Original: Duan Hongbin source: official account: laoduan’s viewpoint
I posted an article on the 21st of last month, “is it true that there is a big earthquake after a big drought?”, In this article, I introduced the “theory of the relationship between drought and earthquakes”. In brief, some studies have found that there is a strong link between drought and earthquakes. The earthquake area of a major earthquake with magnitude 6 or above is often a dry area in the period of one to three years before the earthquake. The larger the area of the dry area, the larger the magnitude.
He also found that from 231 B.C. (the 16th year of the first emperor of Qin Dynasty) to 1971 A.D., a total of 69 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above occurred in North China and the Bohai Sea in the past two thousand years, of which only two were without drought before the earthquakes, and the remaining 67 were drought before the earthquakes.
If the above evidence is not clear enough, in 2006, Sichuan and Chongqing suffered a severe drought, and some areas suffered a severe drought once in a century. The temperature in some areas exceeded 40 degrees for many times, and even reached 44 degrees. The drought lasted until 2007. Finally, on May 12, 2008, a magnitude 8 earthquake occurred in Wenchuan.
However, just a few days after this article was published, it was unexpectedly encountered with “rumor refutation”. Some people said that my screenshot was a rumor. I saw it. Isn’t this the surging news angrily denounced by Hainan Daily? It turned out that it was eaten up by others and came to me to find a sense of existence?
I have read this so-called rumor refutation. Why does he dare to call me a rumor? His reasons are as follows:
1. As long as the space-time range is large enough, I can always win once. For example, the time range of 1-3 years is so large, why can’t it be accurate to a certain month? Another example is that the drought range is so large, and there will always be some earthquakes in such a large place, which does not need your prediction at all;
2. There is a big drought before the big earthquake, but there is not necessarily a big earthquake after the big drought, because the number of droughts is far more than that of big earthquakes. If you say you want an earthquake every time of drought, what will you do if there is no earthquake?
3. Even if the data can be matched, it does not mean that causality is established, because there is no scientific basis here.
The rumor refuter shook his head, talked wildly and spattered. Before he finished speaking, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.6 occurred in Sichuan today.
About earthquakes, let’s first popularize some common sense:
First of all, earthquakes are very frequent. There are about 5 million earthquakes on the earth every year, that is to say, tens of thousands of earthquakes occur every day. Why can’t we feel them? Because the magnitude of most earthquakes is very low, humans cannot sense earthquakes below magnitude 2.5 on their own, and only machines can detect them. Those with magnitudes greater than 6 and less than 7 are called strong earthquakes, those with magnitudes greater than 7 and less than 8 are called major earthquakes, and those with magnitudes 8 and above are called giant earthquakes;
Secondly, although the destructive power of large earthquakes is amazing, the frequency of occurrence is not high. This is nonsense. If the frequency of large earthquakes is very high, mankind would have perished long ago. Therefore, we are mainly concerned about earthquakes above magnitude 6. The Chinese Mainland has an average of 20 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or above, 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above, and 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above every three years;
Finally, although large earthquakes occur from time to time, most of the places where large earthquakes occur are sparsely populated, because our ancestors knew that the geomancy in these places was not good, and they were unwilling to settle here.
When someone finds out the relationship between the drought and the earthquake, the correct attitude should be to study whether there is an internal connection. If there is a connection, what is the logic? Instead of beating him to death, they say it is a rumor. Writing here, I suddenly remembered that I was also “rumored to refute rumors” last year.
On June 30, 2021, I sent an article, “why does the epidemic recur in Israel and the United Kingdom?”, The central idea of the article is very simple. I think that vaccines are not as effective as they claim. Especially after the emergence of the Gu Wang mutation, those vaccines developed for early viruses will certainly have problems. If the vaccine really works, the epidemic in Britain and Israel will not recur. Now it seems that there is nothing wrong with this view. It is simply plain that my article was judged as a rumor.
Refuting the rumor: according to the research data published by public health bureau of England, the efficacy of Pfizer vaccine against the delta strain is 87.9% after two full shots, while the efficacy against the previously popular alpha strain is 93.4%.
The rumor refuter used the data of Public Health Bureau of England to judge me as a rumor maker, because as a non-medical professional author, I dared to question the data of foreign institutions. It was really bold.
Of course, I understand that it is indeed inappropriate for me to question the effectiveness of the vaccine at a time when the whole people are vaccinated. But I am not talking about domestic vaccines. I am talking about foreign vaccines. Can’t foreigners question it? The results of the epidemic prevention of foreigners are just like shit. Is it necessary to cover up for them?
Some Chinese use rumors of foreigners to suppress my correct views. This disease needs to be cured. From this incident, we can see that many of us are kneeling on the ground, and our knees have taken root. Please stand up and take a look at the world.
Now let’s open our minds. Assuming that the inventor of the theory of “drought earthquake relationship” is not a Chinese, but a professor of a certain university in the United States, I believe these media will soon come to ridicule us, because how can foreigners’ views be wrong? If it’s wrong, it’s also the fault of the Chinese, and it can’t be the fault of the foreigners. This is our media.
I have to sympathize with the people of Sichuan, especially the people of Chengdu. These few months have been so hard. First, the high temperature forced everyone to turn on the air conditioner every day. As a result, the power was cut off immediately because of the drought. The heat at home was too hot to stay, so I had to run out to play with the water. As a result, there was a flash flood suddenly, and many people were washed away. Since going to the mountains to play with the water would be washed away, would it be all right for me to go to the indoor swimming pool? As a result, there was an epidemic gathering infection in the swimming pool, forcing everyone to stay silent at home. When everyone stayed at home, there was an earthquake, which was chasing Chengdu people.
In fact, you should also think in a good direction. According to the theory of drought and earthquake, if the earthquake breaks out in the third year, you can’t bear it anyway. So, if the earthquake is completed earlier and the pressure under it is released earlier, there may not be strong earthquakes in the future. This is also a blessing in misfortune.