Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
I’ve been paying attention to this matter for a long time. I feel I’d better say a few words.
In our age, some things can only be paid attention to silently. If you want to say a few words, you have to turn a few corners and wipe the corners a few times. It’s very tiring.
The so-called wind of loan suspension roughly means that the owners of uncompleted residential flats report to the group for warmth. They issued a “Notice of compulsory loan suspension”, trying to “protest against loan suspension” in order to resume the uncompleted real estate, so as to ensure their own wealth security.
Take the loan suspension notice of the owner of Jingdezhen Evergrande Longting as an example:
So far, many owners of uncompleted residential buildings across the country have issued “Notice of loan suspension” (the number is still changing), the content is similar, and the core part mainly has two points:
Core 1. Stop repaying bank loans due to the uncompleted development of developers.
Perseverance 2. The loan suspension is to urge developers to resume work by putting pressure on banks.
Seeing these loan suspension news, I personally have two feelings:
1? Bitter.
2? Complex.
The reason why it is bitter is that houses mean too much to Chinese people.
According to the ratio of house price to income in most cities, for most home buyers, high house prices first have to empty six wallets. I hate the so-called “six wallets theory” because it means that consumption in other industries shrinks; But the reality is that buying a house empties most families’ six wallets. If you don’t have to, you will never stop lending.
Second, high housing prices mean decades of mortgage pressure on home buyers.
In modern society, people are basically studying in the first 20 years of their life, and some people even ask to learn after the age of 25. It belongs to the prime of life, usually about 30 years. The loan term of many housing loans is also 30 years. That is to say, many people spend their whole lives paying off loans.
Third, Chinese people have been obsessed with settling down and buying real estate since ancient times, so they are desperate to buy high-priced houses. If you don’t have to, you will never stop lending.
Fourth, another important reason why Chinese people are willing to buy high-priced houses is their trust in the country. Cutting off the loan will affect personal credit investigation. If it is not forced, it will never stop the loan. Therefore, I hope the relevant departments will treat those who stop lending kindly. They are all miserable people and have reason to be angry.
The reason why it is complex is that individuals, developers, banks and the market are intertwined.
Theoretically, there is a line between individuals and developers, because houses are transactions between individuals and developers; There is another line between individuals and banks, because loans are made between individuals and banks; It is not logical for individuals to stop lending because of the poor performance of developers. However, banks are responsible for supervising the use of developers’ funds.
Individuals have no choice but to try to force banks to put pressure on real estate developers by stopping lending. After all, individuals have paid the savings of several generations plus half a lifetime of hard work.
However, banks are also sad. If more loan suspension leads to a follow-up trend (there are many uncompleted buildings in the country), and it will hurt people’s confidence in real estate, it may cause systemic financial risks.
The problem of uncompleted residential flats seems to lie with developers. However, due to the broken capital chain of developers (such as Evergrande), they are basically lying dead, unable to solve the problem of uncompleted residential flats, and they are also very painful. The pain of developers comes from the lack of awesome in the market. House prices are getting higher and higher, and there are fewer and fewer takers.
Therefore, the entanglement between individuals, banks, developers and the market is deeper and deeper, which is extremely complex and painful.
We all know that the root cause of this complex situation is the pre-sale system.
The so-called pre-sale system is equivalent to developers using your money to help you build a house, but in the end it has fallen through.
That’s why individuals are angry. Banks pretend to be innocent. Developers say they are lying dead, and the market says it’s not my pot.
But everyone doesn’t want to change the pre-sale system. The reason is very simple. The pre-sale system once brought too many dividends. For example, the pre-sale system is equivalent to raising funds for developers in advance, which allows banks to make money lying down.
But all the so-called dividends in this world need to be paid. The price of the pre-sale system is that the house price keeps rising, and there needs to be sufficient leeks to keep receiving orders.
The leeks in the market are not made out of thin air. They are all frugal families. When people’s income can’t keep up with the rise of house prices, they lose their qualification to be leeks, so the market will naturally turn cold. Then the developer will naturally lie dead, and the uncompleted residential flats will come.
But now all parties are still pondering the beauty of the pre-sale bonus and have no intention to reform the pre-sale system. Then a similar situation can only drag on. Although all parties are very tired and painful, they can only bear it; Until one day I can’t stand it, I will reform.
From a personal point of view, I hope the relevant departments will sincerely treat the groups who have stopped lending. They are carrying not only families, but also confidence in the market.
