Author: Uncle Ming Source public account: Uncle Ming Zatan WeChat ID: laomingdashu
For the Chinese people, the China US game is a just struggle against hegemony and containment.
A major challenge China faces in the Sino US game is that the United States has never fought alone in containing, suppressing, containment and vilifying China, but has been fully mobilizing, utilizing and constantly expanding the entire “hegemony system” established after World War II.
If China wants to “break through” in the Sino US game, it can also not rely on fighting alone.
Many people have realized that in the game between China and the United States, China needs to give full play to the wisdom of the “united front” formed by the Communist Party of China in various struggles in history, and throughout the world, “make more friends and fewer enemies”.
China needs to establish an anti hegemonic united front in the vast Asian, African and Latin American regions, and finally implement a broader and higher level strategy of “encircling cities from rural areas” in the world geopolitical pattern, so as to break through the containment of American hegemony and successfully realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
In today’s world, when China has to fight against the entire “hegemonic system” dominated by the United States, who is China’s friend? Who is the basic market that China can rely on?
If we understand the upcoming SCO Summit in Samarkand, the historic city of Uzbekistan, from this perspective, we will have a different historical depth.
If we take a look at the development history of SCO, we can see that the number of its member states has increased, its international influence has increased, and its strategic value to China has also increased over the past two decades.
On December 25, 1991, the Soviet Union disintegrated and the Cold War ended completely.
In 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was officially established. This is the first major international organization named after a Chinese city. Its members include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
In 2017, the SCO formally accepted India and Pakistan as member states.
At the Samarkand Summit, Iran will officially become the ninth member of the SCO.
The next country most likely to join the SCO has been relatively clear: Belarus, which is inextricably linked with Russia.
In addition to the full member states, Mongolia and Afghanistan are observer states of the SCO; Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Nepal are SCO’s dialogue partners.
It is reported that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar may also become dialogue partners of SCO at the Samarkand Summit.
Since its establishment, SCO has played at least three core roles for China:
——In terms of security, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, China and Russia joined hands with the SCO to integrate Central Asia, which is conducive to preventing American forces from interfering in Central Asia. At the same time, the SCO member states’ cooperation in combating the “three forces” of terrorism, extremism and separatism is of great significance for China to maintain the security and stability of Xinjiang;
——In terms of development, China and SCO member states have continuously strengthened practical cooperation to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. China has obtained important export markets and sources of raw materials such as energy through SCO;
——Strategically speaking, after China put forward the “Belt and Road” cooperation initiative in 2013, SCO member states became the key countries for China to implement the “Belt and Road” initiative.
In 2022, SCO will enter its third decade. There is no doubt that the SCO’s core role in China in the past two decades will continue.
At the same time, in the next decade, we also need to think about what role the SCO can play for China when the China US game has become the most significant factor in the international environment that China faces? What role can it play? What is the value?
We can see from the above figure that SCO has become the most effective “handle” for China to integrate the geopolitical pattern of the Asian mainland, and the Central Asia, South Asia and West Asia regions currently and in the future covered by SCO are the strategic “rear areas” that China can never lose in the Sino US game (this figure is for reference only, Taiwan Province of China is not included in SCO).
China can play three roles in integrating “Greater Asia” through the SCO: first, in terms of security, other SCO member states will not become a threat to China; Second, economically, other SCO member states can fully enjoy the real benefits of China’s market, capital and technology when conducting practical cooperation with China, and realize the deep binding of economic interests between these countries and China; Third, in terms of diplomacy, other SCO member states will not at least stand on the side of the United States to participate in curbing China in the context of the China US game, and may even slightly favor China on issues such as Taiwan, Xinjiang, the South China Sea and the East China Sea where the United States may launch “attacks” against China.
From the geopolitical perspective, in the Sino US game, China has two “big rear areas” that cannot be lost:
The first “big rear area” is Southeast Asia, which is also the place that the Biden administration of the United States has tried to fight for since taking office. But in the past few decades, China has cultivated deeply here, and has established profound economic, trade and investment relations with all Southeast Asian countries. The current situation is not wrong. However, the United States has been “inducing” Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines. The bottom line for China in the future is still that the United States cannot build an anti China “base” in Southeast Asia, and the United States cannot find help to encircle and contain China in Southeast Asia;
The second “rear area” is Central Asia. If the United States instigates a “color revolution” in Central Asia and supports anti Russian and anti Chinese governments that are pro Western, it will pose a serious challenge to the security of western China. The establishment of SCO has, to some extent, prevented American forces from entering Central Asia, but some Central Asian countries still have fantasies about the United States. In the future, China should take preventing American forces from intervening and preventing the United States from threatening China in the geopolitical pattern of Central Asia as an important goal.
Therefore, like ASEAN, SCO has extremely important strategic value in China’s efforts to break through the geopolitical containment, encirclement and blockade of the United States.
In addition, after Iran’s admission to the SCO, China can also launch a preliminary “strategic offensive” against the United States in the Middle East through the SCO.
After Iran joins the SCO, it will obtain a certain degree of security assurance, which will make the United States, which has never dared to attack Iran militarily, more afraid; At the same time, Iran has further expanded its economic and trade cooperation with China, Russia and other member countries within the SCO, and has found a feasible way to achieve economic and social development under the sanctions of the United States and other western countries.
In the future, if the SCO further expands to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, even Bahrain and Syria, it will form a situation that frightens the United States very much – as the United States implements its strategic “withdrawal” from the Middle East, China and Russia will take the SCO as the “handle”, gain greater influence in the Middle East, and really may fill the “vacuum” left by the United States.
For China, if the SCO can be further integrated into the major powers in the Middle East, it will also have important strategic value for China to ensure energy supply from the Middle East and deal with the extreme sanctions that the United States may impose on China in the future.
In order for SCO to play a greater strategic value in the context of the China US game, China needs to think clearly about several things:
First, in the context of the China US game, China can consider giving SCO greater strategic value. Like ASEAN in the past few decades, China should manage the SCO well and strive to make it a basic platform for China to rely on in the China US game. Through the expansion of the SCO, China should further break through the strategic encirclement of the United States and expand China’s circle of friends and influence in the international community;
Second, China can play a bigger and more crucial leading role in the SCO, taking full account of the comfort level of Russia and other SCO member states. Traditionally, Central Asia is Russia’s “sphere of influence”. Before the Russian Ukrainian conflict broke out, Russia had doubts about China’s greater role in the region. After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, Russia broke away from the West completely, which in fact made it possible for China to play a greater role in the region. The joint efforts of China and Russia to make the SCO bigger and stronger will help the two countries jointly cope with the containment and suppression of the United States;
Third, we should properly handle India’s position and role in the SCO. India’s accession to the SCO is certainly a good thing for China. However, due to the border dispute between China and India, and India’s strong strategic defense and resistance to China, there is still much work to be done to make India embrace the SCO willingly. In this regard, Russia has a unique role to play. As India depends on Russia in terms of energy and weapons, and there is no real border dispute and psychological “Yu Liang Complex” between India and Russia, India is more acceptable to Russia. In addition to giving play to Russia’s role of “pulling” India, China can also help India settle a strategic “account” as soon as possible. On the surface, the US containment of China is beneficial to India, but in fact, it fully shows that the US will not accept any emerging power challenging the US global hegemony. If the United States succeeds in containing China, the next target that the United States must deal with is India. At that time, India has no chance of winning without the support of Russia and China. More frankly, if the United States continues to dominate the world, it will sooner or later attack India; If China successfully realizes the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, China is very willing to maintain a major country relationship with India featuring mutual respect, win-win cooperation and equal consultation. It is not difficult to choose India;
Fourth, on the issue of SCO member state expansion, we should be proactive and prudent. If China wants to build the SCO into a basic platform that China can rely on in the China US game, it should not take too much account of the feelings of the United States. In the future, North Korea, Syria and other “hostile countries” of the United States can apply to join the SCO. For China, it is more conducive to forming a united front against US hegemony within the SCO by absorbing some countries that are dissatisfied with the US, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to join the SCO. On the contrary, we should be cautious about countries that are inextricably linked with the United States joining the SCO. If the interests and positions of member states differ too much, the organization will be loose and formalized;
Fifth, while deepening the SCO member states’ cooperation in security, development and strategy, we should also avoid the alliance of the SCO, especially the military alliance of the SCO, so as to avoid the risk of being kidnapped by a member state in the future and falling into conflict, or even war in advance;
Sixth, China can build a “model project” through the SCO to provide other countries in the world with a better choice than “relying on American hegemony”. Both countries are actively striving for the support of third countries in the world. For other countries, whether they choose to contain China with the United States or support China against American hegemony depends fundamentally on which strategy the country adopts to more effectively safeguard its fundamental interests. China can build the SCO into a “new model” for international and regional cooperation, so that other countries can see that joining the SCO can not only guarantee security, but also rely on development. In particular, China can use its market, capital and technology to create prosperity and benefit the people. I believe that this has certain attraction for any country.
To put the China US game on the world stage, the winner or loser lies in whether China or the United States can bring more security and development opportunities to other countries? Who can provide more useful public goods for the international community? Who can provide other countries with a development path and model to achieve national independence, national prosperity and people’s happiness?
It is expected that China will provide a new and better choice to other countries and people in the world through the SCO.
It is only for reference.