Talk about terrible inventory!

Spread the love

Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)

If the whip doesn’t hit you, you always think it’s fake.

Remember, Maotai’s inventory is different from that of chip factories and mobile phone factories!

I remember a long time ago, when the bulk fell into a dog, I specially went to find those manufacturers with a large amount of inventory in their hands, and collected them into their stock selection pool.

Because there is a very simple logic here. Steel, copper ingots and other products will be produced for a few years, and when the economic cycle restarts, these are valuable things. So a large number of inventories that have been accrued losses due to falling prices will be the hardest financial products when prices rise.

So, what does a little profit and loss on the book count?

And once the bulk cycle starts, all dealers will frantically stock up and replenish, which will cause excessive demand, and the situation of short supply will promote the rapid rise of prices.

Vice versa, when the market looks very good, a wave has reached the peak, and the P / E ratio of every enterprise is extremely low, you have to be vigilant.

In the process of a wave of rise, dealers and downstream enterprises will hoard goods excessively because of greed until the bottom of the Tun can’t be tun. At this time, the market demand will come down again, which will inevitably lead to the weakening of the power to do long, and even the rapid short selling in many ways.

In the process of a wave of decline, to the late stage, that is a very tragic Davis double-click.

Commodity prices and market demand will decline rapidly.

But what if this product has a service life?

Then, in the process of decline, it is even worse, which has become the so-called “three kills”, because every day, with the passage of time, for example, fresh products have passed the shelf life, and the calves have finished, for example, consumer goods, industrial products have become increasingly worthless because of changes in people’s consumption habits, or the development of science and technology.

Think about it, there were chips 10 years ago, right? How much money can you sell from the chip hoarding at that time to now? I’m afraid it can only be disposed of as waste.

Who remembers that the performance of oufeiguang, which was also called oufeiguang technology in 2018, was thunderous? The pre profit of 1.84 billion yuan in the performance express became a net profit loss of 520million yuan in the annual report. The performance changed significantly because the company accrued a total of 2.44 billion yuan of depreciation reserves and cost carry forward related to inventory.

Even without the list of entities in the United States, Oufei technology is still depressed.

I’m not aiming at a technology enterprise. You know, the formation of any production capacity requires huge investment. Where does this money come from? Every penny given by the capital market needs to be repaid. When the market prospect is hot, everyone is happy to expand production capacity, increase investment and increase liabilities.

People who can’t read financial statements often have a naive illusion that the profits that listed companies tell you are real profits.

But you have to know that sometimes profits can precipitate in the form of inventory.

If steel ingots and copper ingots can wait for cycles, the problem is not big, but what if those inventories are electronic products? Do you think you can be really optimistic?

Today, our a-chip sector plummeted. What’s interesting is that there are brick houses shouting that car chips are still in short supply. Don’t be afraid, just wash the dishes.

We look at the world environment. The United States has allocated a large amount of funds to develop chips, which is an old news that everyone knows.

Last year, it was reported that the U.S. Department of Commerce asked all chip manufacturers to send inventory sales data. What do you think Americans want this data for?

Forcing TSMC to invest in the United States, Samsung also has to come.

So after these enterprises expand production capacity, is it to work together to raise prices?

too young too simple.

How did Samsung rise and play Counter cyclical? Then Americans used their own financial instruments to force Japanese competitors to close down when the counter cyclical expansion caused losses.

But have you thought about it? Why can Samsung’s chip manufacturing industry lose money at will and get a steady stream of financial support? Have you ever heard about condemning South Korea for supporting Samsung regardless of financial laws in places like Bloomberg news?

Mobile phones are small and cars are large. Mobile phone chips need high manufacturing process, so it is good to put more functions in a small area. But in such a large place as cars, stability is required, and there is no problem using mature manufacturing process.

Is mature process chip manufacturing really a capacity shortage?

When the epidemic affects the global supply chain, what will manufacturing enterprises do first?

Of course, it is crazy to hoard goods to ensure that they can continue to produce under special circumstances, which suddenly artificially increases demand.

When the demand is large, the price can be raised. When the price soars, I would like to ask you if you are the middle dealer. What would you do? Of course, follow the crazy hoarding and raise the price.

So the more the price rises, the more serious the shortage appears in the market.

Chip manufacturers suddenly entered a very prosperous cycle, but this is just a mirage, and soon the terminal will slap in the face.

The epidemic actually brought about a decline in global demand, which is everywhere in the post epidemic era.

The car is a big project. There are tens of thousands of spare parts. As long as there is one less, the whole car can’t leave the factory. But suddenly one day, the short board was filled, and everyone immediately felt a crazy surplus.

Last year, some people shouted that mobile phone chips were out of stock. Has anyone shouted this year?

The latest news is that Samsung has 50million mobile phones in stock. Can so many mobile phones be valuable in the next quarter?

If you go crazy to reduce prices and inventory, will those who bought cheap mobile phones this year still buy them next year?

There is no innovation in the mobile phone industry, and there is no new technology that makes people feel that they have to change. It is not entirely because young people are lazy to change their mobile phones.

The same is true of mobile phones and cars. This year, many brands of domestic cars have reported that the inventory pressure of dealers has increased, and there are only a few brands that really sell well.

Will you be able to eat so many chip stocks that suddenly pop up with so many best-selling products?

There is also a very despairing chain of disdain in the chip industry. When TSMC was cut off the order of high manufacturing process, the productivity of mature manufacturing process was empty, and many orders originally given to domestic manufacturers would flow to it. There is no way, others’ yield is high, and the cost is cheap, unless you can reduce the price.

Think about it, what does price reduction mean? It means that the so-called stock price has fallen to a reasonable range and the P / E ratio is very low, which was advocated by everyone before, will soon be slapped on the face. The P / E ratio may be negative due to inventory pressure and competitive price reduction.

Unfortunately, every cycle, from loss to reversal, will have a long period of decline for investors.

So do you really understand what inventory pressure means?

By the way, don’t forget that there is also an American emperor who desperately wants to curb the rise of China’s high technology.

People expand their production capacity there in order to create a downward cycle. The United States has a money printing machine. As long as the government prints money, people are not afraid to compete with you in price war.

You have to know why the rise of domestic chips in recent years depends on the price rise of the whole industry. The United States forces everyone to be self-sufficient. Once people use huge and advanced production capacity to suppress China’s chip industry by market means, what should they do?

Whether it is South Korea or Taiwan Province, where is the attitude? Who will people listen to?

Of course, several bigwigs in China’s chip industry must be able to survive, because we have large funds and the state.

Just like BOE, people can lose more than ten years and kill their competitors one by one.

But old shareholders all know that in those ten years, who is not suffering to death?

I’ve been optimistic about China’s chip industry for a long time. One day, TSMC and others will be defeated by our domestic enterprises, but before that, it will certainly not be plain sailing. If you work together, the first thing to kill may be the stock price.

I’m a speculator. Why do I have to suffer this kind of suffering and do something else? Isn’t it fragrant?

Performance can only represent that people have done well in the past. No one will tell you how terrible the inventory hidden in the financial statements is.

The prices of cobalt and nickel have fallen sharply recently. What does this mean?

Who is bearish on future international demand?

On the issue of inventory, I have said many times that demand and supply have been distorted by the epidemic and money printing, but everything will eventually return to normal, or a new balance will be formed. In this state of supply and demand, insufficient demand and excess supply will be exposed.

Financial capital has always been the use of excess, the use of inventory to play the cycle, cutting the leeks of producing countries.

Being vigilant is not a bad thing after all!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.