This article is reproduced from bullpiano (ID: bullpiano) by Niu tanqin
Data map
South Korea has set a new world record. We must be careful about this record.
It’s not to fight. Please rest assured, South Koreans, we have no intention to fight. The most we can do is to seriously learn your lessons. The farther away we are from this record, the better.
According to the data recently released by the South Korean government, although South Korea has taken a series of very positive measures, unfortunately, South Korea has broken the world record of the lowest fertility rate, and the original world record is also owned by the South Koreans.
What is the world record?
In 2021, South Korea’s fertility rate (that is, the average number of children born in a woman’s lifetime) was 0.81, a decrease of 0.03% over the previous year.
We should know that the United States also has a headache for children. The fertility rate in 2021 is 1.6; Japan, which is even more worried about children’s problems, also has 1.3. In some African countries with the highest fertility rate in the world, this figure is even more enviable, 5 or 6.
It is estimated that the South Koreans can still accept falling behind the United States; Now they are far behind Japan, and the Koreans have to be vigilant.
You know, 2020 is bad enough for South Korea. Because this year, the number of deaths in South Korea exceeded the number of births for the first time, which means that the population of South Korea is decreasing, which is the so-called “population death intersection”.
Who knows, the next year, South Korea’s fertility rate is still falling. However, a country needs a fertility rate of 2.1 to maintain its population growth, that is, a couple has more than two children on average. The United States fails, Japan fails and South Korea fails.
Why is that?
One of the reasons is that South Korean women are getting older and older. South Korean official data show that in 2021, the average childbearing age of South Korean women was 33.4 years, 0.2 years older than the previous year.
In terms of aging, as of November last year, 16.8% of South Koreans were 65 years old or older, and only 11.8% of South Koreans were 14 years old or younger. It is estimated that by 2050, the aging of the Korean population will be more serious, and 4 out of every 10 people will be elderly.
Economic growth is very important, but the fluctuations in the growth rate will not immediately affect the national economy; However, the population problem will undoubtedly affect the future of a country.
Because no matter how developed the economy is, no matter how advanced the science and technology is, no matter how prosperous the culture is, there are no more people. Where is the future of the country?
What’s more, without young people, who can support so many old people? Is it possible to rely on machines?
Looking at the reports of foreign media, some Korean women explain that they do not have children because they really do not have the time, money or emotional ability to date, because in the highly competitive job market, they can only put their own career in the first place. However, in this market, they often face patriarchal culture and gender inequality.
Of course, with regard to the population problem, the South Korean government has also racked its brains and introduced a series of incentive policies, such as allowing parents to take maternity leave at the same time, allowing women to extend paid maternity leave, and issuing “new baby vouchers” in some places.
In a word, I encourage more students.
But in the end, I was not born.
Of course, the problem of South Korea has always existed in Japan, an old enemy.
In 2020, South Korea touched the “intersection of population and death”, but what about Japan? Japan’s new born population in 2021 was 831000, but the death rate reached 1.44 million, which was more serious than that of South Korea.
What makes the Japanese even more helpless is that among the 20 countries with the largest population in the world, only Japan’s population continues to decline.
In terms of aging, Japan’s young population aged 14 and below accounted for 11.8% of the total population, the same proportion as South Korea; However, Japan’s elderly population aged 65 and above accounted for 28.9% of the total population, far higher than that of South Korea.
Of course, the problems of South Korea and Japan are not only unique to South Korea and Japan, but also exist in Europe and the United States.
Don’t laugh at us Chinese. We also face very serious challenges. From this point of view, although South Korea and Japan often make trouble, China, Japan and South Korea are really in trouble.
Why are the issues between China, Japan and the ROK similar at different levels of development and different national systems?
You should know that in Korea and Japan, you should never be restricted to having two, three or even four or five children. In fact, you have more children, South Korea has always been rewarded, and Japan has always been subsidized. Japan has even set up a cabinet minister to urge Japan to have children. However, Japanese love action films are well-known all over the world, but it seems that the more developed they are, the less they can inspire Japanese young people.
I can see that when reflecting on the decline of China’s fertility rate, some experts believe that this is the result of too “voluminous” society, the pressure of social competition is too great, and the cost of raising children is too high. Young people really do not have the energy.
This may all be true, but is this the root cause?
South Korea is the same reason? Is Japan the same reason?
I always think that this is only one of the reasons. This is a comprehensive social problem. Among them, there are physiological reasons, economic problems, and great changes in social concepts.
In the past, people emphasized having more children and more blessings, but modern people do not really want to have more children. This may have something to do with the fast pace of society, not only in China, Japan, South Korea, but also in the entire European and American region. The more the economy develops, the lower the desire to have children. People are social animals. Once this concept is formed, it is difficult to change it in a short time.
Just like working in Israel in those years, I saw that many women often had seven or eight or even ten children in their lives (some Jews do not allow contraception). Among them, there are religious and other factors, but this is also an idea. It may not be a normal situation, and it may change quickly in the future.
The good news is that I always believe in a line in Jurassic Park: life finds away. Life will always find a way out. Ideas are always changing. How can such an intelligent and ambitious creature as human beings be isolated from the earth?
Therefore, as far as the whole mankind is concerned, we need not worry about the population problem at all.
However, the bad news is that once the concept is formed, it will not change in the short term. The earth is composed of different countries, and some countries will face major population pressure, and even have an impact on the world pattern. This is indeed very worrying.
Population is an important factor in future competition. It is an indisputable fact that Africa and India are poor and face many challenges. However, both Africa and India have a large number of young people, and population is the biggest dividend.
This is a data in recent years. The median age of the world population:
Japan, 48 years old
Italy, 47 years old
Germany, 46 years old
Korea, 44 years old
France, 42 years old
UK, 41
Russia, 40 years old
38 years old in the United States
China, 38 years old
But in India, I’m only 28 years old!
Figuratively speaking, Japan, Italy, South Korea and other countries, as well as China and the United States, are all middle-aged people, while India is still a young man with fresh blood. India will soon replace China as the world’s most populous country. Modi’s words are: what miracle can’t be created in a country with 800 million young people?
I remember that after last year’s Japanese population statistics came out, a Japanese’s emotion was very interesting. He said: if no effective measures are taken, in 50 years’ time, the total population of Japan may only be 68 million. Will Japan become a small country or even a province of China?
Alas, it seems that this is not very grand. Does China want Japan to become a province?
But this Japanese statement is an interesting comparison. I specially checked the census data of China last year. Excluding the foreign population, the total population of Guangdong in 2020 was 126.01250, and the total population of Japan in 2021 was 122.78 million.
In fact, the total population of Guangdong Province has surpassed that of Japan.
Guangdong is indeed not simple. With the strength of a province, its economy has surpassed that of Russia and its population has surpassed that of Japan.
Now, South Korea has set a world record, which is faster, fiercer and more urgent than Japan. We really don’t want to compete for this world record. The Koreans should keep it.
However, if the population of Japan really drops to 68 million in the future and the population of China’s provinces can remain unchanged (very difficult, very difficult), then Japan can rank seventh among China’s provinces, second only to Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Hebei, and slightly higher than Hunan and Zhejiang.
As for South Korea, the current total population is 51.738 million, but according to the estimation of the Korean Statistics Department, the population of South Korea will be reduced to 37.66 million by 2070. If the population of South Korea really drops to this figure, it will rank 18th among the provinces in China, lower than Guizhou and only slightly higher than Shanxi and Chongqing.
Korean young people, come on!
Japanese young people, work hard!
Young Chinese, you can do as you like!