Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)
On the 19th, the U.S. Senate passed a chips bill to provide subsidies and tax relief worth about $76billion for the semiconductor industry.
The bill, which has been wrangling for two years, ostensibly aims to avoid the shortage of chips in the United States, but actually aims to curb the development of China’s chip manufacturing industry.
The two parties in the United States agree on curbing the development of China’s advanced manufacturing industry, but the specific implementation and the stages of the two sides are quite large, so similarly, the Senate submitted a bill to promote the development of the U.S. chip industry, and the house of Representatives submitted another one. Around some of its provisions, neither party disagrees with the other, and the chip boom cycle will disappear.
Before the Senate bill was passed, the “Capitol Hill stock god” Pelosi’s family quickly bought a large number of chip stocks at a low price. Although this matter was widely reported after it was discovered by the media, so what?
Laugh and scold, let others do it, and I will reap the benefits. The “God of stocks on Capitol Hill” overturned its own property of more than 100 million dollars. During these three years, the income unexpectedly reached an astonishing 96%, which made Buffett next door cry.
Don’t ask, asking is good, don’t pull, pull out is insider trading.
I still remember that in 2019, President Chuan was exposed to manipulate the futures account while running the country on twitter. After the purchase, he immediately sent tweets that were beneficial to his profits through Twitter. It is said that he made billions of dollars easily.
Of course, an expert in trading, it doesn’t matter whether it rises or falls. What people are afraid of is the sideways market. The subject matter is like an electrocardiograph hanging up. It goes in a straight line, and they don’t know how to cry.
However, as long as the market is sensitive to the news, twitter will be bearish all of a sudden, ambush a handful of empty orders early, wait until the market is panicked, the empty orders will be profitable, close positions and backhand long, and then make some good comments. The market fear will disappear, and soon make up for the rise, and the multiple orders will be profitable. Such manipulation back and forth, the yield is really amazing.
So you can see that Chuanbao’s words and deeds are very interesting. What is called cautious words and deeds? The consistency between words and deeds of politicians does not exist. There are frequent contradictions, which surprised the market. The prices of various assets jumped up and down, and the volatility increased significantly, creating a lot of trading value.
Remember Biden’s Ukrainian gate?
In addition to Biden, the leaders of the Democratic Party are the Clintons and Pelosi.
Just think, how much money did they make after they ran to Ukraine and risked so much that they were exposed and almost lost their political lives? And how much can we earn by making asset fluctuations and precise trading by relying on political discourse?
When the whole political world understands, the way many things are played will become more and more nonsense.
You see, I usually have to look at American policies. It’s impossible not to look at the influence of others. Comparing the past with the present, we will find that all kinds of policies in American politics are like a gust of wind.
Of course, you can explain that the two parties share the same views and discriminate against each other. In order to defend the interests of their own small groups, they play the country as a child and come up with many back and forth policies.
But after watching the various coquettish operations of the stock gods on Capitol Hill, will there be new insights?
I often feel that now the United States has taken my script at the end of the Ming Dynasty. It seems that the White House and Congress are full of all kinds of correct and incomparable values. Everyone seems to be defending the great interests of the United States. In fact, under the gorgeous packaging, there are all kinds of private jobs. Everything is to make more money for themselves. If you can make more money, don’t be polite.
Take a look at this year’s US military budget. It was called back once in the house of Representatives. Because the money was less, it was quickly increased. Then it was called back again in the Senate. It was still less, and it had to be increased.
In 2021, the U.S. military expenditure exceeded 800 billion dollars. Then the biggest news of the U.S. military in the whole year is that it was driven out of Afghanistan by the Taliban with AK47. That scene can only be described as flight.
So you see, the United States allocates a huge amount of money to the military every year, but the so-called supervision and audit is just talking. Trump was going to audit the Pentagon, but he didn’t dare to continue after checking. The plane on which the auditors were sent to Afghanistan exploded strangely, leaving no one left. Where is the reason?
So is it important to revitalize the chip industry? Of course it’s important!
Is it worth a lot of money? Of course it’s worth it!
In my opinion, it’s not too much to squeeze out one tenth of the inexplicably high military fees every year to carry out chip strategy. After all, the future belongs to the digital age, and chips are the cornerstone of the digital age.
The capital expenditure of TSMC, a large company, is planned to be $40billion in 2022. Then in a cycle of declining prosperity in the chip industry, the U.S. two parties saw back and forth and made a $76billion subsidy. First, the money was not given at one time, and second, the enterprises that took the money had many restrictions.
For example: 1. It must be a chip manufacturing enterprise; 2. These chip manufacturing enterprises cannot invest in advanced manufacturing processes recognized by the United States in China.
Think about it, where is the largest consumer of chips in the world? Are you American?
At present, China’s chip manufacturing enterprises are catching up in the middle and low end, and now China’s chip imports are reduced by an average of 200million chips per day, which forces overseas production enterprises to have excess capacity.
In business, you are still playing the game of shutting down the country and cutting off supply, which is to hand over market share to local manufacturing enterprises in China.
It’s really clever to use such a little money as a bait to trick domestic enterprises to end the Chinese market by themselves!
Then the problem comes. A company that seriously engages in production and wants to make the enterprise bigger is impossible to accept this condition. People who can accept the condition basically cheat subsidies.
Therefore, the chip bill has not been passed, and many American media have predicted that the subsidy money will not be used for production in the end, but will be used to buy back shares.
Then the market predicted this prediction. When the bill seemed to have an eyebrow, chip stocks first rose sharply.
Only fools will spend their money on production. If there is a labor force with its own dry food, such as TSMC, what does it need to have its own factory? Amd just relies on looking for TSMC OEM to press the self-produced Intel to death?
The so-called TSMC’s advanced manufacturing plant in the United States, which has been hyped before, is quite similar to the Foxconn factory in the United States, which Gou fooled trump a few years ago. It’s all a pit.
Foxconn’s previous excuse was that American employment was too good to find enough workers and could not do it.
Now TSMC almost says the same thing. The United States can’t find engineers who can work overtime.
Before, some people on the Internet ridiculed that this was the performance of high human rights and respect for scientific and technological talents in the United States.
Have you ever heard of the saying that rarity is the most valuable thing?
How could the United States not have engineers willing to work overtime 40 years ago? As long as you give enough benefits, someone is willing to die.
But after decades of deindustrialization, the financial service industry is booming. Wouldn’t it be more fragrant for a person with enough intelligence and perseverance to become a hardware engineer to change his profession to engage in financial services?
I’ve seen the experience of New Wall Street investment bankers getting involved in death, and I also know the crazy introversion of first-line doctors in the United States when they first entered the profession. Dare you say 965 needs double cultivation, climb it for me immediately.
Why? Because of the continuous supply of new people in the industry, everyone is fighting.
But you see, in the real engineering related industries, engineers have long been dating. It is difficult for you to find enough employees, and you have the face to let others work to death? What spring and autumn dream do you have.
It is said that Tsinghua graduates account for a high proportion in Musk’s SpaceX. With the vigilance of the United States for Chinese Americans in high-tech and cutting-edge industries, why should we use Tsinghua workers so vigorously?
Because they really can’t find enough people from other ethnic groups to do this.
Before musk came to China to open a factory, he was frequently facing bankruptcy and lived on the money of selling feelings A. as soon as China’s super factory opened, he immediately became the richest man in the world.
Later, Lao Ma would use wechat and was greatly appreciated. At one time, he planned to buy twitter to copy it. Let alone that I despised Americans and couldn’t copy it well for them.
Zuckerberg copied Tik tok for so long, any news?
If Amazon competes in the same dimension, it can’t compete with jd.com, Taobao and pinduoduo.
Wechat has long swept through the circle of friends to socialize, and there is no way for other families to survive.
Why? Because we are too busy, we can’t work until we are 35 years old. Immediately, a large number of fresh labor force come to the top. In order to prove our value, we keep updating and constantly pondering the user experience.
In the past, industrial design made in China couldn’t keep up. Now you can see the design of those brands. As long as the design can be positively fed back by the market, all kinds of high-level designs will hit European and American counterparts.
I used Apple mobile phone for the first time in 2009. I lamented that Chinese enterprises can’t catch up with them even if they drive planes.
In 2022, I used iphone13 to compare Huawei mate40 released a year earlier. The industrial design of the two came out at once. Apple is really a little rough.
Look at the chip. I don’t know how good apple’s A15 running data is, but I know that playing games can burn your hands, and you won’t lose your life if the signal gets stuck.
So what is the fundamental problem? We have a huge engineering base. Once a directional thing is broken through, as long as there is financial support, we can really make great efforts to achieve miracles.
In the United States, the first factor of production, high-quality producers, has disappeared. Where do high intelligence groups flow? You can praise others for their awesome start-ups, but what does modern industrial application need? It’s not a few genius’s flash, but a large number of basic talents who keep working.
Is it possible for chips in the United States to have such a foundation now?
If there is no foundation and you just throw money inside, why don’t you let enterprises misappropriate money to speculate in stocks?
After all, even Pelosi knows that the stock market can create a miracle of compound interest, which is more fragrant than betraying the country.
Of course, if the world is still in a state of extreme chip shortage, and you can get super profits by doing anything at will, I believe the chip factories in the United States will also do it.
But you have to know that the so-called industrial competition is all national competition. Why do you think that in the big Eastern countries, we can be quiet?
I still remember that photovoltaic was a real high-tech industry, and Wuxi Suntech had infinite scenery.
After the crazy roll up, the world is full of bankrupt photovoltaic enterprises. Of course, Suntech is also over.
However, under a sea of blood, the world’s photovoltaic capacity is basically monopolized by China.
So you see, when the excitement rises, it is necessary to reverse the cycle. Increasing the production capacity of chips requires a huge amount of money. Not everyone can afford this money. What should we do if we lose?
And the advantage of China is the whole industrial chain. We can subsidize the downstream enterprises to prosper with the loss of chips.
Just look at the example of BOE in those years. Relying on the continuous loss of his panel for more than ten years, Chinese household appliance enterprises have laid down their peers all over the world, and then turn around and let the panel earn money for several years.
If you are not in the whole industry chain, dare you play like this?
As for the so-called production outsourcing, many people will find it a huge sinkhole in the end.
Why is Apple’s design getting uglier and uglier? There are no products that shine in front of you in the former position?
Because the United States is too far away from the production end, the fit between industrial design and industrial production was not understood in the past. But you have to know that as long as this thing has a direction and dares to roll money into it, the production end will follow closely and grow very fast.
The recession in the United States is inevitable, and some things are really difficult to reverse.
The bitter days of the whole chip industry are inevitable, which is the inevitable result of the competition between big countries.