Author: Kafka is busy Source: outsider’s horizon (ID: hooyar_380097485)
Recently, everyone is busy paying attention to the epidemic situation, and no one pays attention to the major events in Russia.
In fact, there is a big problem with the rouble settlement system. For example, in India, the third brother is very clever. When you told him to settle in roubles, they offered a handful of rupees. The question is what can you buy in rupees?
The total value of Russian energy purchased by India is much higher than that of the goods imported from India by Russia, so this is equivalent to a large surplus of rupees in trade. Just look at the integrity of the third brother. The huge balance of foreign debt is a trade deficit every year, and rupees are taken back as trade surplus. Isn’t that a big loss?
And because the ruble exchange rate is actually distorted, the so-called large appreciation depends on the fact that Russia can only import and export dollars. Although the high exchange rate set by the Russian Central Bank has reduced the domestic CPI, it also causes new problems in the external settlement of the ruble.
The third brother who likes to take advantage thinks that the exchange rate of Russia is too high. In addition, Sunak became the Prime Minister of Britain, which made the third brother have many new associations. With some collusion, the third brother finally reduced his energy imports to Russia.
Recently, Russia, on the one hand, said to Europe and the United States that it wanted to return to SWIFT, on the other hand, it was selling fertilizer in the form of RMB settlement with Brazil.
Many fans were overjoyed at the sight and thought it was a landmark event of RMB internationalization.
Don’t underestimate the strategy of the Russians. They have developed from a remote small tribe in a cold place to the largest country in the world today, not by pure force.
To put it bluntly, we should bear hardships and stand hard work by bluffing, bluffing and various tricks. Hehe, that is not in line with national characteristics.
Today, when we look at the history of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union have not done little to ally up and harm others.
Russia is not particularly friendly to its former brothers, and it is also quite afraid of the development of the the Belt and Road to the west. The China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Railway has been planning since 1997, until 2022, when Russia was comprehensively sanctioned by the international community during the Russia Ukraine war, Putin had to relax his consent.
At the Collective Security Organization Summit held in November, Putin tried to prove to his brothers that he could still fight as the leader and continue to be the bodyguard of his brothers. However, all the brothers except Belarus expressed a little opinion on this.
Recently, on the one hand, it seems that the international community has increased sanctions against Russia; on the other hand, it is reported that Russia is in private contact with the United States to discuss negotiation conditions.
It’s a pity that Biden won the mid-term election by a large margin, which made him energetic. In order to protect his family’s interests, we should certainly talk about it, but the conditions for negotiation will only be more stringent.
In order to increase his leverage, Old Biden relaxed the oil sanctions against Venezuela. In order to make Biden face up, Venezuela held a dialogue between the government and the opposition. As long as the government and opposition representatives started negotiations, they could not use the name of democracy to sanction Venezuela. This means that Venezuela’s oil will soon return to the international market.
Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, but its quality is not very good. It is all heavy oil, but it is better than cheap. American refineries in the Gulf of Mexico love this kind of crude oil. The oil refined here can be supplied to the United States to maintain the local cheap oil prices.
In 2017, Trump came to power and began to impose economic sanctions on Venezuela in order to support the oil price in the United States and protect the interests of American oil exploration enterprises. Iran was also subject to sanctions at that time.
According to the Associated Press on November 26, after years of sanctions significantly reduced the oil and gas profits flowing to the Maduro government, the US Department of Finance allowed Chevron to “limited” resume energy production in Venezuela. Earlier this year, the US Treasury once again allowed Chevron and other US companies based in California to perform basic maintenance on the oil wells jointly operated by Chevron and Venezuela Oil Company.
In fact, before the results of the mid-term elections, the sleeping king did not dare to go too far. After all, the strength of the oil barons is there. Now that he wins, he has no scruples. By releasing Venezuela’s production of 3 million barrels per day, Europe can be forced to completely decouple from Russian oil after December 7.
Of course, the United States has taken a small step. The next step depends on the reaction of the Russian side.
The card issued by Russia is the RMB settlement of fertilizer exported to Brazil, which is equivalent to directly inserting a knife in the back garden of the United States. Brazil has newly elected a left-wing leader, Lula. This elder brother is a famous anti liberal leader in South America. Although he is not as outspoken as Chavez, he will certainly make the United States very uncomfortable when he comes to power. Anti liberalism is essentially against the disorderly expansion of American capital in Brazil. Of course, the old Lula is not a fool. After being put in prison for several years by the Americans, he will certainly deal with the relationship with the United States based on pragmatism when he comes out to work in politics. However, Brazil is certainly willing to participate in the game of great powers to increase his leverage.
In the exchanges between countries, there is no lack of feelings. Each other’s interests are paramount. The sudden friendship may use you as a shield and an excuse.
Among the interests of the United States, the interests of the United States dollar are paramount. Since Russia set up a ruble settlement system, it is tantamount to poking a hornet’s nest in the interests of the United States dollar. Because Russia has a single industry, it has no special advantage in the global trading system. As for the credit of the ruble, hehe, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ruble has been in turmoil. There has been a currency crisis every once in a while. No country is willing to accept the ruble unless it has to.
Among all currencies in the world, the biggest advantage of the US dollar is to act as a wealth collector. Thanks to the strong capital market of the United States, when wealth is tied to the US dollar, the world will be directly flattened by the US dollar.
Even without the Russia Ukraine war, the euro cannot shake the status of the dollar. Because the euro and the dollar have the same monetary connotation, but Europe is not unified, so its financial attributes lack strong endorsement of national power. A loose euro area can launch a financial war against a country at random, which can lead to such a big event as the European debt crisis.
In fact, only the RMB is qualified to be a competitor of the US dollar, because behind the RMB is China’s huge productivity. We are the world’s largest trading country, the world’s largest producer, and we are the only country with a full industrial chain. This means that you can basically buy all kinds of goods with the RMB. What’s more, China’s biggest trouble now is overcapacity.
The function of currency is to act as a general equivalent in commodity exchange. From this perspective, the US dollar is not as useful as the RMB.
After the swift system was put forward in Russia, the best way is to simply have a comprehensive RMB settlement, but others do not.
Over the past few months, I have often seen the daily life records of some Russian bloggers on the Internet. At present, the majority of goods in the Russian market are from Europe and the United States. What we thought before is that under the so-called sanctions, Russia has broken its ties with Europe and the United States and turned to the east. In fact, it is too optimistic.
In US dollars, the total trade volume between China and Russia in the first 10 months of this year reached US $153.9385 billion, up 33% year on year. We should know that the Sino Russian trade increased by 35.9% last year. If the factor of energy price rise is deducted, the actual data is lower than our estimate.
Therefore, it indirectly shows that it is a good idea to rely on Russia to instigate the internationalization of the RMB. In the geopolitical game, Chuanbao initially conceived that the United States and Russia should form an alliance to contain China. Unfortunately, the Cold War faction has established countless interest groups by making Russia an imaginary enemy. These groups are most afraid that Chuanbao will actually disband NATO in case of madness, and directly cooperate with Russia, so they have a Russia gateway.
Biden certainly did not dare to touch the cake of the Cold War faction. After all, his precious son made a lot of profits in Ukraine. If he really betrayed the interests of the Nazis, he might be subjected to crazy retaliation. It is impossible to retaliate against Biden. It is easy to retaliate against Biden. Now the House of Representatives has been captured by the Republican Party. Do you think he is afraid?
Now things are in a bit of deadlock. It is difficult to talk about peace talks between Russia and the United States. The United States is now able to play the Venezuelan card, so that international oil prices have recently experienced another correction.
The fall in energy prices is not a good thing for Russia.
In fact, the third brother, who is expected to have high hopes, does not want to offend Europe and the United States. The so-called “not taking advantage of too much” is just an excuse. Don’t forget, once the Russian Ukrainian war starts, it is not said to stop. The modern war is a bottomless pit that burns money. Since August this year, Russia has been in a financial crisis. The war is about money and food. If we have no money, we can only frighten people with nuclear deterrence, and also play knitting?
Let’s take a look at Yishui’s jaw dropping high-tech cutting-edge weapons at Zhuhai Air Show. They are not too powerful to show. They can be shown to you and you can buy them. What if in the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia could be listed? Can ukraine survive until now? The so-called “big kill tool” Haima is not enough to look at. In this way, Da Mao is still being beaten. What do you think of it?
Putin said that Russia’s trade crisis had turned to a new market. In fact, he was more expressing a threat to frighten Europe and the United States. If he did not give in, he would play for real. This in turn showed that he had not given up his fantasy. A person who really wanted to fight would not talk so much. He would roll up his sleeves and open his sleeves.
The so-called “hot politics and cold economy” actually means to take precautions. It should not be a big problem to replace most European and American products with the powerful ones made in China. Why not?
No matter how friendly it is, in fact, no one wants to have an overly powerful neighbor, because in addition to shelving disputes, there have been many disputes since ancient times.