for attacking Ukraine was that there were neo Nazis there.
The essence of Putin’s launching the Ukraine War is actually to change Russia’s national destiny. Decades of the disintegration of the Soviet Union have proved that Russia can neither integrate into the West nor become rich and powerful through economic construction. Its traditional and skilled mode of changing its destiny is reform and war.
As for reform, there are both successful cases of Peter the Great’s reform and failure cases of Gorbachev’s reform. However, because of the great controversy over Gorgonbach’s reform, it is difficult for Russian politicians to rally the hearts of the people through the banner of reform.
Then there is only the mode of war. And Putin is too old to do anything. In addition, NATO’s aggressiveness and Ukraine’s lack of political wisdom gave Putin an excuse to start a war.
02 Three goals
As I said before, Putin launched the Ukrainian war with three major goals (demilitarization is all smoke bombs).
Low level target: recover the core assets lost by the Soviet Union.
The two core areas lost in the disintegration of the Soviet Union are the Black Sea Azov Sea resource belt and the Caspian Sea energy belt. If these two places are not lost, Russia will occupy a more important position in the international oil, natural gas, coal and even steel markets.
You can see that the Russian army’s offensive situation is basically along the coast of the Black Sea – Azov Sea on both sides of Crimea. In fact, it is running for the resources there.
The medium level goal is to bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.
Ukraine’s importance to Russia is self-evident.
First, from the perspective of territory and resources. Ukraine’s Black Land is one of the granaries in the world. If it controls the Great Plains of Ukraine, it will greatly improve its position in the world food market. Especially in the wheat, steel and coal markets, Russia and Ukraine account for half of the global village.
Secondly, from the geostrategic perspective, controlling Ukraine will not only make the Caspian Sea a Russian inland sea, but also completely control half of the Black Sea; Russia’s power can extend directly through Romania to the Balkans and the Pote Plain.
Third, in terms of spirit, Kiev is the place where Madame Dongsla is thriving. Kiev means a lot to Russians. In accordance with the consistent style of the Russian army, once deployed, they will not leave without firing a shot, unless the city is Kiev.
High level goal, take the voice of the rules of the global village game.
Many countries in the global village have had their own glory, and have the complex of pursuing national rejuvenation. For example, Iran’s great power complex is the Persian Empire, Saudi Arabia’s is the Arab Empire, and Turkey’s is the Ottoman Empire.
The Soviet Union is the superpower that the global village collapsed recently. In the cold war era, the Soviet Union and the United States were opposed to each other and had a great say in most areas of the global village. The Soviet Union is only 30 years away from now.
The elites who now rule Russia are all left over from the Soviet era. Putin himself was the KGB elite of the Soviet era. The public opinion circles described him as the lone brave man who silently carried out secret tasks and was loyal to the country and commitments: “Davalish, you are the last KGB agent of the Soviet Union. Your last task is to protect Russia. There is no superior, no support, no time limit, only you…”
If Russia wants to achieve the high-level goal of regaining the voice of the Soviet era in the global village, it must do at least two things: break up NATO and bring down the US dollar.
Therefore, from this point of view, Russia’s attack on Ukraine is said to end the unipolar hegemony of the United States and the empire; In essence, Russia wants to raise the anti American flag. This ideal is relatively full, but in reality, it is still more skinny; Because the Russian army fought in an ordinary way.
03 Weird Battlefield
As all friends who are concerned about the international situation know, at the beginning of the war, the Russian army quickly attacked Kiev and assumed a posture of all-around attack and taking Ukraine at one stroke. At that time, Ukraine was very flustered, and the United States even suggested that Zelensky should go into exile in the West.
Later, as time went by, Russia did not attack Kiev, but chose to withdraw its troops and focus on the Donbas area. At that time, the offensive and defensive war in Mariupol was very lively.
This summer, both Russia and Ukraine were in a state of seesaw, which made all parties very tired, and even the gourd eaters felt tired.
However, in September, the Uzbek army gained an advantage in some local battlefields. The Russian army lost three strategic key cities in just a few days: Baralleya, Kupiansk and Ijm. These places are responsible for connecting the logistics and transportation hubs of the Russian army. Their loss meant that the Russian army suffered setbacks on the northern route. The explanation given by the Russian army is that it is adjusting its strategic offensive direction; The Ukrainian army declared a major victory.
The situation on the battlefield has gone from bad to worse, and the exhausted public opinion circles are excited again.
It is not difficult to understand the reasons for the change of the war situation:
1. The United States is overweight. On the one hand, Ukraine’s various equipment, training and funds are increasing; on the other hand, Russia is publicly humiliated, such as not granting visas to Russian personnel who go to the United Nations for meetings, such as setting humiliating guidance prices for Russian crude oil.
2. Ukraine itself is tough. Public opinion circles in the global village often say that Russia is a fighting nation; In fact, Ukraine and Russia are the same nation. Through a long time of contact, the Ukrainian army gradually adapted to the Russian military’s operational mode, and it was also a home court operation. In addition, with the assistance of the United States in place, it is normal to gain advantages in local battlefields.
This change in the war situation is not good news for Russia, which means that it is increasingly difficult for the Russian army to achieve the three major goals. High level goals (regaining the voice of the global village) and medium level goals (bringing Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence) are basically difficult to achieve, while low level goals are relatively difficult.
At the same time, the United States is stepping up its attacks on key infrastructure in Ukraine. The largest thermal power plant in Ukraine, the fifth thermal power plant in Kharkov, experienced explosion and fire. Before, Russia was reluctant. Now, with the stalemate of the war situation and Ukraine’s gaining some local advantages, Russia is trying to frighten Ukraine and the West by expanding the scope of attack.
In essence, the Russian army is not fighting against Ukraine, but against the entire NATO. Although NATO did not appear in name, its information, weapons, funds and even mercenaries were all in place.
At this point, you may have some doubts about what the West, led by the United States, wants to do? The answer is very simple. They want to control the national destiny of Russia.
04 American Chess
As mentioned earlier, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s national fortunes have been fluctuating at a low level. The Russian elite represented by Putin also wanted to bring the Russian country forward. They tried to integrate into the West before but failed, so they chose war under the pressure of the West step by step.
However, the West hopes that Russia, which was originally in a low position, will continue to fall.
What do you mean? For the United States and Britain, Ukraine is a chess game they play. From color revolution to overthrow the pro Russian government, to temptation for Ukraine to join NATO, they are actually stimulating Russia to start “The United States and Britain Are Tempting” and drag Russia into the quagmire of Ukraine for a long time. The template they refer to is the war in Afghanistan.
Looking back at the turning point of the Soviet Union’s national fortunes, a key factor was the war in Afghanistan.
Before the war in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union ruled by Brezhnev was at its peak, and even the United States began to engage in war and contraction. The largest military exercise ever conducted by the Soviet Union in 1981 made the West tremble with fear.
However, as the war in Afghanistan fell into a quagmire, the Soviet Union’s finances fell into crisis and national fortunes began to reverse. Later, Gorbachev came to power to start the reform and disintegrated himself.
Now Britain and the United States hope to drag Russia to Ukraine, let Russia continue to bleed, and then let Russia go down. There are two key points in the British and American chess game:
1. It is hoped that Russia’s financial collapse, like that of the Soviet Union, will lead to another disintegration.
2. I hope the leaders after Putin will be close to the West. You may wonder why Britain and the United States would bet on the leaders after Putin? In fact, there is a very interesting rule in the East Slavic people: naive people are easy to appear after strong leadership. For example, Stalin was strong, followed by the naive Khrushchev. For example, Brezhnev was strong, followed by the naive Gorbachev. Putin’s strength is not inferior to Brezhnev and Stalin. After him, Russia is likely to have naive leaders again.
British and American elites and Mrs. Dongsla have played games for thousands of years, and they know each other very well. So while the United States and Britain are using Ukraine to consume Russia, they are also planning for the future, which is the breathtaking complexity of the international game.
If we know more about the world history, we will find that the British and American elites have been studying the national character of countries around the world; Similarly, Russian elites are also studying the national character of various countries in the world. This is the basis for the United Kingdom, the United States and Russia to be able to manoeuvre in the global village for hundreds of years. But this time in Ukraine, Britain, the United States and Russia, one side will eventually be seriously injured.
05 Game
The Ukrainian battlefield itself is only a microcosm of the international game.
For the United States, the more profits it makes in Ukraine, the more it has the impulse to create another Ukraine in Asia. Then there will be a lot of turbulence around China.
