Talk about chips again!

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Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)

In yesterday’s article, someone asked me directly and impolitely: do you understand chips? Talking about the surplus of the industry and the problems faced in the future immediately annoyed the holders.

Pro, I haven’t had the ability to destroy an industry, let alone the ability to control the market at will. Everything I say is based on the induction and summary of objective facts.

Even if you are no longer willing to face it, you have to face up to the facts. You can only deceive yourself by hiding your ears.

Is chip high-tech? In fact, anything we can’t do independently is high-tech.

If you usually like to watch some Republic of China dramas, you must know that penicillin in rotten street now was also a great high-tech in those days. A box is often oneortwo gold.

In fact, the principle of penicillin is not so complicated. There are intelligent people in China who can make it.

However, because a famous comprador enterprise such as Yangzi company controlled the import and export agency right, people decisively used their power to suppress the productivity of self-made penicillin in order to safeguard their own interests.

If there is no industrialized large-scale production of this thing and it cannot form a stable production capacity, then you can’t compete with foreign pharmaceutical companies.

When China started its own industrialization, now more than 70% of the world’s production capacity of antibiotic technical drugs is concentrated in China, and because of China’s huge productivity, the price does not give the ghost guys a little room for arbitrage, so that trump sanctioned Chinese goods, and the pharmaceutical industry came out to plead, because they really can’t rebuild production capacity.

Many people who highly admire foreigners praise foreign doctors for not abusing antibiotics. Do you think it is really for the health of patients? No, no, no, Americans don’t give cheap antibiotics to people when they use them for animals, because in this way, addictive painkillers can’t be sold.

When the power of industrialization breaks the so-called high-tech painting, many underlying logic changes completely.

So what is the problem of China’s chip industry now?

??

This is what I found on the Internet. We gave up the electronic industry in the 1980s for complex reasons.

Now it’s meaningless to scold the wrong decisions of the past. Someone always resells electronic components. Relying on a screwdriver technology, they have become the godfather of science and technology. When they have left-hand capital and right-hand voice, how can this industry develop?

Originally, in the electronic industry, the competition in the chip industry has long been separated from the simple enterprise competition. Behind the competition is the choice of national will and financial capital.

Until the early 1990s, the number one in the chip industry was not South Korea. At that time, the brands we were familiar with were NEC, Toshiba and these Japanese brands.

However, Japan was doomed to lose the national war. After the United States chose to replace Japan’s position in the chip industry with South Korea, Japan’s chip industry was doomed.

In fact, advanced technology doesn’t mean anything. As long as the capital and mainstream market say no to your advanced technology, no matter how capable you are, you will die quickly.

Elpida originally had the first-class technology in DRAM storage, and also got a 60% share. However, as soon as a financial crisis, Elpida began to lose money, Japanese financial institutions controlled by the United States would immediately find various excuses to force Elpida, an enterprise bearing the final glory of Japanese storage chips, to death.

If you lose money and the financial data are not good-looking, you don’t need to finance the construction of the latest production line.

Like Samsung in South Korea, its financial statements are ugly. It doesn’t matter. With the support of the whole country and Wall Street, he built the latest production line, and then sent a large number of technical spies. In short, there are ways to steal the latest technology.

As long as one cycle, Elpida will go bankrupt and die, and Samsung villain has become the boss.

The so-called miracle of Taiwan’s chip industry, in fact, there are also factors of Japanese technology support.

I still remember that when Han Guoyu came out to run for the puppet president of Taiwan Province, the slogan he shouted was “technology depends on Japan”. To be honest, Japan was strangled by the United States and South Korea, and it was hopeless to turn over, transferring a considerable number of key semiconductor technologies to Taiwan.

The economy determines the superstructure. You see, after people’s vegetables came to power, they went to kneel and lick Japan every three or five times. Is it true that they are counting on the unreliable self defense forces to save their lives? No, up to now, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is still waiting for neon to feed with its mouth open every day, and wanwan has been carrying the island’s economy by relying on the semiconductor industry these years.

Now it is equivalent to Chinese chip enterprises that have to challenge the global chip industry alliance under the leadership of the United States. We have no alliance, and we are enemies outside.

South Korea can rely on the support of the United States to challenge Japan, and Taiwan Province can rely on playing a balance between Japan and the United States to rise suddenly. Now in this chip war, they will unite to curb Chinese enterprises.

We are known as the crusher of developed countries, how to crush? It’s not like breaking up their high-tech packaged industries one by one, and the way to grab excess profits is broken one by one. Naturally, I’m embarrassed to boast that I’m a developed country.

However, China’s strong point is to spread the so-called advanced services that originally belonged to only a few people and a few countries to the world.

I still remember the first phone in my family, which received more than 3000 initial installation fees. Why? Because at that time, telecommunications technology was monopolized by the west, and a broken iron plate that was nothing dared to sell you more than 20000.

When Huawei and ZTE rise, we will make Africans able to use 4G and mobile phones. Can Japan and South Korea afford this kind of play? Dare Taiwan Province play?

They all dare to follow the framework defined by Europe and the United States.

I said in my article yesterday that the chip industry has begun to have overcapacity and has formed a large number of inventories. This process of de stocking is a so-called boom downward cycle.

In the past, Samsung can continue to play its counter cyclical expansion and clean up its competitors one by one.

According to the data from the Atlanta fed, the real GDP growth rate of the United States in the second quarter will be -2.1% (the first quarter is -1.6%), which means that the United States has entered a real recession.

After deducting the crazy CPI, the GDP actually shrank even more, and the so-called overheating of the U.S. economy can no longer be boasted.

A worldwide demand contraction starting from the United States and Europe is about to hit head-on, and the chip industry will not be spared.

In recent years, China has the largest capacity expansion in the chip industry. The investment of a chip factory is often tens of billions. If you look at the leading TSMC, it is tens of billions of dollars of capital expenditure every year.

Most of the money is borrowed, and the debt is to be repaid.

Maybe domestic manufacturers are better. Our capital market will not be used to those financial capitalists.

But American financial capitalists have not formed the good habit of not interfering in enterprises.

Think about it. If Samsung and TSMC face fierce competition, who will the United States help?

Besides, TSMC’s investment in advanced process plants in the United States may be swallowed up by American capital.

If the overall environment of the whole industry is not good, then the participants in each industry will have a hard time.

Think about it, why did Apple hand over its supply chain to China? Apple, as a brand, has no factory and no workers. The market is bad. It is very straightforward to cut the order, and the loss is limited. It is a big deal to lose some deposit.

But in the boom years, people placed a large number of orders. Will suppliers eat it or not? Well, do you have to keep up with your fixed asset investment? Can you earn back this investment after receiving orders for several years?

Not to mention all kinds of raw materials that must be purchased in advance in order to match the order. There is money inside and outside. Finally, apple pays a deposit. Can it really compensate for the loss?

Good oufeiguang was kicked out of Apple’s supply chain and lost a lot of money in a row, almost losing all the money he made in previous years.

If we only consider the problem from the perspective of how to maximize the profit of financial capital, of course, Apple’s outsourcing production mode is the most cost-effective.

Because the biggest profits and brands are in its hands, and consumers are under its control, but the huge risks and pressures formed by production are thrown to those producing countries.

So think about it. Isn’t China’s chip industry, which has expanded the largest chip production capacity in recent years, a bad prospect? But after all, China has institutional advantages. Since 2021, we have tightened liquidity in advance. Remember the sharp decline in July last year?

In the bull market of recent years, the chip industry has obtained a lot of funds in the capital market, and large funds have also made profits and withdrawn early.

So in the next downward cycle, we can also play the reverse cycle.

Don’t forget, who is the strongest in the world in macro-control?

After the epidemic, China has been doing one thing that no other country in the world can do, that is, digital fine management.

Don’t say anything. Scanning the code every day is one of them.

When digital management becomes popular, will it be easier to plan for the construction of the digital economic system?

In the past, we used to reverse the cycle and stimulate the economy. Now we use new infrastructure.

Emphasizing the new infrastructure of digital economy means a lot of equipment investment, which forms a new demand here. In my opinion, there is no need for too many advanced processes here.

In this round of cycle, taking advantage of the general price reduction of international electronic components, we integrate the new infrastructure around the layout of the digital economy, and take advantage of the advantages of large countries to counter the systematic risks of the whole industry. In fact, it is also a good way to overtake in a detour.

So you see, why am I worried about the recession and the crisis brought by inventory to the industry while I am full of confidence in China’s chip industry.

But confidence in the industry is different from confidence in the stock price.

On the contrary, the industry whose profits were damaged by the sharp rise of chips earlier has really ushered in a boom.

When China’s chip industry can break through the containment of the United States, chips will not be a high-tech industry.

Yes, let’s smash those pseudo developed countries again.

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