Sudden shortage of assets!

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Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)

Recently, the urban investment bonds were snapped up by the market. As soon as the “22 Dafeng seaport cp002” with a total amount of 500million was listed, it was subscribed by 30billion funds. The issuer saw this trend and reduced the interest rate by 0.5%.

I still remember that at this time last year, friends in the capital circle inquired everywhere, and even gave very good issuance fees. Some urban investment bonds that were not listed in the industry list were very difficult to issue.

The reason is clear to all. At the end of 2020, the Yongmei coal bonds exploded, causing the collective panic in the capital circle, and no one dared to rush without thinking. In fact, the old bird in the market knows what is going on with many urban investment bonds.

If you look through it, you will find that, except for an implicit local government guarantee, the quality of the corresponding company is really bad to comment on.

But even Yongmei finally solved the problem properly. At that time, I said that when the market scared itself, the bond price fell into a dog, so we should quickly copy the bottom.

Because if you put aside your narrow knowledge to consider the debt problem in China, you will find that Chinese debt is often nothing more than a bookkeeping problem.

You may as well look at Article 10 of the constitution, which clearly stipulates that urban land shall be owned by the state, and rural and suburban land shall be owned by collectives, except for those that are owned by the state by law; Homesteads, private plots of land and private hills are also collectively owned.

China’s most valuable assets are firmly controlled by the state. There are many asset prices that have not been valued. Compared with the huge total assets, liabilities are really nothing.

If we look at what China has done with its debts over the years, we will have a better understanding.

We have not borrowed money to spend aggressively, as in Europe and the United States. Our debts are mainly invested in infrastructure construction. This is fixed asset investment. Countries have invested intensively for decades. Now let alone cities, the basic facilities in rural areas are much better than those in Europe and the United States.

Does not the land that has been taken good care of increase in value?

However, a large number of assets have not been monetized, so many economists can point to a debt data and gossip.

However, in the past, local governments relied too much on investment to drive land appreciation, hoping to relieve their debts by speculating on high land prices. However, in the past, the debt problem has become more and more serious. In addition, a large amount of money has been sold, which has inevitably attracted the covetous attention of all parties and made them more fishy.

The biggest problem with local debt is that financial institutions dare to take risks, engage in “financial innovation”, and cooperate with some places to operate in violation of regulations.

Ten years ago, it was better to talk about urban investment bonds. It was more about issuing trusts. I remember that I have seen almost 25% of the most annualized urban investment trust products. Of course, the interest rate is not so high, and a large amount of money went into the pockets of financial enterprises.

Isn’t that the so-called myth of financial management at that time? Various financial innovation enterprises with savage growth have sprung up to collect money. P2P was the most popular one in those years.

It is a shortage of funds that the market can generally bear high interest rates. It reached a stage peak in June 2013, so shadow banks used various off balance sheet methods to carry funds.

It turned out that ordinary people were honest to deposit money, but they chose it on a regular basis. Later, because the Deposit Reserve kept increasing, everyone tried every means to do off balance sheet business. Then the money that should have been deposited suddenly became financial management.

Some people think that this is a great good thing. It is like a teacher Ma said that the life of the bank should be changed. In fact, the life of the bank can not be changed by the ants, and it can not be changed.

Behind the four major state-owned banks stood the state’s unlimited credit endorsement. Behind the ants, even Mr. Ma refused to take full responsibility, let alone those who rushed to try to share the benefits.

In the end, it increased the scale layer by layer, disrupting the normal financial order. As a result, the financing cost of the whole society became higher, but the interest people received went from bad to worse. Who earned it? Those Internet intermediaries with the name of helping you manage your money.

This year, several rural banks in Henan were unable to withdraw money. Many people asked me to write. How can I write?

Banks have a range of businesses, and the scale of business is limited by the registered capital, which is to control risks.

The rural banks have fixed their eyes on the Internet, and they have moved their minds. It is illegal to use the Internet to solicit deposits at high interest rates.

Don’t think that hanging the name of a bank is equivalent to having a national credit endorsement. The four major state-owned banks are.

From the perspective of penetration, these so-called “banks” are not much different from P2P.

Including many local urban commercial banks, there are also various problems, and the major shareholders make all kinds of bad things.

Why can’t Evergrande cover up the big thunder in the end? It’s not because the hole dug in Shengjing bank couldn’t be filled in at last. What’s funny is that someone posted a post on the Internet to expose the fishiness between Shengjing bank and a university. He was also refuted and reported to the police and served by a lawyer.

What is the reason why people can’t even say what they have done well when there is tangible evidence that they have done well?

Many other people advocate for capital, thinking that enterprises create jobs, so even crimes should be covered up. But can an enterprise that dares to break the bottom line of the law at any time really create healthy and quality jobs?

Has the protection of a big job been saved in the end? Not only did the employees lose their jobs, they were also involved in illegal financing. Many people lost their entire family and their relatives’ and friends’ savings.

I’ve seen a shortage of funds. To put it bluntly, it’s just that some links are stuck, making it impossible for money to flow to people in need, and then the price of funds can rise from the ground. It seems that ordinary people who are willing to manage money have made a small profit, but after a big account, who has the money in the end?

Those who dare to undertake financing at high interest rates are either gamblers or have no plans to repay them at all. Who do you trust?

Similarly, what is behind the shortage of assets?

It is not that there is no place to put too much money, but that the society has generally lost trust under the collusion of enterprises.

In the past, no matter how much money was released, real estate enterprises dared to take it.

Now you ask those real estate companies, are they really not short of money?

Yesterday, I saw the news that the real estate in Shenzhen was liquidated by the creditors.

If you have money to pay back to your creditors, why would you end up here?

But I’ll ask you, who dares to jump out and say frankly that I can lend it to you with a high interest rate?

They dare not kill them, but I believe that many real estate companies trapped in the debt crisis can survive if there is capital injection.

But who dares to believe that an enterprise will take the money and start an enterprise honestly instead of doing anything else?

After all, the big statements audited by the four major international companies were not as good-looking as they could be before the thunderstorm. The boss was crazy about paying dividends. He distributed tens of billions to himself and issued high interest bonds to sell them to his own people, making a lot of interest.

The general contracting of joint and several projects should be done by my dear brother. This is called “fat water does not flow out of the field”. All kinds of natural and luxurious quality life in the enterprise are put on the Internet.

These are all money. Who will pay for them?

The profits created by enterprises are sometimes a muddle headed account before liquidation, but those real debts keep pounding the fragile trust of the whole society.

Everyone says that confidence is more important than gold. But who can spread confidence everywhere today?

The characteristics of the funds are that they are extremely greedy when facing the wind, and they become afraid when facing the wind.

The so-called shortage of assets, in the final analysis, refers to those assets that allow the funds to grasp without panic. Once the market analyzed, there are too few such assets, so everyone began to relax the scale, and even the old and difficult Guizhou urban investment bonds can fly.

This is almost the same situation in the United States on the other side. Various institutions are frantically saving money in the hands of the Federal Reserve, resulting in the overnight reverse repurchase hitting new highs. How do you think this interest rate can be increased?

Of course, we should also see the good side. There is more money in the market, and it is difficult for real estate confidence to return to normal in the short term, so the stock market will be lost. Therefore, the disk in the past few days looks like it is going to be smashed every time, but it is finally pulled up by abundant funds to continue playing.

There is a proverb in the stock market: five poor, six absolutely seven turnaround. It seems that this year is expected to turn around ahead of schedule.

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