Author: Tanzhu source: official account: Yuyuan TanTian wechat id:yuyuantiantian

On June 13 local time, Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee, met with Sullivan, assistant to the president of the United States for national security affairs, in Luxembourg.

Just three days before the meeting, Chinese and US defense ministers held talks during the Shangri La dialogue.

Such frequent multi-level contacts have aroused special attention. In particular, China US relations are at a critical crossroads. Looking back, it is a series of wrong acts of the US government that have blocked or even interrupted the normal communication channels between China and the United States.

Now, it is not too late for the Biden administration to make changes. However, the United States may have miscalculated in trying to accumulate advantages by testing China’s bottom line in this process.

China is bound to completely break the illusion of the United States.

In the face of the accelerated evolution of the game pattern of major powers, to understand this meeting and the general trend of China US relations behind it, we must start with these seven key points.

Timing: the diplomatic guidance of the head of state is highlighted

The meeting time itself has many observation angles.

This meeting is only three months after the video call between the heads of state of China and the United States on March 18 this year.

Three months ago, in a video call, the heads of state of China and the United States agreed that both sides should strengthen communication and dialogue at all levels and in all fields.

After 61 days of video call by the head of state, Yang

Jiechi held telephone talks with Sullivan.

87 days after the head of state made a video call, Yang Jiechi and Sullivan held a meeting in Luxembourg.

In these three months, the Chinese and US defense ministers also talked by telephone and held offline talks, the first time since the Biden administration took office.

These exchanges and dialogues are the implementation of the important consensus reached by the two heads of state.

The communication between the two heads of state plays a directional role in China US relations.

Under the guidance of the diplomacy of the head of state, in addition to the high-level diplomatic officials of China and the United States, China and the United States also held some dialogues in the military, climate change, health, agriculture and other fields in the first half of this year:

On April 22, Chinese ambassador to the United States Qin Gang and U.S. ambassador to China burns jointly attended the China US high level seminar on agriculture;

On May 26 and June 1, China’s special envoy for climate change Xie Zhenhua met with Kerry, the special envoy of the US president on climate issues, twice a week to exchange views on China US climate cooperation.

If we can talk, it means that both sides are willing to control differences and avoid miscarriage of justice, as mentioned in the press release:

Both sides believe that it is necessary and beneficial to maintain smooth communication channels.

This is very important for China and the United States.

Although there has been a positive trend of change, there is still a long way to go before the overall improvement of China US relations.

Diaodaming, a researcher at the national development and Strategy Institute of Renmin University of China, told me that compared with the previous US government, the exchanges and communication between China and the United States have objectively recovered and improved. However, the key to the resumption of these dialogues is whether the U.S. should strategically change some negative positioning towards China or just to maximize its own interests.

The evaluation criteria are also simple. Has the US implemented the “four no’s and one no intention”. Obviously, some people on the US side have not implemented the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, nor have they implemented President Biden’s positive statement.

This is also the crux of the current situation in China US relations.

Yang Jiechi also pointed out at the meeting:

The US side should correct its strategic understanding of China, make a correct choice, translate President Biden’s “four no’s and one no’s” statement into practical action, walk with the Chinese side, and earnestly implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state.

Location: looking at equivalence through distance

The venue of this meeting, Luxembourg, is also worth reading.

As a founding member and core member of the EU, Luxembourg has created many “firsts” in its interaction with China:

In the words of the Grand Duke of Luxembourg, although Luxembourg and China are different in size, they have always had good relations with each other and have a high level of cooperation in trade, investment, finance and other fields.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Luxembourg. The key to China Luxembourg relations withstanding the test of the international situation lies in the mutual respect, mutual benefit and win-win results of both sides.

This is both a reference and a reminder for China US relations, the most complex pair of major country relations in the world at present:

Communication and interaction must be based on reciprocity.

Since the Biden administration came to power, four high-level meetings between China and the United States have been held in third-party European countries.

The distance between these countries and China and the United States is roughly the same – Luxembourg is no exception.

Diao Daming told me that Luxembourg has long adhered to the principle of equality in its foreign exchanges and major country relations, actively promoted dialogue among all parties, maintained good relations with both China and the United States, and was impartial to both countries.

When talking about Luxembourg, the US side should also understand the profound meaning behind this place.

Thinking set: seeing Sullivan through words and deeds

At this meeting, the US representative was Sullivan again.

I mentioned that, as the national security affairs assistant to the president of the United States, Sullivan was able to make suggestions to the president on topics related to national security.

So, did Sullivan understand what the two heads of state said? From his public statement, we can see that Sullivan still knows something.

In his meeting with the Chinese side in March this year, Sullivan reiterated the one China policy;

During the meeting, Sullivan also stressed the importance of maintaining open communication channels and controlling competition between the two countries.

However, if we want to turn our position into action, we must overcome the huge resistance – the inherent thinking set of American politicians.

This is a live photo of the meeting. The first one on the left is Sullivan. Sitting next to him is Campbell, coordinator of Indian Pacific Affairs of the US National Security Council.

Wuxinbo, Dean of the Institute of international studies of Fudan University, told me that as early as 2019, Sullivan and Campbell published an article in the foreign affairs magazine, saying that the United States should first rely on investment to strengthen itself, and then compete with China by contacting allies and playing the value card.

The so-called new “trilogy” of the current US policy towards China -“

Investment, alliance and competition “is the shadow of Sullivan.

In addition, Biden’s diplomatic team is a complete “circle of acquaintances”, which leads to that they always formulate and implement policies according to the established “group thinking”, highly agree with each other, and it is not easy to correct the deviation from the inside.

However, even the New York Times has expressed concern about the relationship between the Biden administration and other superpowers in the world with a zero sum thinking definition under this “group thinking”.

The United States should really be worried, because making a wrong choice requires paying a price. If the mistake continues without being corrected, all serious consequences will be borne by the United States.

China has put the most serious consequences before the United States. If the United States wants to pretend to be deaf, it will only deceive itself and others.

Focus: determination through issues

During the meeting, the Chinese side warned the US side:

Do not have any misjudgments or illusions on the Taiwan issue.

Since the beginning of this year, the United States has repeatedly violated its commitment to adhere to the one China policy on the red line of Taiwan related issues.

First, American politicians kept trying:

In early April, Speaker Pelosi of the US House of Representatives staged a farce in which she was tested positive for her new crown before making a trip to Taiwan;

Biden made another “slip of the tongue” during his visit to Japan, claiming that the United States would take military action to intervene in the Taiwan issue, which was subsequently clarified by the White House.

Shaoyuqun, director of the Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao Institute of the Shanghai Institute of international studies, told me that in the press release released by the White House during the meeting, there was no mention of the Taiwan issue, but a discussion on “a series of regional and global security issues”, which showed that, on the one hand, the Biden administration did not have a clear understanding of the harm of its continuous promotion of substantive relations between the United States and Taiwan, on the other hand, He is still trying in vain to take control of the so-called “status quo” of cross-strait relations.

In response to this great concern of the United States, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry made it clear:

Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. China enjoys sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait, while respecting the legitimate rights of other countries in the relevant sea areas.

It is also clear that the Taiwan Strait is not what the United States calls “international waters”, and the United States cannot use this as an excuse to split China.

Compared with the Rome meeting between Yang Jiechi and Sullivan three months ago, the statement on the Taiwan issue in the press release of this meeting has two changes:

The first is a new expression:

The Taiwan issue concerns the political foundation of China US relations. If it is not properly handled, it will have a subversive impact. Not only does this risk exist, but it will continue to rise as the United States pursues “using Taiwan to control China” and the Taiwan authorities pursue “relying on the United States for independence”.

China can clearly see the American routine. Warning against the dangerous trend of this act is not only a reminder to the United States, but also a revelation to some people in Taiwan.

The second is the change of wording:

During the China us meeting in Rome on March 14, 2022, China mentioned:

The Chinese side demands that the US side recognize the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue and abide by the one China principle, the provisions of the three Sino US joint communiques and the commitments made by the US side.

During the China US Luxembourg meeting on June 13, 2022, China mentioned:

The US side should not have any misjudgments or illusions. It must abide by the one China principle and the provisions of the three Sino US joint communiques, and must carefully and properly handle Taiwan related issues.

From scrupulously abiding to strictly abiding.

The US side can think about the Chinese side’s statement at the just concluded Shangri La dialogue meeting. There is an old Chinese saying, “don’t be unprepared.”.

Intention: strike “small action” to expose “careful thinking”

During the meeting, the Chinese side said:

The US side should have benign interaction with China and make joint efforts for the prosperity, stability and development of the Asia Pacific region.

In the last call between Yang Jiechi and Sullivan, the Chinese side also made similar statements:

Any act that undermines the fundamental and long-term interests of countries in the Asia Pacific region out of their own selfish interests is doomed to be neither far nor feasible. No attempt to form gangs or engage in separatist confrontation can succeed.

This was said before Biden’s “trip to Asia”.

In fact, at the time of the meeting between China and the United States, US Deputy Secretary of state Sherman was still in Asia – she went to South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and Laos.

These are all countries around China. I’m afraid no one will believe Sherman’s visit has nothing to do with China. Even foreign media have pointed out that the main topic of a series of recent diplomatic activities of the United States is China.

The “alliance” policy in the U.S. China policy is to “create a small circle” to “shape the strategic environment around China”.

For this reason, American politicians will take pains to peddle their “Indo Pacific strategy” and exaggerate the “China threat” in various public occasions.

Shortly after the meeting, the G7 summit and NATO summit will be held. At these two meetings, the United States will certainly continue to pull “small circles” to contain China and continue to attack and smear China.

That’s why China will beat the United States first. I know what you’re going to say. Please take care of yourself.

The “careful thinking” of the United States will not be achieved. Even the US media are lamenting that China is now the largest trading partner of almost all Asian countries, “China is a winner in Asia”, and the Biden government cannot change this.

The reason for this is very simple – whether to choose a world of division and confrontation or a world of cooperation and development. Each country has its own steelyard in mind.

Fact: look at the appeal in combination with reality

More than half a month before the meeting, Biden stated that he was considering reducing tariffs on China.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at the hearing of the house ways and Means Committee on the 8th, “I believe that the ultimate payers of some tariffs are Americans, not Chinese. They hurt American consumers and enterprises.”

Compared with the previous period, the Biden administration has made extremely frequent and “positive” statements on the tariff issue.

America is really in a hurry.

On the one hand, some of the tariffs imposed by the previous administration on China are about to expire, and the Biden administration must solve them; On the other hand, the mid-term elections are coming, and the Biden administration is facing great pressure.

In order to make the mid-term election report card look better, the Biden administration needs to solve many problems:

High inflation.

The latest U.S. inflation data for may just released on June 10 has reached 8.6%, breaking the record of U.S. inflation in the past 40 years and breaking the U.S. hope that inflation will peak and begin to decline.

The Federal Reserve will have to work harder to brake the economy and raise interest rates by 50 basis points, which was unexpected last month, may become the norm at the next few Federal Reserve interest rate meetings.

Stagflation risk.

Not long ago, the world bank just released the global economic outlook report. According to the data, the US economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2022, down 1.2 percentage points from the forecast at the beginning of this year. Moreover, the report points out that the current global economic threat is similar to the “great stagflation” in the 1970s.

In addition to the domestic issues of the United States, the United States also needs China’s support on major international issues such as the Korean nuclear issue, the Iranian nuclear issue and addressing climate change.

Since there is a need for others, we should take a sincere attitude and action. The United States should be more aware that solving problems must also be based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation. It is a dream to try to solve our own problems at the expense of the interests of other countries. China will fight for every penny in front of its core interests and will never make concessions.

Direction: look at the general trend through expression

Compared with the Rome meeting three months ago, two new statements appeared in the press release of the meeting:

The first sentence is a judgment.

China US relations are at a critical crossroads.

Diao Daming told me that the expression “crossroads” had been used by the spokesperson of the Ministry of foreign affairs before, but it appeared in high-level meetings and deserved special attention.

This shows the urgency and necessity for the US side to change course.

China has always adhered to the three principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation to guide the development of China US relations. This is in line with the fundamental interests of the Chinese and American people and the common aspiration of the international community. It should be the fundamental principle for the development of China US relations.

Internally, China considers the interests of the people; Externally, as a big country, China has the responsibility and responsibility to safeguard world peace and development.

This is a coordinate system for China to consider Sino US relations.

The United States, on the other hand, has always considered only the local interests of some people at home and only the maintenance of hegemony externally.

From the starting point of developing China US relations, the United States is wrong.

If the starting point is wrong, the specific path and method of the United States are also wrong.

The reason why American politicians have differences on the issue of China is precisely because their strategic direction is wrong, which leads to confusion and contradictions in the implementation of their strategy.

China is well aware of the routine, mentality and internal problems of the United States.

Therefore, there is a second new statement in the press release:

The Chinese side is willing to discuss with the US side the ways and means to realize this vision.

On the basis that the US side abides by the three principles, China and the US can conduct in-depth communication on specific topics.

China has said and done what it can say and do. If the United States continues to choose to go against the trend, it will push China US relations astray and to a dead end.

The United States must also bear all the serious consequences.