Original: Shenzhen ningnanshan source: ningnanshan
The Global Times reported on June 22 that an article I thought provided some interesting information.
Globegroup quoted the news from the German media business daily on June 20, saying that a strategic document issued by the German Federal Institute for security policy (baks) under the German federal government proposed to the German government to get rid of its dependence on Chinese raw materials. The strategy document requires the German government to take the safety of raw materials as part of its national security strategy.
According to the head of the raw materials department of the German Confederation of industry (BDI), wacht,
Germany’s dependence on many mineral raw materials from China has exceeded its dependence on Russian oil and natural gas,
Therefore, it is suggested that the German government should take measures to deal with it.
According to the data provided by BDI, Germany has the highest dependence on China’s raw materials: rare earth 93.5%, graphite 90.4%, bismuth 87.1%, magnesium 79.8%, diamond powder 75.6%, antimony 68.7%, gallium 60.6%, manganese 53.8% and indium 36.1%.
There are 17 rare earth elements in total:
Light rare earths include lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, samarium and europium.
Heavy rare earths include gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium.
So we can see that what we don’t even know is rare earth elements.
The strategy document also mentioned a judgment of great strategic value, that is, it quoted the estimates of the United Nations Energy Agency,
Global demand for lithium and nickel will increase by 40% in
As far as Germany is concerned, it is promoting the technological upgrading of electric vehicles and batteries, and its dependence on raw materials will continue to increase.
The German business daily also reported that the president of the European Commission vondelain said, “we import lithium for electric vehicles, platinum for hydrogen production, silicon for solar cells, and
Of rare earths come from one supplier –
China. This is unsustainable “
Experts from Bruegel Institute, a think tank in Brussels, said that there are three ways to get rid of dependence on raw materials:
1: Diversified import of raw materials
2: Establish local production or recycle products for reuse
3: Develop other technologies to replace raw materials.
I have read this news several times, and I would like to share some of my views on it,
The first point is that political forces in all regions of the world, especially in the west, are promoting regional industrial autonomy
The reason behind this is that the western countries led by the United States do not accept China’s rise. Similarly, some countries around us, such as Japan and India, are also unwilling to accept China’s rise,
If it is not accepted, there will be some confrontational behaviors with China,
The typical examples are the precise sanctions and attacks imposed by the United States on China’s technology leader Yan company and the comprehensive trade war against China. Such acts not only affect the enterprises of China and the United States, but also affect the whole world. Because the United States is a long arm jurisdiction country, all countries must abide by its sanctions rules.
This will aggravate the insecurity of industrial economic practitioners and try to stay away from conflict areas to reduce the impact on the region.
This confrontation will continue until China completes its national rejuvenation and all countries around the world accept China as the new leader.
The reaction behind this news is that European governments and think tanks are also highly vigilant and alert to the supply chain’s dependence on China. Even though they know in their hearts that China will not take the initiative to fight a trade war with Europe, nor will it take the initiative to sanction Europe, let alone start a war, this does not affect their inner vigilance towards China,
Therefore, to diversify the supply of raw materials, but also to rise to the perspective of national security, that is to say, to get rid of dependence on China is to ensure their own national security.
I think for practitioners in various industries in China, they must also have a deep understanding of the trend or risk of regional autonomy of the industrial chain. Don’t think that the news hasn’t mentioned the U.S. sanctions for a long time, or that there has been no news on the news that Huawei, SMIC, hikang, ZTE, Shangtang, iFLYTEK and other companies have been sanctioned by the United States for a long time. Do you think things have eased, Is it over.
Companies that are not in the first-line ICT industry also need to recognize this,
Now the digitalization and intelligence of various industries is an irreversible trend. Thousands of industries are going to be digitalized and intelligent, which will inevitably be applied to a large number of ICT technologies. It is necessary to consider whether the application of these technologies can achieve enterprise autonomy. It is necessary to know that the sanctions of the United States are under the jurisdiction of the long arm. If the technology of the United States is applied, it means that it has entered the jurisdiction of the sanctions of the United States, This risk must be taken into account.
Of course, this is not to say that the technologies and products of the United States and Western countries will not be used. On the contrary, I believe that good things should be used, which is beneficial to enhancing China’s industrial competitiveness. However, we must consider that the risks and consequences are within our own tolerable range and do not have to be highly dependent on or get stuck.
The second point is that we have always said that automobile is the pillar industry of Japan, but in fact, the automobile industry is also a pillar industry, or even a lifeline industry, for Germany and even Europe.
From the assessment of raw material supply by Germany and the European Union, they especially mentioned the demand for lithium and nickel metal for the development of electric vehicles. Of course, the former is mainly the former, because nickel is used for ternary lithium batteries such as nickel cobalt manganate (NCM) and nickel cobalt aluminate (NCA), while phosphorus acid Railway (LiFePO4) is not used.
Indonesia is the world’s largest nickel producer. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the global nickel reserves in 2020 were about 94million tons, of which Indonesia accounted for 22%, about 21million tons, ranking first in the world.
Of course, there is cobalt in ternary lithium batteries, while lithium iron phosphate batteries can be free of cobalt and nickel. BYD’s current blade batteries used in electric vehicles do not contain cobalt. At least that’s what BYD said on the investor interaction platform.
Therefore, sometimes the choice of technical route does not simply consider technology, but also the supply of raw materials and costs.
Both Europeans and Germans pay so much attention to electric vehicles, which also shows that the automobile industry plays a great supporting role in the European economy, because if there is no complete vehicle manufacturing, the upstream parts industry will gradually collapse. Although this time may be long, it is not a good thing that the long-term gradual decline of the industry.
In addition, it is interesting that the president of the European Commission also mentioned that the hydrogen production industry and solar cells also need Chinese platinum and silicon materials. What these two industries and electric vehicles have in common is that they form part of the European carbon neutralization strategy. Europeans are now very concerned about green environmental protection and carbon neutralization, and the corresponding industrial economy and energy structure will also be adjusted in this direction.
With regard to the hydrogen production industry, there are a lot of discussions on the development of Japanese automobile industry on the Internet in China, that is, the hydrogen vehicle route in Japan and the electric vehicle route in China, the United States and Europe. Although from the current situation, electric vehicles have become a clear mainstream technology route, in fact, the United States, the United States and Europe will not give up on the hydrogen industry.
The following figure shows the news in August 2021. Mayongsheng, President of Sinopec, has made it clear that hydrogen energy is the core of the group’s new energy business. 100 hydrogen refueling stations will be built in 2021. During the “14th five year plan” period, 1000 hydrogen refueling stations are planned to be built, and the total investment in the five-year preliminary plan is more than 30billion yuan.
“As a major participant in the energy industry, Sinopec has rich technological advantages and production experience in hydrogen production and utilization, and also has advantages in key materials and basic chemicals in the hydrogen energy industry chain. At the same time, the company has 30000 gas stations and has network advantages in developing hydrogen energy business. The company has put forward the goal of building China’s first hydrogen energy company, and will seize the historical opportunity of rapid development of the hydrogen energy industry in the future to As the company’s core business of new energy, the company accelerated its development and vigorously promoted the layout of the hydrogen energy industry. ” Mayongsheng said.
He said that Sinopec’s ideas for developing hydrogen energy during the “14th five year plan” period include:
First, it is planned to build 1000 hydrogenation stations, with a hydrogenation service capacity of
Second, we will vigorously develop hydrogen production from renewable energy, and the planned cumulative hydrogen production will exceed one million tons.
Third, focus on hydrogen energy transportation and green hydrogen refining.
Among them, in the field of hydrogen energy transportation, the largest hydrogen preparation, storage, transportation and filling network in China should be built;
In the field of green hydrogen refining, it is necessary to promote the transformation and decarbonization of refining and chemical enterprises and realize the largest scale of green hydrogen utilization in the refining and chemical industry in China.
Through the above efforts, the company will strive to reduce the annual carbon dioxide emission by more than 10million tons by the end of the “14th five year plan”.
When talking about the construction of the company’s hydrogen refueling stations, he revealed that Sinopec has built 20 hydrogen refueling stations, 10 are under construction, 30 are ready to start construction, and 20 are approved for construction, mainly in key areas such as Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan Chongqing, central China (August 2021).
Sinopec is comprehensively promoting the construction of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy, and has made breakthroughs in hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen production technology, hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen storage materials and other fields. company
two thousand and twenty-one
Annual hydrogen production capacity exceeds 390
Million tons, accounting for 11% of China’s hydrogen production
about. Four hydrogen purification production units have been built in Yanshan Petrochemical, Guangzhou petrochemical, Gaoqiao Petrochemical and Hainan petrochemical,
Among them, 99.999% high-purity hydrogen produced by Yanshan Petrochemical will be guaranteed for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.
Not only Sinopec, PetroChina is also engaged in hydrogen energy, although the pace is slower than Sinopec.
The reason behind this is that the production, storage, transportation and hydrogenation of hydrogen are quite similar to the industrial chain of oil companies.
Therefore, although electric vehicles have become the mainstream of the future development of the automotive industry in China, the United States and Europe, it does not mean that the development of hydrogen energy vehicles has stopped. For a large country like China, it will continue to invest in the development of hydrogen energy.
However, whether hydrogen is manufactured or used in hydrogen energy vehicles, platinum metal is required as catalyst. Therefore, the development of hydrogen energy vehicles will drive the demand for platinum metal.
Here are my views on hydrogen and electric vehicles,
In terms of technology and industry, the maturity of hydrogen powered vehicles is not as good as that of electric vehicles,
Not only has electric power been widely used in human society, but also electric vehicles have been widely used in human society for a long time, such as subways, trains, various electric motorcycles, etc. the electric facilities are also very perfect, and the constraints mainly come from the development of battery technology.
The current problems faced by hydrogen energy vehicles, including the high cost (not only the difference between the cost of hydrogen refueling and the cost of refueling for hydrogen energy vehicles is not too large, but also significantly higher than that for electric vehicles, and the cost of building hydrogen refueling stations is also expensive), the lack of hydrogen energy transmission and storage systems, and the concern about the safety of hydrogen explosion, are all manifestations of insufficient technological and industrial maturity.
Therefore, the essential reason why both China, the United States and Europe choose electric vehicles is the maturity of technology and industry. If the two tracks bring similar benefits, humans will certainly choose to make money from the easy track first, but this does not mean that they will give up the development of hydrogen energy vehicles.
During the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, there will be more than 1000 hydrogen energy vehicles, and more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations will serve behind the scenes… Involving BAIC group, Yutong Bus, Zhongtong bus, Futian Automobile, Suzhou Jinlong, China National Heavy Duty Truck and other automobile enterprises,
Big countries are all multi legged, but they will follow the maturity first and then. In the future, electric vehicles will continue to develop in a big way, and will first rise as alternative fuel vehicles. However, hydrogen energy vehicles will also have a place.
However, the proportion of the two depends on the actual situation of the long-term technical development of the two circuits.
When we returned to Germany, different from the concerns of German and EU government officials, the German business community is still investing in China. According to the report of the economic observer on June 25,
The three German luxury car manufacturers BBA (Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi) held the commissioning or foundation laying ceremony of the new factory in China at the same time, which has not happened in the past decade.
From June 13 to June 28, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi successively announced that they would usher in the large-scale production of electric vehicles in China.
On June 13, the latest electric vehicle EQE of Mercedes Benz, which has not yet been listed, went offline, becoming the 4million complete vehicle put into production by Beijing Mercedes Benz;
On June 23, Shenyang Lida factory, the largest investment project of BMW in China so far, was put into operation. The factory has 100% production capacity of electric vehicles. The new bmwi3, BMW’s first pure electric medium-sized sports car, has been successfully put into operation in the factory;
On June 28, Audi’s first production base in China specializing in the production of pure electric vehicles – Audi FAW’s new PPE plant will lay the foundation in Changchun. It is expected that it will be put into operation in 2024 with an annual capacity of 150000 vehicles.
The investment in these three factories is as high as 11.9 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan and 35.8 billion yuan respectively. It is gratifying that the factories of BMW and Audi are located in Northeast China. Such a large investment is obviously helpful for revitalizing northeast China.
Note that the three German car companies are all expanding electric vehicles in China.
Lida factory is the largest single investment in China by BMW Group. After completion, Shenyang BMW will have an annual production capacity of 830000 vehicles, becoming the world’s largest BMW production base. Moreover, Shenyang will be built into BMW’s global automobile export base. This meaning is very different. Before, the cars manufactured by multinational car companies in China were mainly supplied to the Chinese market. The picture below shows a picture of Shenyang Lida factory, which covers an area of 2.9 square kilometers and is located in the famous Tiexi District of Shenyang.
It seems that different from the concerns of German officials, German entrepreneurs trust China more. Of course, there are reasons behind this. In addition to the maturity of China’s electric vehicle industry chain and technology,
China has also liberalized the proportion of foreign equity in automobile joint ventures,
On January 18, 2021, FAW Group, Audi Motor Corporation (Audi) and Changchun Municipal People’s Government jointly announced the signing of an agreement, announcing the establishment of a new joint venture Audi FAW. Among them, Audi and Volkswagen Group will hold 60% of the shares of the joint venture, which will become the first holding joint venture of Audi in China.
From February 11, 2022, BMW Group announced that its shareholding in BMW Brilliance was increased from 50% to 75%, and brilliance china indirectly held the remaining 25% of the shares.
Which enterprise doesn’t like to earn more money through the increase of equity ratio?
Enhance China’s “universal gravitation”
This universal gravitation includes China’s market, China’s technology and China’s industrial chain,
As long as your things are better than others’ and more competitive, it will form a universal gravitation, which can not be resisted even with administrative power.
The reason why the United States dares to impose an embargo on high-tech products against China and other countries is that its industrial products are indeed technologically and ecologically advanced, so that you have to use them. Even it can take forbidding you to use them as a means of sanctions.
After the Sino US trade war began in 2018, we were also very worried at that time. We felt that our goods could not be sold to the United States once the 25% tariff was added. However, the facts over the past four years have proved that even if the 25% tariff was added, the exports to the United States still reached a new high. This is a kind of gravitation brought about by strong competitiveness. If you use administrative power to increase taxes, American importers and consumers are still attracted by made in China.
Tesla’s factory construction in China is similar. It has used China’s strong manufacturing capacity to turn Tesla from made in the United States to made in China. In 2021, half of Tesla’s cars were made in Shanghai. Tesla’s production capacity was absorbed by China, which further strengthened China’s gravitational role.
Why do we welcome foreign investment, as long as it is not backward and redundant excess capacity, to set up factories in China, rather than worry that it will crowd out China’s local industries? I think it is the same. As long as foreign capital comes, we have a way to let it expand localized procurement and drive the proportion of global production capacity in China’s industrial chain, which will enhance China’s gravitational role.
I think this also applies to China and Germany, or between China and Europe. As long as China is as powerful as a star, even if the surrounding planets have various worries and reluctance, they have to revolve around the star under the action of universal gravitation.
However, there is one star in the world today, that is, the United States. They obviously do not want to accept the world of two stars. In fact, I also think that the stability of two star systems is not as stable as that of single star systems,
Maybe the world will eventually stabilize only when the United States becomes a big planet.