The following article is from CHENFENG laoyuan, by CHENFENG laoyuan
In recent months, Sri Lanka, known as the first country to collapse after the Russian Ukrainian war, has been in constant crisis. Just yesterday, it was completely chaotic.
Thousands of protesters appeared on the streets of Colombo, the capital, and went straight to the presidential residence, the presidential office and the prime minister’s office. The scene was chaotic. At first, the police also sprayed tear gas to disperse the protesters, but the number of people on the scene increased. Finally, the police could not resist and fled in a hurry.
Before the police fled, President gotaba Rajapaksa fled the presidential palace under the protection of the army. After the police stopped it, the dark crowd was like ants. In the huge noise, many people climbed over the gate railing and rushed into the presidential palace. Many people even swam in the pool of the presidential palace.
Half of the country’s “brotherly government” was swept away by public demonstrations, but the economic and livelihood crisis is lingering. At present, not only fuel and electricity are in short supply, but also food may be in short supply. The Sri Lankan government is asking for help all over the world. Of course, China is no exception, but apart from a small amount of emergency funds, China is not generous.
Sri Lanka is located in the hub of the the Belt and Road, and China has invested heavily in the construction of Hambantota and Colombo. Why do you choose cold treatment?
Sri Lanka is a part of British India and is as deeply influenced by the West as India. China will face dual pressure from the West and India to take root in Sri Lanka. On the other hand, Sri Lanka is also an important foothold in the Indian Ocean, which is worth further cultivation.
But worth is not equal to regardless of the cost. Under the pressure of the West and India, Sri Lanka, like Maldives, has repeatedly jumped sideways, perhaps thinking it was a trick to harvest Chinese leeks.
Politics does not stress honesty, but too much lack of honesty also comes at a price. Cutting leeks in large countries is especially costly.
There is also the need not to be self righteous, unrepentant, or scholar statesmen. Not that scholars cannot govern the country, but that they cannot govern the country by imagination. We should believe in science and respect reality.
Whether it is out of religion or the concept of “progress”, the Sri Lankan government firmly believes in organic agriculture and bans fertilizers and pesticides. Fertilizers and pesticides have been labeled with various evils, but this is a high concentration promotion of crop growth. Agriculture itself is a high-intensity promotion of natural growth. The only natural thing is the era of picking.
Since the establishment of agriculture, there have been seed selection, fertilization, weeding and irrigation, which deviate from the natural growth environment, but only in this way can we improve production and meet the needs of population growth. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides are only the natural extension and strengthening of this process, which highly concentrates the nutrients in farm manure. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides should not be abused, and the abuse of farm manure will also burn crops, and fecal residues are also not favored by consumers.
Sri Lanka simply does not have enough organic fertilizers, but it has nothing to do. It refuses a batch of organic fertilizers from China, exacerbating the problem of fertilizer shortage in the farmland.
If agriculture is really organic, it will inevitably lead to a decline in yield and farming intensity. This is precisely the current situation in Sri Lanka. The ban on chemical fertilizers was implemented in April 2021, and could not be implemented until November, so it had to be abolished, but it was too late and the damage had been caused.
Sri Lanka does not know what captivating soup it has drunk. It firmly believes that as long as the debt remains at home and is not converted into foreign debt, indiscriminate currency issuance will not cause a crisis. “When people have money in their hands, they will consume and stimulate the economy”, what a familiar argument.
Unfortunately, Sri Lanka has too many things to import. After the people have money, they are eager to buy, indirectly increasing imports, and foreign exchange consumption has increased rapidly. The COVID-19 caused the collapse of tourism and the sudden depletion of foreign exchange earnings. The rise in energy and food prices brought about by the Ukrainian war is even worse. In 2019, there are still US $5.5 billion in foreign exchange reserves, and now there are only US $50million left, which can not even guarantee the daily import of fuel and grain. The power outage in the country has lasted for more than ten hours a day for some time.
China has invested heavily in Sri Lanka, mainly in infrastructure construction, such as seaports, electricity, airports, roads, etc. It is China’s experience to focus on infrastructure first and then industrialization. This is also the experience that China has brought to the the Belt and Road. However, industrial development after infrastructure construction is not automatic, and it still needs policy coherence and emphasis on business. For the interests of political parties and following the clamour of interest groups, impulsive decision-making is even more an enemy. Sri Lanka has committed such a scholar’s mistake of governing the country.
The Sri Lankan government has also repeatedly jumped on the China issue. It doesn’t matter who has done what, because in the past two decades, there has been no exception: being “pro China” in office and attracting Chinese capital; As soon as there is trouble, he will immediately throw the pot on China, set up all kinds of obstacles, dismantle the bridge, break faith, and even break the contract; Once he leaves office, China will become the most convenient grasp. As long as he attacks China, he will curry favor with India and the West internationally, while at home he will attack the authorities to “sell Sri Lanka’s interests to China” and complain about “China’s debt trap”, although China’s debt actually accounts for only 10% (say 20%) of Sri Lanka’s debt; It’s not too late to change your face when you come on stage again.
China used to be very sensitive to such a political change, trying to avoid other countries’ domestic political traps. But “people sitting at home, trap the sky”, avoid is unavoidable. What should I do? Only let the person who dug the trap understand that it was ultimately him who buried it. This is not to die, but to save the sick.
This is not only teaching Sri Lankan politicians to behave in international relations, but also teaching them to behave in national governance. If you are radical in national governance, you have to pay the price. If others don’t help you wipe your ass, China will not be responsible for the “chaos” in Sri Lanka. China will save lives. It has provided emergency loans, but it will not cover the bottom indefinitely.
China will help Sri Lanka restructure its debt and reduce its debt burden, but it will not cancel its debt without principle. This is not only Sri Lanka’s careful thinking, but also the conspiracy of the west, trying to use moral traps to force China to accept huge investment losses, and then the West took the opportunity to “be good” and benefit from the improved local economic environment free of charge.
What China pursues is to build a win-win situation, but it is not free relief. The target country cannot lie flat and eat profits. The the Belt and Road is not Tanzania Zambia railway. It is China’s overseas poverty alleviation. China’s poverty alleviation is not allowed to lie flat. We must get up and work hard with the Chinese people. Sri Lanka may have become the destination of China’s industrial transfer, but China can do nothing if it adheres to the myth of organic agriculture, pretends to be false to sincere economic cooperation, and refuses industrialization. China wants to recover the loan. The money is the result of the hard work of the Chinese people. It doesn’t fall from the sky. It’s not for nothing.
It must be said that Sri Lanka is not a special case in the the Belt and Road countries. Many of them have or may have similar problems. Sri Lanka is unfortunately making itself a bad example.
Sri Lanka still has the opportunity to become a good example. China is willing to help as long as we listen to advice, get up and work hard. The so-called the Belt and Road of China has shifted its focus to Southeast Asia, so Sri Lanka has been snubbed, which is wrong. At present, Southeast Asia gets more Chinese investment because Southeast Asia (especially Laos) is really following China, rather than waiting for pie to fall.
The same is true for those who save themselves.