The Abe effect is coming! The situation in Japanese politics has changed dramatically!

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Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668

Abe’s death is definitely not that simple. Its effect will be a massive earthquake for Japanese politics, which will pose a major challenge to Japan’s domestic, geopolitical and regional peace and stability in the future. Japan is likely to accelerate towards the extreme right and even revive militarism next. This is Zhanhao’s judgment in the analysis and comments on the day of Abe’s assassination. For relevant contents, please refer to the article “exposure of the deep causes of Abe’s assassination!” (click blue to check).

As a result, the voice did not fall, and it was preliminarily verified just two days later.

According to Japanese media reports on July 11, the results of the 26th senatorial election in Japan were released on July 10. The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and the Komeito party not only won a majority of seats, but even the “constitutional amendment forces” as a whole made a complete breakthrough in this parliamentary election. The party forces supporting the constitutional amendment won 95 of the 125 re-election seats and a total of 179 Senate seats, accounting for 73% of the 245 seats, exceeding the requirement of more than two-thirds of the seats required for the constitutional amendment. The constitutional democratic party, the largest opposition party on the left, suffered a setback in this election, winning only 17 seats. Japanese media speculated that the parliament would probably start the constitutional amendment process.

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For such a result, Zhanhao immediately issued a pre judgment on Sina Weibo after the news of Abe’s assassination, in which he particularly emphasized that Abe and this will not only not reverse the trend of Japan’s right leaning, but also accelerate towards the extreme right, and may make militarism rapidly expand again in Japan.

Why did Japan accelerate its move to the far right and militarization? There are two reasons:

The first reason: Abe is the most influential politician in Japan at present, and he already has a huge base of supporters. Earlier, he promoted the development of Japanese politics to the extreme right, and the promotion of constitutional amendment is only one step away from success. However, his assassination this time will make the Japanese people sympathize with him, and therefore have emotional resonance, so Japan’s support for constitutional amendment and militarism will rapidly increase.

The second reason is that Japan’s right-wing political forces will accelerate to unite with Abe’s ideological forces and purge the left-wing forces. Originally, the right-wing forces are much stronger than the left-wing forces. After Abe’s assassination, the right-wing forces will inevitably surround and suppress the left-wing forces. The right-wing forces will not be weakened after this incident, but will be strengthened because of the attack on the left-wing forces.

Next, in order to consolidate his political power, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will actively promote the amendment of the constitution. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for him to establish a self-centered political family, and he will not miss it. After Abe’s assassination, Kishida immediately called Biden to show his loyalty and stressed that he was the heir to Abe’s estate. After being affirmed by the United States, he will inevitably take actions in Japan, one of which is to use constitutional amendment to win over the political forces of Abe faction.

In fact, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly expressed his intention to promote the amendment of the constitution, including the explicit inclusion of Article 9 of the constitution into the content related to the self defense forces. On July 10, he also announced in the TV program that he would promote the constitutional amendment motion as soon as possible and put it to a referendum. Obviously, Fumio Kishida wants to strike while the iron is hot and achieve a breakthrough in amending the constitution at one stroke while the impact of Abe’s death is still there. This is not only in line with his political goals, but also conducive to his uniting Abe forces around him, so as to form his own political faction.

If you remember, when Fumio Kishida was elected Prime Minister of Japan, many people believed that Fumio Kishida’s political position was moderate, his attitude towards China should be relatively friendly, and he would not actively promote the amendment of the constitution. At that time, Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) pointed out in the article that Fumio Kishida would not only not follow the line of friendship with China, but also accelerate Anti China in the future, and would be more active in promoting constitutional amendment than Abe.

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Japan’s promotion of constitutional amendment has a very close relationship with Abe. As early as 2007, when Abe first served as prime minister, he had already started to promote it, and voted to pass the national voting law amending the constitutional procedure in debris. Later, after Abe stepped down, the process of amending the constitution was shelved, but in 2012, after Abe took office for the second time, he put forward the constitutional amendment plan again, but later, the domestic opposition forces were too heavy, there were large-scale demonstrations, and his support rate continued to decline. In addition, the United States has been secretive about Japan on the issue of amending the constitution, which forced Abe to postpone the process of amending the constitution. However, as Zhanhao emphasized in his analysis at that time, Abe cannot give up amending the constitution. He will continue to promote it when the United States urgently needs Japan and when the domestic public opinion atmosphere in Japan is appropriate.

Now, for Japan, no matter how much the United States needs Japan, as well as the domestic public opinion environment brought about by Abe’s death, it is time for the constitution to be amended. Therefore, after he left office in September 2020, both his successor Kan Yiwei and later Fumio Kishida emphasized his willingness to amend the constitution. In particular, Kan Yiwei stepped down, largely because he failed to promote the constitutional amendment issue, which gradually lost Abe’s support for him, making him step down as Prime Minister for one year.

Last year, in the 49th general election of the house of representatives of Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Komeito party, the Reform Commission and the National Democratic Party, which supported the constitutional amendment, won a total of 346 seats, accounting for 74.4% of the 465 seats in the house of Representatives, more than two-thirds of the seats. Today, the number of seats in both houses of Congress supporting the amendment of the constitution is far more than two-thirds, which means that the legal conditions for the amendment of the constitution have been met, leaving only the referendum. Earlier, the reason why Abe’s constitutional amendment did not advance to the referendum was that, in addition to some technical factors, it did not receive enough public support and affirmation from the United States, but now it is different. The geographical needs of the United States for Japan and the nationalist sentiment brought about by Abe’s death will make Japan’s constitutional amendment successful in the near future.

At the same time that Japan realizes the constitutional amendment, it is also a high probability that Japan will move towards new militarism. It will rapidly expand its military spending and raise its defense budget to 2% as soon as possible, and even exceed 2% in the future.

Some people may ask, is constitutional amendment really that important to Japan? Yes, Japan has been seeking two things: National normalization and external expansion. The current constitution of Japan was formulated under the leadership of the United States after World War II, and its core is the content of Article 9 of the Constitution: Japanese citizens sincerely hope for international peace based on justice and order, and never give up wars launched by national sovereignty and the threat or use of force as a means to resolve international disputes; In order to achieve the former project, the land, sea, air force and other combat capabilities will not be retained. Do not recognize the belligerent right of the country.

It is the expression of Article 9 that Japan’s constitution is also known as the “constitution of peace”. However, the constitutional amendment that Japan wants to achieve is mainly to amend this article 9, and write it into the Japanese constitution after changing Japan’s self defense force into a similar national defense force, so as to realize the so-called “normalization” of Japan. The essence of Japan’s so-called “normalization” is that Japan has become a “normal country” with the right to wage war. If the United States had doubts about this clause in the past, considering the current situation of the United States to suppress China and the strategic intention of the United States to provoke military conflicts around China and promote the new cold war, the United States has begun to support Japan’s constitutional amendment, or at least acquiesce in its constitutional amendment.

The fundamental reason why public opinion in Japan will also support the amendment of the constitution this time lies in three points:

First, under the propaganda of Japan’s ruling coalition, public opinion in Japan has become more rightist in the past few years.

Second, the trend of geopolitical development is accelerating to promote Japan’s right deviation, especially the support of the United States has a great impact on Japan.

Third, the death of Abe has made public opinion more inclined to support Abe’s view, and many of the original centrists will turn to support Abe’s constitutional amendment position.

Next, there will be sudden changes in Japanese politics, and even major events. However, no matter how it develops, its position of amending the Constitution and opposing China will not change. We should have a clear understanding of this. It is right to make strategic detours in terms of means, because that will increase the cost of the game within Japan, but do not expect Japanese politics to turn in the long term in the future. When will China and Japan be truly friendly? Either China defeats Japan, or the United States retreats to America!

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